Predicting permafrost stability in northern peatlands with climate change and disturbance
Permafrost thaw may cause significant carbon loss from northern organic soils, a large terrestrial carbon pool. To predict permafrost stability in organic soils, we adapted an existing soil temperature model (GIPL 2.0) to peatlands by including a three-layer peat soil column and dynamic soil moistur...
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ftuninhampshire:oai:scholars.unh.edu:earthsci_facpub-1417 2023-05-15T15:14:51+02:00 Predicting permafrost stability in northern peatlands with climate change and disturbance Treat, C C Wisser, Dominik Marchenko, S Humphreys, E R Frolking, Steve Huemmrich, K f 2010-12-01T08:00:00Z https://scholars.unh.edu/earthsci_facpub/418 http://abstractsearch.agu.org/meetings/2010/FM/C31A-0505.html unknown University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository https://scholars.unh.edu/earthsci_facpub/418 http://abstractsearch.agu.org/meetings/2010/FM/C31A-0505.html Earth Sciences Scholarship text 2010 ftuninhampshire 2023-01-30T21:35:11Z Permafrost thaw may cause significant carbon loss from northern organic soils, a large terrestrial carbon pool. To predict permafrost stability in organic soils, we adapted an existing soil temperature model (GIPL 2.0) to peatlands by including a three-layer peat soil column and dynamic soil moisture. GIPL 2.0 numerically solves the 1-dimensional heat transfer equation. We evaluated the model at Daring Lake Fen, a sedge-dominated Arctic Fen in the Northwest Territories, Canada and College Peat, a permafrost muskeg in Fairbanks, AK. We examined the sensitivity of the model to seasonality and total soil moisture, thermal properties and organic layer thickness. We also evaluated active layer depth for future climate scenarios. Finally, we compared the relative magnitude of climate change impacts on soil temperatures to the effects of current and predicted wildfire. We simulated wildfire by removing the surface soil (5 - 15 cm) and increasing air temperatures post-fire due to changes in surface energy balance. We found that air temperature, rather than changes in soil moisture, was the most important predictor of changes in active layer depth and permafrost stability. Also, the seasonality of soil moisture was relatively unimportant, while changes in temperature seasonality were important to active layer depths. In the climate change scenarios (using IPCC scenario A1b), active layer depths and the length of the growing season (determined as soil thawed at 10 cm) increased significantly by 2100. Warmer soil temperatures at depth due to higher air temperatures resulted in an increase of liquid water in the soil and the possibility of increased biological activity. Soil temperatures and active layer depths increased following disturbance, but the increases were relatively short-lived (decades) and were strongly correlated with post-fire temperature changes. The simulated removal of a shallow layer of surface organic soil following disturbance has limited long-term effects on soil temperatures. Therefore, we anticipate ... Text Arctic Climate change Northwest Territories permafrost University of New Hampshire: Scholars Repository Arctic Northwest Territories Fairbanks Canada Daring Lake ENVELOPE(-111.635,-111.635,64.834,64.834) |
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University of New Hampshire: Scholars Repository |
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ftuninhampshire |
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description |
Permafrost thaw may cause significant carbon loss from northern organic soils, a large terrestrial carbon pool. To predict permafrost stability in organic soils, we adapted an existing soil temperature model (GIPL 2.0) to peatlands by including a three-layer peat soil column and dynamic soil moisture. GIPL 2.0 numerically solves the 1-dimensional heat transfer equation. We evaluated the model at Daring Lake Fen, a sedge-dominated Arctic Fen in the Northwest Territories, Canada and College Peat, a permafrost muskeg in Fairbanks, AK. We examined the sensitivity of the model to seasonality and total soil moisture, thermal properties and organic layer thickness. We also evaluated active layer depth for future climate scenarios. Finally, we compared the relative magnitude of climate change impacts on soil temperatures to the effects of current and predicted wildfire. We simulated wildfire by removing the surface soil (5 - 15 cm) and increasing air temperatures post-fire due to changes in surface energy balance. We found that air temperature, rather than changes in soil moisture, was the most important predictor of changes in active layer depth and permafrost stability. Also, the seasonality of soil moisture was relatively unimportant, while changes in temperature seasonality were important to active layer depths. In the climate change scenarios (using IPCC scenario A1b), active layer depths and the length of the growing season (determined as soil thawed at 10 cm) increased significantly by 2100. Warmer soil temperatures at depth due to higher air temperatures resulted in an increase of liquid water in the soil and the possibility of increased biological activity. Soil temperatures and active layer depths increased following disturbance, but the increases were relatively short-lived (decades) and were strongly correlated with post-fire temperature changes. The simulated removal of a shallow layer of surface organic soil following disturbance has limited long-term effects on soil temperatures. Therefore, we anticipate ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Treat, C C Wisser, Dominik Marchenko, S Humphreys, E R Frolking, Steve Huemmrich, K f |
spellingShingle |
Treat, C C Wisser, Dominik Marchenko, S Humphreys, E R Frolking, Steve Huemmrich, K f Predicting permafrost stability in northern peatlands with climate change and disturbance |
author_facet |
Treat, C C Wisser, Dominik Marchenko, S Humphreys, E R Frolking, Steve Huemmrich, K f |
author_sort |
Treat, C C |
title |
Predicting permafrost stability in northern peatlands with climate change and disturbance |
title_short |
Predicting permafrost stability in northern peatlands with climate change and disturbance |
title_full |
Predicting permafrost stability in northern peatlands with climate change and disturbance |
title_fullStr |
Predicting permafrost stability in northern peatlands with climate change and disturbance |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting permafrost stability in northern peatlands with climate change and disturbance |
title_sort |
predicting permafrost stability in northern peatlands with climate change and disturbance |
publisher |
University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://scholars.unh.edu/earthsci_facpub/418 http://abstractsearch.agu.org/meetings/2010/FM/C31A-0505.html |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-111.635,-111.635,64.834,64.834) |
geographic |
Arctic Northwest Territories Fairbanks Canada Daring Lake |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Northwest Territories Fairbanks Canada Daring Lake |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Northwest Territories permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Northwest Territories permafrost |
op_source |
Earth Sciences Scholarship |
op_relation |
https://scholars.unh.edu/earthsci_facpub/418 http://abstractsearch.agu.org/meetings/2010/FM/C31A-0505.html |
_version_ |
1766345259126620160 |