Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period
International audience Accurate understanding of permafrost dynamics is critical for evaluating and mitigating impacts that may arise as permafrost degrades in the future; however, existing projections have large uncertainties. Studies of how permafrost responded historically during Earth’s past war...
Published in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2023
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04229527 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301954120 |
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Archives ouvertes de Paris-Saclay |
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ftuniparissaclay |
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English |
topic |
[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
spellingShingle |
[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] Guo, Donglin Wang, Huijun Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Haywood, Alan M. Pepin, Nick C. Salzmann, Ulrich Sun, Jianqi Yan, Qing Zhang, Zhongshi Li, Xiangyu Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Feng, Ran Lohmann, Gerrit Stepanek, Christian Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Chan, Wing Le Peltier, William Richard Chandan, Deepak von der Heydt, Anna S. Contoux, Camille Chandler, Mark A. Tan, Ning Zhang, Qiong Hunter, Stephen J. Kamae, Youichi Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period |
topic_facet |
[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
description |
International audience Accurate understanding of permafrost dynamics is critical for evaluating and mitigating impacts that may arise as permafrost degrades in the future; however, existing projections have large uncertainties. Studies of how permafrost responded historically during Earth’s past warm periods are helpful in exploring potential future permafrost behavior and to evaluate the uncertainty of future permafrost change projections. Here, we combine a surface frost index model with outputs from the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project to simulate the near-surface (~3 to 4 m depth) permafrost state in the Northern Hemisphere during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, ~3.264 to 3.025 Ma). This period shares similarities with the projected future climate. Constrained by proxy-based surface air temperature records, our simulations demonstrate that near-surface permafrost was highly spatially restricted during the mPWP and was 93 ± 3% smaller than the preindustrial extent. Near-surface permafrost was present only in the eastern Siberian uplands, Canadian high Arctic Archipelago, and northernmost Greenland. The simulations are similar to near-surface permafrost changes projected for the end of this century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and provide a perspective on the potential permafrost behavior that may be expected in a warmer world. Copyright |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM; National Science Foundation, NSF; National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, (1814029, 1832238, 1852977); National Natural Science Foundation of China, NSFC, (41991281, 42088101, 42275027); Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS, (xbzg-zdsys-202102); Helmholtz Association |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Guo, Donglin Wang, Huijun Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Haywood, Alan M. Pepin, Nick C. Salzmann, Ulrich Sun, Jianqi Yan, Qing Zhang, Zhongshi Li, Xiangyu Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Feng, Ran Lohmann, Gerrit Stepanek, Christian Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Chan, Wing Le Peltier, William Richard Chandan, Deepak von der Heydt, Anna S. Contoux, Camille Chandler, Mark A. Tan, Ning Zhang, Qiong Hunter, Stephen J. Kamae, Youichi |
author_facet |
Guo, Donglin Wang, Huijun Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Haywood, Alan M. Pepin, Nick C. Salzmann, Ulrich Sun, Jianqi Yan, Qing Zhang, Zhongshi Li, Xiangyu Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Feng, Ran Lohmann, Gerrit Stepanek, Christian Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Chan, Wing Le Peltier, William Richard Chandan, Deepak von der Heydt, Anna S. Contoux, Camille Chandler, Mark A. Tan, Ning Zhang, Qiong Hunter, Stephen J. Kamae, Youichi |
author_sort |
Guo, Donglin |
title |
Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period |
title_short |
Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period |
title_full |
Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period |
title_fullStr |
Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period |
title_full_unstemmed |
Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period |
title_sort |
highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-pliocene warm period |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04229527 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301954120 |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Archipelago Arctic Greenland permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Archipelago Arctic Greenland permafrost |
op_source |
ISSN: 0027-8424 EISSN: 1091-6490 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America https://hal.science/hal-04229527 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023, 120 (36), ⟨10.1073/pnas.2301954120⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1073/pnas.2301954120 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/37639595 hal-04229527 https://hal.science/hal-04229527 doi:10.1073/pnas.2301954120 PUBMED: 37639595 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301954120 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
120 |
container_issue |
36 |
_version_ |
1802003061552447488 |
spelling |
ftuniparissaclay:oai:HAL:hal-04229527v1 2024-06-16T07:36:33+00:00 Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period Guo, Donglin Wang, Huijun Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Haywood, Alan M. Pepin, Nick C. Salzmann, Ulrich Sun, Jianqi Yan, Qing Zhang, Zhongshi Li, Xiangyu Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Feng, Ran Lohmann, Gerrit Stepanek, Christian Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Chan, Wing Le Peltier, William Richard Chandan, Deepak von der Heydt, Anna S. Contoux, Camille Chandler, Mark A. Tan, Ning Zhang, Qiong Hunter, Stephen J. Kamae, Youichi Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM; National Science Foundation, NSF; National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, (1814029, 1832238, 1852977); National Natural Science Foundation of China, NSFC, (41991281, 42088101, 42275027); Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS, (xbzg-zdsys-202102); Helmholtz Association 2023 https://hal.science/hal-04229527 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301954120 en eng HAL CCSD National Academy of Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1073/pnas.2301954120 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/37639595 hal-04229527 https://hal.science/hal-04229527 doi:10.1073/pnas.2301954120 PUBMED: 37639595 ISSN: 0027-8424 EISSN: 1091-6490 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America https://hal.science/hal-04229527 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023, 120 (36), ⟨10.1073/pnas.2301954120⟩ [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftuniparissaclay https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301954120 2024-05-17T00:00:18Z International audience Accurate understanding of permafrost dynamics is critical for evaluating and mitigating impacts that may arise as permafrost degrades in the future; however, existing projections have large uncertainties. Studies of how permafrost responded historically during Earth’s past warm periods are helpful in exploring potential future permafrost behavior and to evaluate the uncertainty of future permafrost change projections. Here, we combine a surface frost index model with outputs from the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project to simulate the near-surface (~3 to 4 m depth) permafrost state in the Northern Hemisphere during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, ~3.264 to 3.025 Ma). This period shares similarities with the projected future climate. Constrained by proxy-based surface air temperature records, our simulations demonstrate that near-surface permafrost was highly spatially restricted during the mPWP and was 93 ± 3% smaller than the preindustrial extent. Near-surface permafrost was present only in the eastern Siberian uplands, Canadian high Arctic Archipelago, and northernmost Greenland. The simulations are similar to near-surface permafrost changes projected for the end of this century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and provide a perspective on the potential permafrost behavior that may be expected in a warmer world. Copyright Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Archipelago Arctic Greenland permafrost Archives ouvertes de Paris-Saclay Arctic Greenland Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120 36 |