Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean
WOS:001072816700001 Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Ye...
Published in: | FACETS |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-04313524 https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2023-0024 |
id |
ftunimontpellier:oai:HAL:hal-04313524v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunimontpellier:oai:HAL:hal-04313524v1 2024-02-11T10:07:13+01:00 Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea Blanchard, Julia L. Coll, Marta Pontavice, Hubert Du Everett, Jason D. Guiet, Jerome Heneghan, Ryan F. Maury, Olivier Novaglio, Camilla Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Petrik, Colleen M. Tittensor, Derek P. Lotze, Heike K. Dalhousie University Halifax Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology University of Tasmania Hobart, Australia (UTAS) University of Queensland Brisbane Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Canberra (CSIRO) University of New South Wales Sydney (UNSW) Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Los Angeles (AOS) University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) University of California (UC)-University of California (UC) Queensland University of Technology Brisbane (QUT) MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation - MARBEC (UMR MARBEC ) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM) Texas A&M University College Station 2023 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-04313524 https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2023-0024 en eng HAL CCSD info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1139/facets-2023-0024 hal-04313524 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-04313524 doi:10.1139/facets-2023-0024 IRD: fdi:010090255 FACETS https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-04313524 FACETS, 2023, 8, pp.1--16. ⟨10.1139/facets-2023-0024⟩ [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftunimontpellier https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2023-0024 2024-01-23T23:34:52Z WOS:001072816700001 Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northwest Atlantic Université de Montpellier: HAL Canada FACETS 8 1 16 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Montpellier: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunimontpellier |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
spellingShingle |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea Blanchard, Julia L. Coll, Marta Pontavice, Hubert Du Everett, Jason D. Guiet, Jerome Heneghan, Ryan F. Maury, Olivier Novaglio, Camilla Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Petrik, Colleen M. Tittensor, Derek P. Lotze, Heike K. Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean |
topic_facet |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
description |
WOS:001072816700001 Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region. |
author2 |
Dalhousie University Halifax Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology University of Tasmania Hobart, Australia (UTAS) University of Queensland Brisbane Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Canberra (CSIRO) University of New South Wales Sydney (UNSW) Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Los Angeles (AOS) University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) University of California (UC)-University of California (UC) Queensland University of Technology Brisbane (QUT) MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation - MARBEC (UMR MARBEC ) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM) Texas A&M University College Station |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea Blanchard, Julia L. Coll, Marta Pontavice, Hubert Du Everett, Jason D. Guiet, Jerome Heneghan, Ryan F. Maury, Olivier Novaglio, Camilla Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Petrik, Colleen M. Tittensor, Derek P. Lotze, Heike K. |
author_facet |
Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea Blanchard, Julia L. Coll, Marta Pontavice, Hubert Du Everett, Jason D. Guiet, Jerome Heneghan, Ryan F. Maury, Olivier Novaglio, Camilla Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Petrik, Colleen M. Tittensor, Derek P. Lotze, Heike K. |
author_sort |
Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea |
title |
Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean |
title_short |
Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean |
title_full |
Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean |
title_sort |
applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the northwest atlantic ocean |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-04313524 https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2023-0024 |
geographic |
Canada |
geographic_facet |
Canada |
genre |
Northwest Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northwest Atlantic |
op_source |
FACETS https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-04313524 FACETS, 2023, 8, pp.1--16. ⟨10.1139/facets-2023-0024⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1139/facets-2023-0024 hal-04313524 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-04313524 doi:10.1139/facets-2023-0024 IRD: fdi:010090255 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2023-0024 |
container_title |
FACETS |
container_volume |
8 |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
16 |
_version_ |
1790605379459088384 |