Challenges for ice age dynamics: a dynamical systems perspective, Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics
This chapter is dedicated to the slow dynamics of the climate system, at time scales of one thousand to one million years. We focus specifically on the phenomenon of ice ages that has characterised the slow evolution of climate over the Quaternary. Ice ages are a form of variability featuring intera...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Book Part |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/181262 |
id |
ftunistlouisbrus:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:181262 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunistlouisbrus:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:181262 2024-05-12T08:05:23+00:00 Challenges for ice age dynamics: a dynamical systems perspective, Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics Crucifix, Michel Mitsui, Takahito Lenoir, Guillaume UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2016 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/181262 eng eng boreal:181262 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/181262 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CISM/CECI info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart 2016 ftunistlouisbrus 2024-04-18T17:38:16Z This chapter is dedicated to the slow dynamics of the climate system, at time scales of one thousand to one million years. We focus specifically on the phenomenon of ice ages that has characterised the slow evolution of climate over the Quaternary. Ice ages are a form of variability featuring interactions between different large-scale components and processes in the climate system, including ice sheet, deep-ocean and carbon cycle dynamics. This variability is also at least partly controlled by changes in the seasonal and latitudinal incoming solar radiation associated with the combined effects of changes in Earth’s orbit shape, precession of equinoxes, and changes in obliquity. A number of possible mechanisms are reviewed in this chapter. We stress that the nature of the interactions between these slow dynamics and faster modes of variability, such as millennium and centennial modes of variability, are still poorly understood. For example, whether the time sequence of ice ages is robustly determined or not by the astronomical forcing is a matter of debate. These questions need to be addressed with a range of models. We propose to use stochastic parameterisations in the lower resolution models (focusing on climate time scales) to account for weather and macro-weather dynamics simulated with higher resolution models. We discuss challenges—including statistical challenges—and possible methods associated with this programme. Book Part Ice Sheet DIAL@USL-B (Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DIAL@USL-B (Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles) |
op_collection_id |
ftunistlouisbrus |
language |
English |
topic |
CISM/CECI |
spellingShingle |
CISM/CECI Crucifix, Michel Mitsui, Takahito Lenoir, Guillaume Challenges for ice age dynamics: a dynamical systems perspective, Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics |
topic_facet |
CISM/CECI |
description |
This chapter is dedicated to the slow dynamics of the climate system, at time scales of one thousand to one million years. We focus specifically on the phenomenon of ice ages that has characterised the slow evolution of climate over the Quaternary. Ice ages are a form of variability featuring interactions between different large-scale components and processes in the climate system, including ice sheet, deep-ocean and carbon cycle dynamics. This variability is also at least partly controlled by changes in the seasonal and latitudinal incoming solar radiation associated with the combined effects of changes in Earth’s orbit shape, precession of equinoxes, and changes in obliquity. A number of possible mechanisms are reviewed in this chapter. We stress that the nature of the interactions between these slow dynamics and faster modes of variability, such as millennium and centennial modes of variability, are still poorly understood. For example, whether the time sequence of ice ages is robustly determined or not by the astronomical forcing is a matter of debate. These questions need to be addressed with a range of models. We propose to use stochastic parameterisations in the lower resolution models (focusing on climate time scales) to account for weather and macro-weather dynamics simulated with higher resolution models. We discuss challenges—including statistical challenges—and possible methods associated with this programme. |
author2 |
UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Book Part |
author |
Crucifix, Michel Mitsui, Takahito Lenoir, Guillaume |
author_facet |
Crucifix, Michel Mitsui, Takahito Lenoir, Guillaume |
author_sort |
Crucifix, Michel |
title |
Challenges for ice age dynamics: a dynamical systems perspective, Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics |
title_short |
Challenges for ice age dynamics: a dynamical systems perspective, Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics |
title_full |
Challenges for ice age dynamics: a dynamical systems perspective, Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics |
title_fullStr |
Challenges for ice age dynamics: a dynamical systems perspective, Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Challenges for ice age dynamics: a dynamical systems perspective, Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics |
title_sort |
challenges for ice age dynamics: a dynamical systems perspective, nonlinear and stochastic climate dynamics |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/181262 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
boreal:181262 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/181262 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1798847669553070080 |