Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate
Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine mod...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/216620 https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 |
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ftunistlouisbrus:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:216620 2024-05-12T07:56:14+00:00 Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate Bracegirdle, Thomas Colleoni, Florence Abram, Nerilie Bertler, Nancy Dixon, Daniel Goosse, Hugues UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2019 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/216620 https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 eng eng MDPI AG boreal:216620 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/216620 doi:10.3390/geosciences9060255 urn:EISSN:2076-3263 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Geosciences, Vol. 9, no.6, p. 255 (2019) Antarctic Southern Ocean climate paleoclimate CMIP PMIP projections info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2019 ftunistlouisbrus https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 2024-04-18T17:27:09Z Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleoproxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic ice core Southern Ocean DIAL@USL-B (Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles) Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Geosciences 9 6 255 |
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Open Polar |
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DIAL@USL-B (Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles) |
op_collection_id |
ftunistlouisbrus |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean climate paleoclimate CMIP PMIP projections |
spellingShingle |
Antarctic Southern Ocean climate paleoclimate CMIP PMIP projections Bracegirdle, Thomas Colleoni, Florence Abram, Nerilie Bertler, Nancy Dixon, Daniel Goosse, Hugues Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate |
topic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean climate paleoclimate CMIP PMIP projections |
description |
Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleoproxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this. |
author2 |
UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bracegirdle, Thomas Colleoni, Florence Abram, Nerilie Bertler, Nancy Dixon, Daniel Goosse, Hugues |
author_facet |
Bracegirdle, Thomas Colleoni, Florence Abram, Nerilie Bertler, Nancy Dixon, Daniel Goosse, Hugues |
author_sort |
Bracegirdle, Thomas |
title |
Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate |
title_short |
Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate |
title_full |
Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate |
title_fullStr |
Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate |
title_sort |
back to the future: using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of antarctic climate |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/216620 https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic ice core Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic ice core Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Geosciences, Vol. 9, no.6, p. 255 (2019) |
op_relation |
boreal:216620 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/216620 doi:10.3390/geosciences9060255 urn:EISSN:2076-3263 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 |
container_title |
Geosciences |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
255 |
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1798836208530358272 |