Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
International audience Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5°C, and 2.0°C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern h...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2020
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-02969136 https://hal.science/hal-02969136/document https://hal.science/hal-02969136/file/Ito_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_044006%281%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b |
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ftuniparissaclay:oai:HAL:hal-02969136v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archives ouvertes de Paris-Saclay |
op_collection_id |
ftuniparissaclay |
language |
English |
topic |
biome sector ISIMIP2b northern high latitudes Paris agreement climatic impacts [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
biome sector ISIMIP2b northern high latitudes Paris agreement climatic impacts [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Ito, Akihiko Reyer, Christopher Gädeke, Anne Ciais, Philippe Chang, Jinfeng Chen, Min François, Louis Forrest, Matthew Hickler, Thomas Ostberg, Sebastian Shi, Hao Thiery, Wim Tian, Hanqin Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
topic_facet |
biome sector ISIMIP2b northern high latitudes Paris agreement climatic impacts [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5°C, and 2.0°C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60°N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30-60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ito, Akihiko Reyer, Christopher Gädeke, Anne Ciais, Philippe Chang, Jinfeng Chen, Min François, Louis Forrest, Matthew Hickler, Thomas Ostberg, Sebastian Shi, Hao Thiery, Wim Tian, Hanqin |
author_facet |
Ito, Akihiko Reyer, Christopher Gädeke, Anne Ciais, Philippe Chang, Jinfeng Chen, Min François, Louis Forrest, Matthew Hickler, Thomas Ostberg, Sebastian Shi, Hao Thiery, Wim Tian, Hanqin |
author_sort |
Ito, Akihiko |
title |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_short |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_full |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_fullStr |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_sort |
pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02969136 https://hal.science/hal-02969136/document https://hal.science/hal-02969136/file/Ito_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_044006%281%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming permafrost Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming permafrost Tundra |
op_source |
ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-02969136 Environmental Research Letters, 2020, 15 (4), pp.044006. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b hal-02969136 https://hal.science/hal-02969136 https://hal.science/hal-02969136/document https://hal.science/hal-02969136/file/Ito_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_044006%281%29.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
044006 |
_version_ |
1802004322279489536 |
spelling |
ftuniparissaclay:oai:HAL:hal-02969136v1 2024-06-16T07:37:39+00:00 Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems Ito, Akihiko Reyer, Christopher Gädeke, Anne Ciais, Philippe Chang, Jinfeng Chen, Min François, Louis Forrest, Matthew Hickler, Thomas Ostberg, Sebastian Shi, Hao Thiery, Wim Tian, Hanqin Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) 2020-04-01 https://hal.science/hal-02969136 https://hal.science/hal-02969136/document https://hal.science/hal-02969136/file/Ito_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_044006%281%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b en eng HAL CCSD IOP Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b hal-02969136 https://hal.science/hal-02969136 https://hal.science/hal-02969136/document https://hal.science/hal-02969136/file/Ito_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_044006%281%29.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-02969136 Environmental Research Letters, 2020, 15 (4), pp.044006. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b⟩ biome sector ISIMIP2b northern high latitudes Paris agreement climatic impacts [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftuniparissaclay https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b 2024-05-17T00:07:06Z International audience Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5°C, and 2.0°C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60°N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30-60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming permafrost Tundra Archives ouvertes de Paris-Saclay Arctic Environmental Research Letters 15 4 044006 |