Interactions within the climate-vegetation-fire nexus may transform 21st century boreal forests in northwestern Canada

• Published in: iScience
• Main Authors: Gaboriau, Dorian, M, Chaste, Émeline, Girardin, Martin, P, Asselin, Hugo, Ali, Adam, A, Bergeron, Yves, Hély, Christelle
• Other Authors: Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), SILVA (SILVA), AgroParisTech-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Ecologie fonctionnelle et biogéochimie des sols et des agro-écosystèmes (UMR Eco&Sols), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), Canadian Forest Service - CFS (CANADA), Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM), École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL), Polar Knowledge Canada (Grant # NST-1718-0014), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the Canadian Forest Service (CFS), theNational Geographic Society (NGS; Grant # EC-386R-18), the French University Institute (IUF), the International Research Laboratory on Cold Forests.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2023
• Subjects: [SDV.SA.SF]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Silviculture; forestry; [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; Canada; Northwest Territories
• Online Access: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04347203; https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04347203/document; https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04347203/file/Gaboriau-iScience-2023-CC-BY-NC-ND.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106807

International audience Dry and warm conditions have exacerbated the occurrence of large and severe wildfires over the past decade in Canada's Northwest Territories (NT). Although temperatures are expected to increase during the 21st century, we lack understanding of how the climate-vegetation-fire nexus might respond. We used a dynamic global vegetation model to project annual burn rates, as well as tree species composition and biomass in the NT during the 21st century using the IPCC's climate scenarios. Burn rates will decrease in most of the NT by the mid-21st century, concomitant with biomass loss of fire-prone evergreen needleleaf tree species, and biomass increase of broadleaf tree species. The southeastern NT is projected to experience enhanced fire activity by the late 21st century according to scenario RCP4.5, supported by a higher production of flammable evergreen needleleaf biomass. The results underlie the potential for major impacts of climate change on the NT's terrestrial ecosystems.