Climatic influences on rainfall and runoff variability in the southeast region of the Murray-Darling Basin
The aim of this study is to establish a relationship between 11 correlated climatic indices and rainfall and runoff in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). The climatic indices are functions of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) differentials. There are six Pacific Ocean indices,...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2440/78959 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3422 |
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ftunivadelaidedl:oai:digital.library.adelaide.edu.au:2440/78959 2023-12-17T10:50:33+01:00 Climatic influences on rainfall and runoff variability in the southeast region of the Murray-Darling Basin Kamruzzaman, M. Beecham, S. Metcalfe, A. 2013 http://hdl.handle.net/2440/78959 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3422 en eng John Wiley & Sons Ltd http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP0877707 International Journal of Climatology, 2013; 33(2):291-311 0899-8418 1097-0088 http://hdl.handle.net/2440/78959 doi:10.1002/joc.3422 Metcalfe, A. [0000-0002-7680-3577] Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3422 regression model correlation factor analysis and pre-whitened process Akaike Information Criterion Journal article 2013 ftunivadelaidedl https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3422 2023-11-20T23:33:02Z The aim of this study is to establish a relationship between 11 correlated climatic indices and rainfall and runoff in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). The climatic indices are functions of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) differentials. There are six Pacific Ocean indices, three Atlantic Ocean indices, one Indian Ocean index and one from the Southern Ocean. Trends in the climatic indices are investigated by fitting seasonal trend models using generalized least squares. Relationships between the indices are described by correlation analysis and factor analysis. Correlation analysis of the pre-whitened series is first presented and this is used to guide the choice of climatic indices for the regression models. Regression analyses are then used to investigate the effects of climatic indices on rainfall and runoff at the monthly level during the period 1957–2009. This is undertaken using data from three stations in the southeast region of the MDB, namely Tooma River Basin, Jingellic Catchment and Ovens Catchment. Regression models are fitted using all or a sub-set of the climatic indices and their interactions, and these are compared with regression models based on estimates of latent factors and their interactions. Typical R2 values of 20% were obtained. The Akaike Information Criterion indicated that statistically significant improvement could be obtained from a benchmark model using seasonality, trends and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). However, the gain in information is generally modest. This conclusion is specific to the southeast region of the MDB, but the methods used are generally applicable. M. Kamruzzaman, S. Beecham and A. V. Metcalfe Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean The University of Adelaide: Digital Library Southern Ocean Pacific Indian Soi ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) Metcalfe ENVELOPE(-66.942,-66.942,-67.976,-67.976) International Journal of Climatology 33 2 291 311 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The University of Adelaide: Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftunivadelaidedl |
language |
English |
topic |
regression model correlation factor analysis and pre-whitened process Akaike Information Criterion |
spellingShingle |
regression model correlation factor analysis and pre-whitened process Akaike Information Criterion Kamruzzaman, M. Beecham, S. Metcalfe, A. Climatic influences on rainfall and runoff variability in the southeast region of the Murray-Darling Basin |
topic_facet |
regression model correlation factor analysis and pre-whitened process Akaike Information Criterion |
description |
The aim of this study is to establish a relationship between 11 correlated climatic indices and rainfall and runoff in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). The climatic indices are functions of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) differentials. There are six Pacific Ocean indices, three Atlantic Ocean indices, one Indian Ocean index and one from the Southern Ocean. Trends in the climatic indices are investigated by fitting seasonal trend models using generalized least squares. Relationships between the indices are described by correlation analysis and factor analysis. Correlation analysis of the pre-whitened series is first presented and this is used to guide the choice of climatic indices for the regression models. Regression analyses are then used to investigate the effects of climatic indices on rainfall and runoff at the monthly level during the period 1957–2009. This is undertaken using data from three stations in the southeast region of the MDB, namely Tooma River Basin, Jingellic Catchment and Ovens Catchment. Regression models are fitted using all or a sub-set of the climatic indices and their interactions, and these are compared with regression models based on estimates of latent factors and their interactions. Typical R2 values of 20% were obtained. The Akaike Information Criterion indicated that statistically significant improvement could be obtained from a benchmark model using seasonality, trends and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). However, the gain in information is generally modest. This conclusion is specific to the southeast region of the MDB, but the methods used are generally applicable. M. Kamruzzaman, S. Beecham and A. V. Metcalfe |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kamruzzaman, M. Beecham, S. Metcalfe, A. |
author_facet |
Kamruzzaman, M. Beecham, S. Metcalfe, A. |
author_sort |
Kamruzzaman, M. |
title |
Climatic influences on rainfall and runoff variability in the southeast region of the Murray-Darling Basin |
title_short |
Climatic influences on rainfall and runoff variability in the southeast region of the Murray-Darling Basin |
title_full |
Climatic influences on rainfall and runoff variability in the southeast region of the Murray-Darling Basin |
title_fullStr |
Climatic influences on rainfall and runoff variability in the southeast region of the Murray-Darling Basin |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climatic influences on rainfall and runoff variability in the southeast region of the Murray-Darling Basin |
title_sort |
climatic influences on rainfall and runoff variability in the southeast region of the murray-darling basin |
publisher |
John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2440/78959 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3422 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) ENVELOPE(-66.942,-66.942,-67.976,-67.976) |
geographic |
Southern Ocean Pacific Indian Soi Metcalfe |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean Pacific Indian Soi Metcalfe |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3422 |
op_relation |
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP0877707 International Journal of Climatology, 2013; 33(2):291-311 0899-8418 1097-0088 http://hdl.handle.net/2440/78959 doi:10.1002/joc.3422 Metcalfe, A. [0000-0002-7680-3577] |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3422 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
33 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
291 |
op_container_end_page |
311 |
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1785575447907532800 |