Causal Links Between Arctic Sea Ice and Its Potential Drivers Based on the Rate of Information Transfer

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Docquier, D., Vannitsem, S., Ragone, Francesco, Wyser, K., Liang, X.S.
• Other Authors: UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2022
• Subjects: Arctic sea ice; climate change; climate modeling; information transfer; Atmospheric temperature; Climate models; Heat transfer; Oceanography; Surface waters; Air temperature; Cause-effect relationships; Information flows; Information transfers; Ocean heat transport; Swedishs; Sea ice; global climate; volume; Arctic Ocean; Sweden; Arctic; Climate change
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/276274; https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095892

Arctic sea ice has substantially changed over the past four decades, with a large decrease in sea-ice area and volume. The exact causes of these changes are not entirely known. In our study, we make use of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble. This ensemble consists of 50 members realized with the EC-Earth3 global climate model and covers the period 1970-2100. We apply for the first time the Liang-Kleeman information flow method to analyze the cause-effect relationships between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers. We show that recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice are mainly driven by air and sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat transport. Conversely, changes in Arctic sea ice also considerably impact temperature and ocean heat transport. Finally, we find a progressive decrease in the influence of sea-ice area and volume on air temperature and ocean heat transport through the twenty-first century. © 2022. The Authors.