A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impactâ€Low Likelihood Climate Risks
An important component of the risks from climate change arises from outcomes that are very unlikely, but whose impacts if they were to occur would be extremely severe. Examples include levels of surface warming, or changes in the water cycle, that are at the extreme of plausible ranges, or crossing...
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/278664 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003369 |
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ftunistlouisbrus:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:278664 2024-05-12T08:05:24+00:00 A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impactâ€Low Likelihood Climate Risks Wood, Richard A. Crucifix, Michel Lenton, Timothy M. Mach, Katharine J. Moore, Crystal New, Mark Sharpe, Simon Stocker, Thomas F. Sutton, Rowan T. UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2023 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/278664 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003369 eng eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) boreal:278664 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/278664 doi:10.1029/2022ef003369 urn:ISSN:2328-4277 urn:EISSN:2328-4277 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Earth's Future, Vol. 11, no.4 (2023) climate risk climate extremes strorylines compound extremes early warning tipping points info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2023 ftunistlouisbrus https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003369 2024-04-18T17:01:52Z An important component of the risks from climate change arises from outcomes that are very unlikely, but whose impacts if they were to occur would be extremely severe. Examples include levels of surface warming, or changes in the water cycle, that are at the extreme of plausible ranges, or crossing of a climate system “tipping point†such as ice sheet or ocean circulation instability. If such changes were to occur their impacts on infrastructure or ecosystems may exceed existing plans for adaptation. The traditional approach of ensemble climate change projections is not well suited to managing these High Impact-Low Likelihood (HILL) risks, where the objective is to “prepare for the worst†rather than to “plan for what's likely.†In this paper we draw together a number of ideas from recent literature, to classify four types of HILL climate outcome and to propose the development of a practical “toolkit†of physical climate information that can be used in future to inform HILL risk management. The toolkit consists of several elements that would need to be developed for each plausible HILL climate outcome, then deployed individually to develop targeted HILL risk management approaches for individual sectors. We argue that development of the HILL toolkit should be an important focus for physical climate research over the coming decade, and that the time is right for a focused assessment of HILL risks by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its 7th Assessment Cycle. © 2023 Crown copyright and The Authors. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet DIAL@USL-B (Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles) Earth's Future 11 4 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
DIAL@USL-B (Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles) |
op_collection_id |
ftunistlouisbrus |
language |
English |
topic |
climate risk climate extremes strorylines compound extremes early warning tipping points |
spellingShingle |
climate risk climate extremes strorylines compound extremes early warning tipping points Wood, Richard A. Crucifix, Michel Lenton, Timothy M. Mach, Katharine J. Moore, Crystal New, Mark Sharpe, Simon Stocker, Thomas F. Sutton, Rowan T. A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impactâ€Low Likelihood Climate Risks |
topic_facet |
climate risk climate extremes strorylines compound extremes early warning tipping points |
description |
An important component of the risks from climate change arises from outcomes that are very unlikely, but whose impacts if they were to occur would be extremely severe. Examples include levels of surface warming, or changes in the water cycle, that are at the extreme of plausible ranges, or crossing of a climate system “tipping point†such as ice sheet or ocean circulation instability. If such changes were to occur their impacts on infrastructure or ecosystems may exceed existing plans for adaptation. The traditional approach of ensemble climate change projections is not well suited to managing these High Impact-Low Likelihood (HILL) risks, where the objective is to “prepare for the worst†rather than to “plan for what's likely.†In this paper we draw together a number of ideas from recent literature, to classify four types of HILL climate outcome and to propose the development of a practical “toolkit†of physical climate information that can be used in future to inform HILL risk management. The toolkit consists of several elements that would need to be developed for each plausible HILL climate outcome, then deployed individually to develop targeted HILL risk management approaches for individual sectors. We argue that development of the HILL toolkit should be an important focus for physical climate research over the coming decade, and that the time is right for a focused assessment of HILL risks by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its 7th Assessment Cycle. © 2023 Crown copyright and The Authors. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland. |
author2 |
UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wood, Richard A. Crucifix, Michel Lenton, Timothy M. Mach, Katharine J. Moore, Crystal New, Mark Sharpe, Simon Stocker, Thomas F. Sutton, Rowan T. |
author_facet |
Wood, Richard A. Crucifix, Michel Lenton, Timothy M. Mach, Katharine J. Moore, Crystal New, Mark Sharpe, Simon Stocker, Thomas F. Sutton, Rowan T. |
author_sort |
Wood, Richard A. |
title |
A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impactâ€Low Likelihood Climate Risks |
title_short |
A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impactâ€Low Likelihood Climate Risks |
title_full |
A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impactâ€Low Likelihood Climate Risks |
title_fullStr |
A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impactâ€Low Likelihood Climate Risks |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impactâ€Low Likelihood Climate Risks |
title_sort |
climate science toolkit for high impactâ€low likelihood climate risks |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/278664 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003369 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Earth's Future, Vol. 11, no.4 (2023) |
op_relation |
boreal:278664 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/278664 doi:10.1029/2022ef003369 urn:ISSN:2328-4277 urn:EISSN:2328-4277 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003369 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
4 |
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1798847703789076480 |