Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
Estimated external radiative forcings, model results,and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature re...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/168232 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 |
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ftunistlouisbrus:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:168232 2024-05-12T08:00:24+00:00 Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium O. Bothe M. Evans F. Shi F. J. Gonzalez-Rouco G. Hegerl A. Hind J. Jungclaus D. Kaufman F. Lehner N. McKay, A. Moberg C. C. Raible A. Schurer Goosse, Hugues J. Smerdon L. von Gunten S. Wagner E. Warren M. Widmann P. Yiou E. Zorita L. Fernández Donado E. Garcia Bustamante J. Gergis UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2015 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/168232 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 eng eng Copernicus GmbH boreal:168232 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/168232 doi:10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 urn:ISSN:1814-9324 urn:EISSN:1814-9332 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Climate of the Past, Vol. 11, no.12, p. 1673-1699 (2015) CISM/CECI 1443 info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2015 ftunistlouisbrus https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 2024-04-18T17:44:51Z Estimated external radiative forcings, model results,and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature reconstructions at the continentalscale generated by the PAGES 2k project and a collection of state-of-the-art model simulations driven by realistic external forcings are jointly analysed. The first aim is to estimate the consistency between model results and reconstructions for each continental-scale region over the time and frequency domains. Secondly, the links between regions are investigated to determine whether reconstructed global-scale covariability patterns are similar to those identified in model simulations. The third aim is to assess the role of external forcings in the observed temperature variations. From a large set of analyses, we conclude that models are in relatively good agreement with temperature reconstructions for Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly in the Arctic. This is likely due to the relatively large amplitude of the externally forced response across northern and high-latitude regions,which results in a clearly detectable signature in both reconstructions and simulations. Conversely, models disagree strongly with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the simulations are more regionally coherent than the reconstructions, perhaps due to an underestimation of the magnitude of internal variability in models or to an overestimation of the response to the external forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the disagreement might also reflect large uncertainties in the reconstructions, specifically in some Southern Hemisphere regions, which are based on fewer palaeoclimate records than in the Northern Hemisphere. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic DIAL@USL-B (Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles) Arctic Climate of the Past 11 12 1673 1699 |
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Open Polar |
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DIAL@USL-B (Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles) |
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ftunistlouisbrus |
language |
English |
topic |
CISM/CECI 1443 |
spellingShingle |
CISM/CECI 1443 O. Bothe M. Evans F. Shi F. J. Gonzalez-Rouco G. Hegerl A. Hind J. Jungclaus D. Kaufman F. Lehner N. McKay, A. Moberg C. C. Raible A. Schurer Goosse, Hugues J. Smerdon L. von Gunten S. Wagner E. Warren M. Widmann P. Yiou E. Zorita L. Fernández Donado E. Garcia Bustamante J. Gergis Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
topic_facet |
CISM/CECI 1443 |
description |
Estimated external radiative forcings, model results,and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature reconstructions at the continentalscale generated by the PAGES 2k project and a collection of state-of-the-art model simulations driven by realistic external forcings are jointly analysed. The first aim is to estimate the consistency between model results and reconstructions for each continental-scale region over the time and frequency domains. Secondly, the links between regions are investigated to determine whether reconstructed global-scale covariability patterns are similar to those identified in model simulations. The third aim is to assess the role of external forcings in the observed temperature variations. From a large set of analyses, we conclude that models are in relatively good agreement with temperature reconstructions for Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly in the Arctic. This is likely due to the relatively large amplitude of the externally forced response across northern and high-latitude regions,which results in a clearly detectable signature in both reconstructions and simulations. Conversely, models disagree strongly with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the simulations are more regionally coherent than the reconstructions, perhaps due to an underestimation of the magnitude of internal variability in models or to an overestimation of the response to the external forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the disagreement might also reflect large uncertainties in the reconstructions, specifically in some Southern Hemisphere regions, which are based on fewer palaeoclimate records than in the Northern Hemisphere. |
author2 |
UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
O. Bothe M. Evans F. Shi F. J. Gonzalez-Rouco G. Hegerl A. Hind J. Jungclaus D. Kaufman F. Lehner N. McKay, A. Moberg C. C. Raible A. Schurer Goosse, Hugues J. Smerdon L. von Gunten S. Wagner E. Warren M. Widmann P. Yiou E. Zorita L. Fernández Donado E. Garcia Bustamante J. Gergis |
author_facet |
O. Bothe M. Evans F. Shi F. J. Gonzalez-Rouco G. Hegerl A. Hind J. Jungclaus D. Kaufman F. Lehner N. McKay, A. Moberg C. C. Raible A. Schurer Goosse, Hugues J. Smerdon L. von Gunten S. Wagner E. Warren M. Widmann P. Yiou E. Zorita L. Fernández Donado E. Garcia Bustamante J. Gergis |
author_sort |
O. Bothe |
title |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_short |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_full |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_fullStr |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_full_unstemmed |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_sort |
continental-scale temperature variability in pmip3 simulations and pages 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/168232 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol. 11, no.12, p. 1673-1699 (2015) |
op_relation |
boreal:168232 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/168232 doi:10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 urn:ISSN:1814-9324 urn:EISSN:1814-9332 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
1673 |
op_container_end_page |
1699 |
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1798842274625355776 |