Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change. We perform our study using a fully coupled mo...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/276297 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 |
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ftunistlouisbrus:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:276297 2024-05-12T07:53:47+00:00 Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model Lembo, V. Lucarini, V. Ragone, Francesco UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2020 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/276297 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 eng eng boreal:276297 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/276297 doi:10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 urn:ISSN:2045-2322 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, no.1, p. - (2020) info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2020 ftunistlouisbrus https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 2024-04-18T17:04:35Z Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change. We perform our study using a fully coupled model - MPI-ESM v.1.2 - and for the first time we prove the effectiveness of response theory in predicting future climate response to CO2 increase on a vast range of temporal scales, from inter-annual to centennial, and for very diverse climatic variables. We investigate within a unified perspective the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity, and assess the role of fast and slow processes. The prediction of the ocean heat uptake highlights the very slow relaxation to a newly established steady state. The change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is accurately predicted. The AMOC strength is initially reduced and then undergoes a slow and partial recovery. The ACC strength initially increases due to changes in the wind stress, then undergoes a slowdown, followed by a recovery leading to a overshoot with respect to the initial value. Finally, we are able to predict accurately the temperature change in the North Atlantic. © 2020, The Author(s). Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic DIAL@USL-B (Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles) Antarctic The Antarctic Scientific Reports 10 1 |
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DIAL@USL-B (Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles) |
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ftunistlouisbrus |
language |
English |
description |
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change. We perform our study using a fully coupled model - MPI-ESM v.1.2 - and for the first time we prove the effectiveness of response theory in predicting future climate response to CO2 increase on a vast range of temporal scales, from inter-annual to centennial, and for very diverse climatic variables. We investigate within a unified perspective the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity, and assess the role of fast and slow processes. The prediction of the ocean heat uptake highlights the very slow relaxation to a newly established steady state. The change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is accurately predicted. The AMOC strength is initially reduced and then undergoes a slow and partial recovery. The ACC strength initially increases due to changes in the wind stress, then undergoes a slowdown, followed by a recovery leading to a overshoot with respect to the initial value. Finally, we are able to predict accurately the temperature change in the North Atlantic. © 2020, The Author(s). |
author2 |
UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lembo, V. Lucarini, V. Ragone, Francesco |
spellingShingle |
Lembo, V. Lucarini, V. Ragone, Francesco Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model |
author_facet |
Lembo, V. Lucarini, V. Ragone, Francesco |
author_sort |
Lembo, V. |
title |
Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model |
title_short |
Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model |
title_full |
Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model |
title_fullStr |
Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model |
title_sort |
beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/276297 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic |
op_source |
Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, no.1, p. - (2020) |
op_relation |
boreal:276297 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/276297 doi:10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 urn:ISSN:2045-2322 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
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10 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1798844689919508480 |