West Antarctic Surface Climate Changes Since the Mid-20th Century Driven by Anthropogenic Forcing

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Dalaiden, Quentin, Shurer, Andrew, Kirchmeier-Young, Megan, Goosse, Hugues, Hegerl, Gabriele
• Other Authors: UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc. 2022
• Subjects: Amundsen Sea; Antarctic; Antarc*
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/264717; https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099543

Although the West Antarctic surface climate has experienced large changes over the past decades with widespread surface warming, an overall increase in snow accumulation and a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low, the exact role of human activities in these changes has not yet been fully investigated, which limits confidence in future projections. Here, we perform a detection and attribution analysis using instrumental and proxy-based reconstructions, and two large climate model simulation ensembles to quantify the forced response in these observed changes. We show that surface climate changes since the 1950s were driven by anthropogenic forcing, in particular the greenhouse gas forcing and stratospheric ozone depletion. Therefore, our results indicate that the 21st century changes will depend on both the greenhouse gas emissions and the ozone layer recovery.