How the diversity of locally driven operational hydrological prediction systems can support globally configured on-demand high-resolution services

• Main Authors: Ramos, Maria-Helena, Mcknight, Ursula, Artinyan, Eram, Tsarev, P., Danhelka, J., Pedersen, Jonas, Wied, Møller, T., Butts, M. B., Mäkelä, A., Fouchier, Catherine, Javelle, Pierre, Tilmant, François, Garambois, Pierre-André, Massad, Andréa-Giorgio, R., Pórarinsdóttir, Tinna, Roberts, Matthew, J., Broderick, Ciaran, Roberts, Matt, Canavan, Jennifer, Kopáčiková, Eva, Shenga, Z., Hlaváčiková, H., Hrušková, K., Lešková, D., Hundecha, Y., Capell, René, Arheimer, Berit
• Other Authors: Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience (RECOVER), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2023
• Subjects: [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology; Iceland
• Online Access: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04573002; https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5399

International audience In the past years, the research and operation communities on climate, weather and hydrology have put efforts into developing on-demand services for the monitoring, forecasting or emergency response and recovery phases of extreme hydrometeorological events. This is the case for the ‘Copernicus EMS On Demand Mapping’ for natural disasters, including flood inundation, as well as the ‘Destination Earth’s on-demand extremes digital twin’ flagship initiative of the European Commission. These efforts often require new, configurable on-demand prediction capabilities to run Earth system models at very high resolution on global scales. From the hydrological sciences and services perspective, it raises questions about how the diversity of operational hydrological prediction systems that support local modelling and decision-making can integrate this new paradigm, without losing efficiency and predictive accuracy in the process.In this study, we investigate existing (or soon-to-be) operational flood impact modelling simulation capabilities in nine countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Slovakia and Sweden. We developed technical model workflows for each country to illustrate the diversity of approaches encountered in national flood forecasting systems. Each workflow is a visual diagram that identifies nodes represented by start/end points, and tasks and processes that affect the outcomes (i.e., the flood forecasts). Workflow developers were guided to reflect on aspects such as offline setups (domain discretization, model calibration), input data (acquisition, type, source), data pre-processing steps, models and associated routines (data assimilation, post-processing), and outputs (web-based interfaces, visualization). Guidance for inter-comparable workflows were discussed, which allowed us to reflect on a generic workflow to depict the way data and models interact in the context of flood forecasting and warning. Altogether, the hydrological/flood forecasting ...