Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North America

• Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• Main Authors: de Luca, P., Messori, G., Pons, F. M. E., Faranda, Davide
• Other Authors: Loughborough University, Uppsala University, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Amsterdam (VU), Stockholm University, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), London Mathematical Laboratory, Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA))
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: Dynamical Extremes; Compound Extremes; Multi-Hazards; Dynamical Systems Theory; Climate Dynamics; Climate Extremes; [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-02895084; https://hal.science/hal-02895084/document; https://hal.science/hal-02895084/file/Dyn_Extr_QJRMS.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3757

International audience We propose a novel approach to the study of compound extremes , grounded in dynamical systems theory. Specifically, we present the co-recurrence ratio (α), which elucidates the dependence structure between variables by quantifying their joint recurrences. This approach is applied to daily climate extremes, derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis over the 1979-2018 period. The analysis focuses on concurrent (i.e. same-day) wet (total precipitation) and windy (10m wind gusts) extremes in Europe and concurrent cold (2m temperature) extremes in Eastern North America and wet extremes in Europe. Results for wet and windy extremes in Europe, which we use as a test-bed for our methodology, show that α peaks during boreal winter. High α values correspond to wet and windy extremes in northwestern Europe, and to large-scale conditions resembling the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This confirms earlier findings which link the positive NAO to a heightened frequency of extra-tropical cyclones impacting northwestern Europe. For the Eastern North America-Europe case, α extremes once again reflect concurrent climate extremes-in this case cold extremes over North America and wet extremes over Europe. Our analysis provides detailed spatial information on regional hotspots for these compound ex-1