Testing for Dynamical Dependence: Application to the Surface Mass Balance Over Antarctica

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Vannitsem, Stéphane, Dalaiden, Quentin, Goosse, Hugues
• Other Authors: UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc. 2019
• Subjects: General Earth and Planetary Sciences; Geophysics; Antarctic; Dronning Maud Land; The Antarctic; Weddell; Weddell Sea; Antarc*; Antarctica; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/224459; https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084329

Dynamical dependence between key observables and the surface mass balance (SMB) over Antarctica is analyzed in two historical runs performed with the MPIâ€ESMâ€P and the CESM1â€CAM5 climate models. The approach used is a novel method allowing for evaluating the rate of information transfer between observables that goes beyond the classical correlation analysis and allows for directional characterization of dependence. It reveals that a large proportion of significant correlations do not lead to dependence. In addition, three coherent results concerning the dependence of SMB emerge from the analysis of both models: (i) The SMB over the Antarctic Plateau is mostly influenced by the surface temperature and sea ice concentration and not by largeâ€scale circulation changes; (ii) the SMB of the Weddell Sea and the Dronning Maud Land coasts are not influenced significantly by the surface temperature; and (iii) the Weddell Sea coast is not significantly influenced by the sea ice concentration.