Re-evaluating the 1940s CO 2 plateau
International audience The high-resolution CO 2 record from Law Dome ice core reveals that atmospheric CO 2 concentration stalled during the 1940s (so-called CO 2 plateau). Since the fossil-fuel emissions did not decrease during the period, this stalling implies the persistence of a strong sink, per...
Published in: | Biogeosciences |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2016
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-01587579 https://hal.science/hal-01587579/document https://hal.science/hal-01587579/file/bg-13-4877-2016.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016 |
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[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Bastos, Ana Ciais, Philippe Barichivich, Jonathan Bopp, Laurent Brovkin, Victor Gasser, Thomas Peng, Shushi Pongratz, Julia Viovy, Nicolas Trudinger, Cathy M. Re-evaluating the 1940s CO 2 plateau |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience The high-resolution CO 2 record from Law Dome ice core reveals that atmospheric CO 2 concentration stalled during the 1940s (so-called CO 2 plateau). Since the fossil-fuel emissions did not decrease during the period, this stalling implies the persistence of a strong sink, perhaps sustained for as long as a decade or more. Double-deconvolution analyses have attributed this sink to the ocean, conceivably as a response to the very strong El Niño event in 1940-1942. However, this explanation is questionable, as recent ocean CO 2 data indicate that the range of variability in the ocean sink has been rather modest in recent decades, and El Niño events have generally led to higher growth rates of atmospheric CO 2 due to the offsetting terrestrial response. Here, we use the most up-to-date information on the different terms of the carbon budget: fossil-fuel emissions, four estimates of land-use change (LUC) emissions, ocean uptake from two different reconstructions, and the terrestrial sink modelled by the TRENDY project to identify the most likely causes of the 1940s plateau. We find that they greatly overestimate atmospheric CO 2 growth rate during the plateau period , as well as in the 1960s, in spite of giving a plausible explanation for most of the 20th century carbon budget, especially from 1970 onwards. The mismatch between reconstructions and observations during the CO 2 plateau epoch of 1940-1950 ranges between 0.9 and 2.0 Pg C yr −1 , depending on the LUC dataset considered. This mismatch may be explained by (i) decadal variability in the ocean carbon sink not accounted for in the reconstructions we used, (ii) a further terrestrial sink currently missing in the estimates by land-surface models, or (iii) LUC processes not included in the current datasets. Ocean carbon models from CMIP5 indicate that natural variability in the ocean carbon sink could explain an additional 0.5 Pg C yr −1 uptake, but it is unlikely to be higher. The impact of the 1940-1942 El Niño on the observed ... |
author2 |
Instituto de Geociências Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul Porto Alegre (UFRGS) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Department of Global Ecology Carnegie (DGE) Carnegie Institution for Science Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC) Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research/ CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bastos, Ana Ciais, Philippe Barichivich, Jonathan Bopp, Laurent Brovkin, Victor Gasser, Thomas Peng, Shushi Pongratz, Julia Viovy, Nicolas Trudinger, Cathy M. |
author_facet |
Bastos, Ana Ciais, Philippe Barichivich, Jonathan Bopp, Laurent Brovkin, Victor Gasser, Thomas Peng, Shushi Pongratz, Julia Viovy, Nicolas Trudinger, Cathy M. |
author_sort |
Bastos, Ana |
title |
Re-evaluating the 1940s CO 2 plateau |
title_short |
Re-evaluating the 1940s CO 2 plateau |
title_full |
Re-evaluating the 1940s CO 2 plateau |
title_fullStr |
Re-evaluating the 1940s CO 2 plateau |
title_full_unstemmed |
Re-evaluating the 1940s CO 2 plateau |
title_sort |
re-evaluating the 1940s co 2 plateau |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01587579 https://hal.science/hal-01587579/document https://hal.science/hal-01587579/file/bg-13-4877-2016.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016 |
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ENVELOPE(112.833,112.833,-66.733,-66.733) |
geographic |
Law Dome |
geographic_facet |
Law Dome |
genre |
ice core |
genre_facet |
ice core |
op_source |
ISSN: 1726-4170 EISSN: 1726-4189 Biogeosciences https://hal.science/hal-01587579 Biogeosciences, 2016, 13 (17), pp.4877-4897. ⟨10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016⟩ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016 hal-01587579 https://hal.science/hal-01587579 https://hal.science/hal-01587579/document https://hal.science/hal-01587579/file/bg-13-4877-2016.pdf doi:10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016 |
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Biogeosciences |
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13 |
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17 |
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4877 |
op_container_end_page |
4897 |
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ftuniparissaclay:oai:HAL:hal-01587579v1 2024-06-16T07:40:43+00:00 Re-evaluating the 1940s CO 2 plateau Bastos, Ana Ciais, Philippe Barichivich, Jonathan Bopp, Laurent Brovkin, Victor Gasser, Thomas Peng, Shushi Pongratz, Julia Viovy, Nicolas Trudinger, Cathy M. Instituto de Geociências Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul Porto Alegre (UFRGS) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Department of Global Ecology Carnegie (DGE) Carnegie Institution for Science Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC) Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research/ CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 2016 https://hal.science/hal-01587579 https://hal.science/hal-01587579/document https://hal.science/hal-01587579/file/bg-13-4877-2016.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016 hal-01587579 https://hal.science/hal-01587579 https://hal.science/hal-01587579/document https://hal.science/hal-01587579/file/bg-13-4877-2016.pdf doi:10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1726-4170 EISSN: 1726-4189 Biogeosciences https://hal.science/hal-01587579 Biogeosciences, 2016, 13 (17), pp.4877-4897. ⟨10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2016 ftuniparissaclay https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016 2024-05-17T00:07:06Z International audience The high-resolution CO 2 record from Law Dome ice core reveals that atmospheric CO 2 concentration stalled during the 1940s (so-called CO 2 plateau). Since the fossil-fuel emissions did not decrease during the period, this stalling implies the persistence of a strong sink, perhaps sustained for as long as a decade or more. Double-deconvolution analyses have attributed this sink to the ocean, conceivably as a response to the very strong El Niño event in 1940-1942. However, this explanation is questionable, as recent ocean CO 2 data indicate that the range of variability in the ocean sink has been rather modest in recent decades, and El Niño events have generally led to higher growth rates of atmospheric CO 2 due to the offsetting terrestrial response. Here, we use the most up-to-date information on the different terms of the carbon budget: fossil-fuel emissions, four estimates of land-use change (LUC) emissions, ocean uptake from two different reconstructions, and the terrestrial sink modelled by the TRENDY project to identify the most likely causes of the 1940s plateau. We find that they greatly overestimate atmospheric CO 2 growth rate during the plateau period , as well as in the 1960s, in spite of giving a plausible explanation for most of the 20th century carbon budget, especially from 1970 onwards. The mismatch between reconstructions and observations during the CO 2 plateau epoch of 1940-1950 ranges between 0.9 and 2.0 Pg C yr −1 , depending on the LUC dataset considered. This mismatch may be explained by (i) decadal variability in the ocean carbon sink not accounted for in the reconstructions we used, (ii) a further terrestrial sink currently missing in the estimates by land-surface models, or (iii) LUC processes not included in the current datasets. Ocean carbon models from CMIP5 indicate that natural variability in the ocean carbon sink could explain an additional 0.5 Pg C yr −1 uptake, but it is unlikely to be higher. The impact of the 1940-1942 El Niño on the observed ... Article in Journal/Newspaper ice core Archives ouvertes de Paris-Saclay Law Dome ENVELOPE(112.833,112.833,-66.733,-66.733) Biogeosciences 13 17 4877 4897 |