Clean air policies are key for successfully mitigating Arctic warming

• Published in: Communications Earth & Environment
• Main Authors: von Salzen, Knut, Whaley, Cynthia, H., Anenberg, Susan, C., van Dingenen, Rita, Klimont, Zbigniew, Flanner, Mark, G., Mahmood, Rashed, Arnold, Stephen, R., Beagley, Stephen, Chien, Rong-You, Christensen, Jesper, H., Eckhardt, Sabine, Ekman, Annica, M. L., Evangeliou, Nikolaos, Faluvegi, Greg, Fu, Joshua, S., Gauss, Michael, Gong, Wanmin, Hjorth, Jens, L., Im, Ulas, Krishnan, Srinath, Kupiainen, Kaarle, Kühn, Thomas, Langner, Joakim, Law, Kathy S., Marelle, Louis, Olivié, Dirk, Onishi, Tatsuo, Oshima, Naga, Paunu, Ville-Veikko, Peng, Yiran, Plummer, David, Pozzoli, Luca, Rao, Shilpa, Raut, Jean-Christophe, Sand, Maria, Schmale, Julia, Sigmond, Michael, Thomas, Manu, A., Tsigaridis, Kostas, Tsyro, Svetlana, Turnock, Steven, T., Wang, Minqi, Winter, Barbara
• Other Authors: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Milken Institute School of Public Health, The George Washington University (GW), European Commission - Joint Research Centre Ispra (JRC), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg (IIASA), Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering (CLaSP), University of Michigan Ann Arbor, University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science Leeds (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment Leeds (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Air Quality Research Division Toronto, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Knoxville, The University of Tennessee Knoxville, Department of Environmental Science Roskilde (ENVS), Aarhus University Aarhus, iCLIMATE Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Department of Meteorology Stockholm (MISU), Stockholm University, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Center for Climate Systems Research New York (CCSR), Columbia University New York, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo (MET), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Ministry of the Environment Finland (YM), Department of Applied Physics Kuopio, University of Kuopio, Atmospheric Research Centre of Eastern Finland, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Department of Earth System Science Beijing (DESS), Tsinghua University Beijing (THU), FINCONS SPA, Norwegian Institute of Public Health Oslo (NIPH), Extreme Environments Research Laboratory (EERL), Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2022
• Subjects: [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]; [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph]; Arctic; Human health
• Online Access: https://insu.hal.science/insu-03825049; https://insu.hal.science/insu-03825049/document; https://insu.hal.science/insu-03825049/file/s43247-022-00555-x.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00555-x

International audience A tighter integration of modeling frameworks for climate and air quality is urgently needed to assess the impacts of clean air policies on future Arctic and global climate. We combined a new model emulator and comprehensive emissions scenarios for air pollutants and greenhouse gases to assess climate and human health co-benefits of emissions reductions. Fossil fuel use is projected to rapidly decline in an increasingly sustainable world, resulting in far-reaching air quality benefits. Despite human health benefits, reductions in sulfur emissions in a more sustainable world could enhance Arctic warming by 0.8 °C in 2050 relative to the 1995-2014, thereby offsetting climate benefits of greenhouse gas reductions. Targeted and technically feasible emissions reduction opportunities exist for achieving simultaneous climate and human health co-benefits. It would be particularly beneficial to unlock a newly identified mitigation potential for carbon particulate matter, yielding Arctic climate benefits equivalent to those from carbon dioxide reductions by 2050.