Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

• Published in: FACETS
• Main Authors: Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, Blanchard, Julia L., Coll, Marta, Pontavice, Hubert Du, Everett, Jason D., Guiet, Jerome, Heneghan, Ryan F., Maury, Olivier, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Tittensor, Derek P., Lotze, Heike K.
• Other Authors: Dalhousie University Halifax, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania Hobart, Australia (UTAS), University of Queensland Brisbane, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Canberra (CSIRO), University of New South Wales Sydney (UNSW), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Los Angeles (AOS), University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Queensland University of Technology Brisbane (QUT), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation - MARBEC (UMR MARBEC ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Texas A&M University College Station
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2023
• Subjects: [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology; Canada; Northwest Atlantic
• Online Access: https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-04313524; https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2023-0024

WOS:001072816700001 Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region.