The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability
International audience The atmosphere's chaotic nature limits its short-term predictability. Furthermore, there is little knowledge on how the difficulty of forecasting weather may be affected by anthro-pogenic climate change. Here, we address this question by employing metrics issued from dyna...
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-02334273 https://hal.science/hal-02334273/document https://hal.science/hal-02334273/file/2019_Faranda_et_al_NatureComm.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8 |
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ftuniparissaclay:oai:HAL:hal-02334273v1 2024-06-16T07:41:50+00:00 The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability Faranda, Davide Alvarez-Castro, M Carmen Messori, Gabriele Rodrigues, David Yiou, Pascal Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University 2019 https://hal.science/hal-02334273 https://hal.science/hal-02334273/document https://hal.science/hal-02334273/file/2019_Faranda_et_al_NatureComm.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8 en eng HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8 hal-02334273 https://hal.science/hal-02334273 https://hal.science/hal-02334273/document https://hal.science/hal-02334273/file/2019_Faranda_et_al_NatureComm.pdf doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2041-1723 EISSN: 2041-1723 Nature Communications https://hal.science/hal-02334273 Nature Communications, 2019, 10, pp.1316. ⟨10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2019 ftuniparissaclay https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8 2024-05-17T00:07:34Z International audience The atmosphere's chaotic nature limits its short-term predictability. Furthermore, there is little knowledge on how the difficulty of forecasting weather may be affected by anthro-pogenic climate change. Here, we address this question by employing metrics issued from dynamical systems theory to describe the atmospheric circulation and infer the dynamical properties of the climate system. Specifically, we evaluate the changes in the sub-seasonal predictability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic for the historical period and under anthropogenic forcing, using centennial reanalyses and CMIP5 simulations. For the future period, most datasets point to an increase in the atmo-sphere's predictability. AMIP simulations with 4K warmer oceans and 4 × atmospheric CO 2 concentrations highlight the prominent role of a warmer ocean in driving this increase. We term this the hammam effect. Such effect is linked to enhanced zonal atmospheric patterns, which are more predictable than meridional configurations. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Archives ouvertes de Paris-Saclay Nature Communications 10 1 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Archives ouvertes de Paris-Saclay |
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ftuniparissaclay |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Faranda, Davide Alvarez-Castro, M Carmen Messori, Gabriele Rodrigues, David Yiou, Pascal The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience The atmosphere's chaotic nature limits its short-term predictability. Furthermore, there is little knowledge on how the difficulty of forecasting weather may be affected by anthro-pogenic climate change. Here, we address this question by employing metrics issued from dynamical systems theory to describe the atmospheric circulation and infer the dynamical properties of the climate system. Specifically, we evaluate the changes in the sub-seasonal predictability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic for the historical period and under anthropogenic forcing, using centennial reanalyses and CMIP5 simulations. For the future period, most datasets point to an increase in the atmo-sphere's predictability. AMIP simulations with 4K warmer oceans and 4 × atmospheric CO 2 concentrations highlight the prominent role of a warmer ocean in driving this increase. We term this the hammam effect. Such effect is linked to enhanced zonal atmospheric patterns, which are more predictable than meridional configurations. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Faranda, Davide Alvarez-Castro, M Carmen Messori, Gabriele Rodrigues, David Yiou, Pascal |
author_facet |
Faranda, Davide Alvarez-Castro, M Carmen Messori, Gabriele Rodrigues, David Yiou, Pascal |
author_sort |
Faranda, Davide |
title |
The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability |
title_short |
The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability |
title_full |
The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability |
title_fullStr |
The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability |
title_full_unstemmed |
The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability |
title_sort |
hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02334273 https://hal.science/hal-02334273/document https://hal.science/hal-02334273/file/2019_Faranda_et_al_NatureComm.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 2041-1723 EISSN: 2041-1723 Nature Communications https://hal.science/hal-02334273 Nature Communications, 2019, 10, pp.1316. ⟨10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8 hal-02334273 https://hal.science/hal-02334273 https://hal.science/hal-02334273/document https://hal.science/hal-02334273/file/2019_Faranda_et_al_NatureComm.pdf doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1802009140787150848 |