Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September-December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century
Chemistry-Climate Model Validation phase 2 (CCMVal-2) model simulations are used to analyze Antarctic ozone increases in 2000–2100 during local spring and early summer, both vertically integrated and at several pressure levels in the lower stratosphere. Multi-model median trends of monthly zonal mea...
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ftunivadelaidedl:oai:digital.library.adelaide.edu.au:2440/96009 2023-12-17T10:22:12+01:00 Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September-December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century Siddaway, J. Petelina, S. Karoly, D. Klekociuk, A. Dargaville, R. 2013 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2440/96009 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 en eng European Geosciences Union (EGU) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2013; 13(8):4413-4427 1680-7316 1680-7324 http://hdl.handle.net/2440/96009 doi:10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 Klekociuk, A. [0000-0003-3335-0034] © Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 Journal article 2013 ftunivadelaidedl https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 2023-11-20T23:33:47Z Chemistry-Climate Model Validation phase 2 (CCMVal-2) model simulations are used to analyze Antarctic ozone increases in 2000–2100 during local spring and early summer, both vertically integrated and at several pressure levels in the lower stratosphere. Multi-model median trends of monthly zonal mean total ozone column (TOC), ozone volume mixing ratio (VMR), wind speed and temperature poleward of 60° S are investigated. Median values are used to account for large variability in models, and the associated uncertainty is calculated using a bootstrapping technique. According to the trend derived from the twelve CCMVal-2 models selected, Antarctic TOC will not return to a 1965 baseline, an average of 1960–1969 values, by the end of the 21st century in September–November, but will return in ~2080 in December. The speed of December ozone depletion before 2000 was slower compared to spring months, and thus the decadal rate of December TOC increase after 2000 is also slower. Projected trends in December ozone VMR at 20–100 hPa show a much slower rate of ozone recovery, particularly at 50–70 hPa, than for spring months. Trends in temperature and winds at 20–150 hPa are also analyzed in order to attribute the projected slow increase of December ozone and to investigate future changes in the Antarctic atmosphere in general, including some aspects of the polar vortex breakup. J. M. Siddaway, S. V. Petelina, D. J. Karoly, A. R. Klekociuk, and R. J. Dargaville Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic The University of Adelaide: Digital Library Antarctic The Antarctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13 8 4413 4427 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The University of Adelaide: Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftunivadelaidedl |
language |
English |
description |
Chemistry-Climate Model Validation phase 2 (CCMVal-2) model simulations are used to analyze Antarctic ozone increases in 2000–2100 during local spring and early summer, both vertically integrated and at several pressure levels in the lower stratosphere. Multi-model median trends of monthly zonal mean total ozone column (TOC), ozone volume mixing ratio (VMR), wind speed and temperature poleward of 60° S are investigated. Median values are used to account for large variability in models, and the associated uncertainty is calculated using a bootstrapping technique. According to the trend derived from the twelve CCMVal-2 models selected, Antarctic TOC will not return to a 1965 baseline, an average of 1960–1969 values, by the end of the 21st century in September–November, but will return in ~2080 in December. The speed of December ozone depletion before 2000 was slower compared to spring months, and thus the decadal rate of December TOC increase after 2000 is also slower. Projected trends in December ozone VMR at 20–100 hPa show a much slower rate of ozone recovery, particularly at 50–70 hPa, than for spring months. Trends in temperature and winds at 20–150 hPa are also analyzed in order to attribute the projected slow increase of December ozone and to investigate future changes in the Antarctic atmosphere in general, including some aspects of the polar vortex breakup. J. M. Siddaway, S. V. Petelina, D. J. Karoly, A. R. Klekociuk, and R. J. Dargaville |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Siddaway, J. Petelina, S. Karoly, D. Klekociuk, A. Dargaville, R. |
spellingShingle |
Siddaway, J. Petelina, S. Karoly, D. Klekociuk, A. Dargaville, R. Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September-December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
author_facet |
Siddaway, J. Petelina, S. Karoly, D. Klekociuk, A. Dargaville, R. |
author_sort |
Siddaway, J. |
title |
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September-December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
title_short |
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September-December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
title_full |
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September-December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September-December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September-December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
title_sort |
evolution of antarctic ozone in september-december predicted by ccmval-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union (EGU) |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2440/96009 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 |
op_relation |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2013; 13(8):4413-4427 1680-7316 1680-7324 http://hdl.handle.net/2440/96009 doi:10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 Klekociuk, A. [0000-0003-3335-0034] |
op_rights |
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
4413 |
op_container_end_page |
4427 |
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1785544712539602944 |