Using proxy reconstructions for streamflow forecasting
The development of a long range streamflow forecast model using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations becomes useful when planning for future water supplies. A data-driven model, i.e. M5P, uses proxy reconstructions for streamflow forecasting with 1–5 year lead-times. The proxy reconstructions include an...
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ftuninevadalveg:oai:digitalscholarship.unlv.edu:fac_articles-1144 2023-05-15T17:33:02+02:00 Using proxy reconstructions for streamflow forecasting Carrier, Christopher Allen Kalra, Ajay Ahmad, Sajjad R. E. Beighley II; M. W. Kilgore 2011-05-22T07:00:00Z https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/fac_articles/145 English eng Digital Scholarship@UNLV https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/fac_articles/145 Civil & Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Publications Forecasting Ocean-atmosphere interaction—Research Ocean-atmosphere interaction--Simulation methods Streamflow Streamflow—Forecasting Water supply Civil and Environmental Engineering Engineering Environmental Engineering Environmental Sciences conference 2011 ftuninevadalveg 2023-01-16T16:28:46Z The development of a long range streamflow forecast model using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations becomes useful when planning for future water supplies. A data-driven model, i.e. M5P, uses proxy reconstructions for streamflow forecasting with 1–5 year lead-times. The proxy reconstructions include annual oceanic-atmospheric indices including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) ranging from 1661–2007. The analysis focuses on naturalized streamflow for Lee's Ferry located in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). A10-fold cross-validation technique is used to test the efficiency of the model. The best results are obtained for 2-year lead-time. The proposed methodology outperforms the traditional linear regression modeling approach. The use of proxy reconstructions provides a robust model that is trained on a larger dataset than models trained only on the instrumental record. The proposed modeling technique is expected to be useful for water managers for long range water resources management within the Colorado River Basin. Conference Object North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of Nevada, Las Vegas: Digital Scholarship@UNLV Pacific |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Nevada, Las Vegas: Digital Scholarship@UNLV |
op_collection_id |
ftuninevadalveg |
language |
English |
topic |
Forecasting Ocean-atmosphere interaction—Research Ocean-atmosphere interaction--Simulation methods Streamflow Streamflow—Forecasting Water supply Civil and Environmental Engineering Engineering Environmental Engineering Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Forecasting Ocean-atmosphere interaction—Research Ocean-atmosphere interaction--Simulation methods Streamflow Streamflow—Forecasting Water supply Civil and Environmental Engineering Engineering Environmental Engineering Environmental Sciences Carrier, Christopher Allen Kalra, Ajay Ahmad, Sajjad Using proxy reconstructions for streamflow forecasting |
topic_facet |
Forecasting Ocean-atmosphere interaction—Research Ocean-atmosphere interaction--Simulation methods Streamflow Streamflow—Forecasting Water supply Civil and Environmental Engineering Engineering Environmental Engineering Environmental Sciences |
description |
The development of a long range streamflow forecast model using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations becomes useful when planning for future water supplies. A data-driven model, i.e. M5P, uses proxy reconstructions for streamflow forecasting with 1–5 year lead-times. The proxy reconstructions include annual oceanic-atmospheric indices including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) ranging from 1661–2007. The analysis focuses on naturalized streamflow for Lee's Ferry located in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). A10-fold cross-validation technique is used to test the efficiency of the model. The best results are obtained for 2-year lead-time. The proposed methodology outperforms the traditional linear regression modeling approach. The use of proxy reconstructions provides a robust model that is trained on a larger dataset than models trained only on the instrumental record. The proposed modeling technique is expected to be useful for water managers for long range water resources management within the Colorado River Basin. |
author2 |
R. E. Beighley II; M. W. Kilgore |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Carrier, Christopher Allen Kalra, Ajay Ahmad, Sajjad |
author_facet |
Carrier, Christopher Allen Kalra, Ajay Ahmad, Sajjad |
author_sort |
Carrier, Christopher Allen |
title |
Using proxy reconstructions for streamflow forecasting |
title_short |
Using proxy reconstructions for streamflow forecasting |
title_full |
Using proxy reconstructions for streamflow forecasting |
title_fullStr |
Using proxy reconstructions for streamflow forecasting |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using proxy reconstructions for streamflow forecasting |
title_sort |
using proxy reconstructions for streamflow forecasting |
publisher |
Digital Scholarship@UNLV |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/fac_articles/145 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Civil & Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Publications |
op_relation |
https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/fac_articles/145 |
_version_ |
1766131389936173056 |