Svalbard and Conflict Management in a Changing Climate
Conflict in the Arctic is nothing new, and Svalbard is a geographical confluence of factors that create the potential for inter-group violence. The purpose of this paper is to explore those factors, identifying approaches to the evaluation of their associated risk. The emphasis is on biomarine resou...
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2020
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ftunitroemsoe:oai:ojs.henry.ub.uit.no:article/5027 2023-05-15T14:50:48+02:00 Svalbard and Conflict Management in a Changing Climate Ash, John 2020-02-01 application/pdf https://septentrio.uit.no/index.php/nordlit/article/view/5027 https://doi.org/10.7557/13.5027 eng eng Septentrio Academic Publishing https://septentrio.uit.no/index.php/nordlit/article/view/5027/4748 https://septentrio.uit.no/index.php/nordlit/article/view/5027 doi:10.7557/13.5027 Copyright (c) 2020 John Ash http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Nordlit; No 45 (2020): Svalbard Studies; 56–85 Nordlit; Nr 45 (2020): Svalbard Studies; 56–85 1503-2086 0809-1668 Arctic climate change conflict risk Svalbard info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed article Fagfellevurdert artikkel 2020 ftunitroemsoe https://doi.org/10.7557/13.5027 2021-08-16T15:57:45Z Conflict in the Arctic is nothing new, and Svalbard is a geographical confluence of factors that create the potential for inter-group violence. The purpose of this paper is to explore those factors, identifying approaches to the evaluation of their associated risk. The emphasis is on biomarine resources, which at present constitute the most likely focus for escalating disputes. Contributory factors, including the catalytic effects of climate change, will also be considered. Given the political progress that has been achieved recently, the most likely situation for an intense interstate conflict in the short term is one that spreads tothe Arctic, rather than one igniting within it. However, as the century progresses, dormant problems relating to the Svalbard archipelago will combine with environmental, economic and political trends to exacerbate conflict risk. Traditionally, armed conflict has been viewed as a phenomenon that cannot be predicted. This view is identified as dangerously misleading. Using a risk based approach and noting advances in analytical techniques, representative scenarios in which conflict may occur are examined and prospective methods of risk management identified. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Svalbard University of Tromsø: Septentrio Academic Publishing Arctic Svalbard Svalbard Archipelago Nordlit 45 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tromsø: Septentrio Academic Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftunitroemsoe |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic climate change conflict risk Svalbard |
spellingShingle |
Arctic climate change conflict risk Svalbard Ash, John Svalbard and Conflict Management in a Changing Climate |
topic_facet |
Arctic climate change conflict risk Svalbard |
description |
Conflict in the Arctic is nothing new, and Svalbard is a geographical confluence of factors that create the potential for inter-group violence. The purpose of this paper is to explore those factors, identifying approaches to the evaluation of their associated risk. The emphasis is on biomarine resources, which at present constitute the most likely focus for escalating disputes. Contributory factors, including the catalytic effects of climate change, will also be considered. Given the political progress that has been achieved recently, the most likely situation for an intense interstate conflict in the short term is one that spreads tothe Arctic, rather than one igniting within it. However, as the century progresses, dormant problems relating to the Svalbard archipelago will combine with environmental, economic and political trends to exacerbate conflict risk. Traditionally, armed conflict has been viewed as a phenomenon that cannot be predicted. This view is identified as dangerously misleading. Using a risk based approach and noting advances in analytical techniques, representative scenarios in which conflict may occur are examined and prospective methods of risk management identified. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ash, John |
author_facet |
Ash, John |
author_sort |
Ash, John |
title |
Svalbard and Conflict Management in a Changing Climate |
title_short |
Svalbard and Conflict Management in a Changing Climate |
title_full |
Svalbard and Conflict Management in a Changing Climate |
title_fullStr |
Svalbard and Conflict Management in a Changing Climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Svalbard and Conflict Management in a Changing Climate |
title_sort |
svalbard and conflict management in a changing climate |
publisher |
Septentrio Academic Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://septentrio.uit.no/index.php/nordlit/article/view/5027 https://doi.org/10.7557/13.5027 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard Svalbard Archipelago |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard Svalbard Archipelago |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Svalbard |
op_source |
Nordlit; No 45 (2020): Svalbard Studies; 56–85 Nordlit; Nr 45 (2020): Svalbard Studies; 56–85 1503-2086 0809-1668 |
op_relation |
https://septentrio.uit.no/index.php/nordlit/article/view/5027/4748 https://septentrio.uit.no/index.php/nordlit/article/view/5027 doi:10.7557/13.5027 |
op_rights |
Copyright (c) 2020 John Ash http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7557/13.5027 |
container_title |
Nordlit |
container_issue |
45 |
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1766321855476531200 |