Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans
International audience Under climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for m...
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Online Access: | https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852/document https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852/file/facets-2019-0035.pdf https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2019-0035 |
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ftunimontpellier:oai:HAL:hal-03410852v1 2024-02-11T10:00:58+01:00 Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea Prentice, Faelan Tittensor, Derek Blanchard, Julia Cheung, William W.L. Christensen, Villy Galbraith, Eric Maury, Olivier Lotze, Heike MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) ANR-17-CE32-0008,CIGOEF,Impacts des changements climatiques sur les écosystèmes et les pêcheries océaniques globaux.(2017) 2020-01-01 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852/document https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852/file/facets-2019-0035.pdf https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2019-0035 en eng HAL CCSD Canadian Science Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1139/facets-2019-0035 hal-03410852 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852/document https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852/file/facets-2019-0035.pdf doi:10.1139/facets-2019-0035 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2371-1671 Facets https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852 Facets, 2020, 5 (1), pp.105-122. ⟨10.1139/facets-2019-0035⟩ [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftunimontpellier https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2019-0035 2024-01-23T23:38:17Z International audience Under climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. Using an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under four standardized emissions scenarios. By 2099, under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of −7.7% (±29.5%) within the Canadian EEZ, dominated by declines in the Pacific (−24% ± 24.5%) and Atlantic (−25.5% ± 9.5%) areas; these were partially compensated by increases in the Canadian Arctic (+26.2% ± 38.4%). Lower emissions scenarios projected successively smaller biomass changes, highlighting the benefits of stronger mitigation targets. Individual model projections were most consistent in the Atlantic and Pacific, but highly variable in the Arctic due to model uncertainties in polar regions. Different trajectories of future marine biomass changes will require regional-specific responses in conservation and management strategies, such as adaptive planning of marine protected areas and species-specific management plans, to enhance resilience and rebuilding of Canada’s marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Université de Montpellier: HAL Arctic Pacific FACETS 5 1 105 122 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Université de Montpellier: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunimontpellier |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea Prentice, Faelan Tittensor, Derek Blanchard, Julia Cheung, William W.L. Christensen, Villy Galbraith, Eric Maury, Olivier Lotze, Heike Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans |
topic_facet |
[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Under climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. Using an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under four standardized emissions scenarios. By 2099, under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of −7.7% (±29.5%) within the Canadian EEZ, dominated by declines in the Pacific (−24% ± 24.5%) and Atlantic (−25.5% ± 9.5%) areas; these were partially compensated by increases in the Canadian Arctic (+26.2% ± 38.4%). Lower emissions scenarios projected successively smaller biomass changes, highlighting the benefits of stronger mitigation targets. Individual model projections were most consistent in the Atlantic and Pacific, but highly variable in the Arctic due to model uncertainties in polar regions. Different trajectories of future marine biomass changes will require regional-specific responses in conservation and management strategies, such as adaptive planning of marine protected areas and species-specific management plans, to enhance resilience and rebuilding of Canada’s marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks. |
author2 |
MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) ANR-17-CE32-0008,CIGOEF,Impacts des changements climatiques sur les écosystèmes et les pêcheries océaniques globaux.(2017) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea Prentice, Faelan Tittensor, Derek Blanchard, Julia Cheung, William W.L. Christensen, Villy Galbraith, Eric Maury, Olivier Lotze, Heike |
author_facet |
Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea Prentice, Faelan Tittensor, Derek Blanchard, Julia Cheung, William W.L. Christensen, Villy Galbraith, Eric Maury, Olivier Lotze, Heike |
author_sort |
Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea |
title |
Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans |
title_short |
Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans |
title_full |
Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans |
title_fullStr |
Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans |
title_full_unstemmed |
Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans |
title_sort |
differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between canada’s three oceans |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852/document https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852/file/facets-2019-0035.pdf https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2019-0035 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
ISSN: 2371-1671 Facets https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852 Facets, 2020, 5 (1), pp.105-122. ⟨10.1139/facets-2019-0035⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1139/facets-2019-0035 hal-03410852 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852/document https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03410852/file/facets-2019-0035.pdf doi:10.1139/facets-2019-0035 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2019-0035 |
container_title |
FACETS |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
105 |
op_container_end_page |
122 |
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1790596688610590720 |