Estimation of the SST Response to Anthropogenic and External Forcing and Its Impact on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
International audience Two large ensembles (LEs) of historical climate simulations are used to compare how various statistical methods estimate the sea surface temperature (SST) changes due to anthropogenic and other external forcing, and how their removal affects the internally generated Atlantic m...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Main Authors: | , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2017
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-01685384 https://hal.science/hal-01685384/document https://hal.science/hal-01685384/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Estimation%20of%20the%20SST%20Response%20to%20Anthropogenic%20and%20External%20Forcing%20and%20Its%20Impact%20on%20the%20Atlantic%20Multidecadal%20Oscillation%20and%20the%20Pacific%20Decadal%20Oscillation.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1 |
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ftuniparissaclay:oai:HAL:hal-01685384v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archives ouvertes de Paris-Saclay |
op_collection_id |
ftuniparissaclay |
language |
English |
topic |
Pattern detection Decadal variability Multidecadal variability Pacific decadal oscillation Trends [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
spellingShingle |
Pattern detection Decadal variability Multidecadal variability Pacific decadal oscillation Trends [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume Kwon, Young-Oh Estimation of the SST Response to Anthropogenic and External Forcing and Its Impact on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation |
topic_facet |
Pattern detection Decadal variability Multidecadal variability Pacific decadal oscillation Trends [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
description |
International audience Two large ensembles (LEs) of historical climate simulations are used to compare how various statistical methods estimate the sea surface temperature (SST) changes due to anthropogenic and other external forcing, and how their removal affects the internally generated Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the SST footprint of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Removing the forced SST signal by subtracting the global mean SST (GM) or a linear regression on it (REGR) leads to large errors in the Pacific. Multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) and quadratic detrending only efficiently remove the forced SST signal in one LE, and cannot separate the short-term response to volcanic eruptions from natural SST variations. Removing a linear trend works poorly. Two methods based on linear inverse modeling (LIM), one where the leading LIM mode represents the forced signal and another using an optimal perturbation filter (LIMopt), perform consistently well. However, the first two LIM modes are sometimes needed to represent the forced signal, so the more robust LIMopt is recommended. In both LEs, the natural AMO variability seems largely driven by the AMOC in the subpolar North Atlantic, but not in the subtropics and tropics, and the scatter in the AMOC–AMO correlation is large between individual ensemble members. In three observational SST reconstructions for 1900–2015, linear and quadratic detrending, MEEMD, and GM yield somewhat different AMO behavior, and REGR yields smaller PDO amplitudes. Based on LIMopt, only about 30% of the AMO variability is internally generated, as opposed to more than 90% for the PDO. The natural SST variability contribution to global warming hiatus is discussed. |
author2 |
Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) NOAA Climate Program Office Climate Variability and Predictability program (NA13OAR4310139) NSF EaSM2 (OCE-84298900) the European Community Horizon 2020 Framework under Grant Agreement 727852 (Blue-Action) - pas dans AureHal ANR-13-SENV-0002,MORDICUS,Oscillations et rétroactions climatiques aux échelles décennales : mécanismes, sensibilité et incertitudes(2013) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume Kwon, Young-Oh |
author_facet |
Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume Kwon, Young-Oh |
author_sort |
Frankignoul, Claude |
title |
Estimation of the SST Response to Anthropogenic and External Forcing and Its Impact on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation |
title_short |
Estimation of the SST Response to Anthropogenic and External Forcing and Its Impact on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation |
title_full |
Estimation of the SST Response to Anthropogenic and External Forcing and Its Impact on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation |
title_fullStr |
Estimation of the SST Response to Anthropogenic and External Forcing and Its Impact on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimation of the SST Response to Anthropogenic and External Forcing and Its Impact on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation |
title_sort |
estimation of the sst response to anthropogenic and external forcing and its impact on the atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the pacific decadal oscillation |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01685384 https://hal.science/hal-01685384/document https://hal.science/hal-01685384/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Estimation%20of%20the%20SST%20Response%20to%20Anthropogenic%20and%20External%20Forcing%20and%20Its%20Impact%20on%20the%20Atlantic%20Multidecadal%20Oscillation%20and%20the%20Pacific%20Decadal%20Oscillation.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-01685384 Journal of Climate, 2017, 30 (24), pp.9871 - 9895. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1⟩ http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1 hal-01685384 https://hal.science/hal-01685384 https://hal.science/hal-01685384/document https://hal.science/hal-01685384/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Estimation%20of%20the%20SST%20Response%20to%20Anthropogenic%20and%20External%20Forcing%20and%20Its%20Impact%20on%20the%20Atlantic%20Multidecadal%20Oscillation%20and%20the%20Pacific%20Decadal%20Oscillation.pdf BIBCODE: 2017JCli.30.9871F doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1 WOS: 000423492500005 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
24 |
container_start_page |
9871 |
op_container_end_page |
9895 |
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1799485490634686464 |
spelling |
ftuniparissaclay:oai:HAL:hal-01685384v1 2024-05-19T07:45:26+00:00 Estimation of the SST Response to Anthropogenic and External Forcing and Its Impact on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume Kwon, Young-Oh Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) NOAA Climate Program Office Climate Variability and Predictability program (NA13OAR4310139) NSF EaSM2 (OCE-84298900) the European Community Horizon 2020 Framework under Grant Agreement 727852 (Blue-Action) - pas dans AureHal ANR-13-SENV-0002,MORDICUS,Oscillations et rétroactions climatiques aux échelles décennales : mécanismes, sensibilité et incertitudes(2013) 2017-12 https://hal.science/hal-01685384 https://hal.science/hal-01685384/document https://hal.science/hal-01685384/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Estimation%20of%20the%20SST%20Response%20to%20Anthropogenic%20and%20External%20Forcing%20and%20Its%20Impact%20on%20the%20Atlantic%20Multidecadal%20Oscillation%20and%20the%20Pacific%20Decadal%20Oscillation.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1 hal-01685384 https://hal.science/hal-01685384 https://hal.science/hal-01685384/document https://hal.science/hal-01685384/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Estimation%20of%20the%20SST%20Response%20to%20Anthropogenic%20and%20External%20Forcing%20and%20Its%20Impact%20on%20the%20Atlantic%20Multidecadal%20Oscillation%20and%20the%20Pacific%20Decadal%20Oscillation.pdf BIBCODE: 2017JCli.30.9871F doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1 WOS: 000423492500005 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-01685384 Journal of Climate, 2017, 30 (24), pp.9871 - 9895. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1⟩ http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1 Pattern detection Decadal variability Multidecadal variability Pacific decadal oscillation Trends [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2017 ftuniparissaclay https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0009.1 2024-04-22T17:33:22Z International audience Two large ensembles (LEs) of historical climate simulations are used to compare how various statistical methods estimate the sea surface temperature (SST) changes due to anthropogenic and other external forcing, and how their removal affects the internally generated Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the SST footprint of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Removing the forced SST signal by subtracting the global mean SST (GM) or a linear regression on it (REGR) leads to large errors in the Pacific. Multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) and quadratic detrending only efficiently remove the forced SST signal in one LE, and cannot separate the short-term response to volcanic eruptions from natural SST variations. Removing a linear trend works poorly. Two methods based on linear inverse modeling (LIM), one where the leading LIM mode represents the forced signal and another using an optimal perturbation filter (LIMopt), perform consistently well. However, the first two LIM modes are sometimes needed to represent the forced signal, so the more robust LIMopt is recommended. In both LEs, the natural AMO variability seems largely driven by the AMOC in the subpolar North Atlantic, but not in the subtropics and tropics, and the scatter in the AMOC–AMO correlation is large between individual ensemble members. In three observational SST reconstructions for 1900–2015, linear and quadratic detrending, MEEMD, and GM yield somewhat different AMO behavior, and REGR yields smaller PDO amplitudes. Based on LIMopt, only about 30% of the AMO variability is internally generated, as opposed to more than 90% for the PDO. The natural SST variability contribution to global warming hiatus is discussed. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Archives ouvertes de Paris-Saclay Journal of Climate 30 24 9871 9895 |