Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries
International audience Maghreb countries are highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, driven by the strong variability of precipitation. While several studies have analyzed the presence of trends in precipitation records for the Euro-Mediterranean basin, this st...
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ftunimontpellier:oai:HAL:hal-02414975v1 2023-12-17T10:46:48+01:00 Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries Tramblay, Yves El Adlouni, S. Servat, Éric Hydrosciences Montpellier (HSM) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) The publication of this article is financed by CNRS-INSU. 2013 https://hal.science/hal-02414975 https://hal.science/hal-02414975/document https://hal.science/hal-02414975/file/nhess-13-3235-2013.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus Publ. / European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 hal-02414975 https://hal.science/hal-02414975 https://hal.science/hal-02414975/document https://hal.science/hal-02414975/file/nhess-13-3235-2013.pdf doi:10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 IRD: fdi:010061447 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1561-8633 EISSN: 1684-9981 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences https://hal.science/hal-02414975 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2013, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13 (12), pp.3235-3248. ⟨10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013⟩ MAGHREB [SPI.GCIV.RISQ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2013 ftunimontpellier https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 2023-11-21T23:41:49Z International audience Maghreb countries are highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, driven by the strong variability of precipitation. While several studies have analyzed the presence of trends in precipitation records for the Euro-Mediterranean basin, this study provides a regional assessment of trends on its southernmost shores. A database of 22 stations located in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia with between 33 and 59 yr of daily precipitation records is considered. The change points and trends are analyzed for eleven climate indices, describing several features of the precipitation regime. The issue of conducting multiple hypothesis tests is addressed through the implementation of a false discovery rate procedure. The spatial and interannual variability of the precipitation indices at the different stations are analyzed and compared with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), western Mediterranean Oscillation (WEMO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show a strong tendency towards a decrease of precipitation totals and wet days together with an increase in the duration of dry periods, mainly for Morocco and western Algeria. On the other hand, only a few significant trends are detected for heavy precipitation indices. The NAO and MO patterns are well correlated with precipitation indices describing precipitation amounts, the number of dry days and the length of wet and dry periods, whereas heavy precipitation indices exhibit a strong spatial variability and are only moderately correlated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Université de Montpellier: HAL Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13 12 3235 3248 |
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Université de Montpellier: HAL |
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ftunimontpellier |
language |
English |
topic |
MAGHREB [SPI.GCIV.RISQ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
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MAGHREB [SPI.GCIV.RISQ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Tramblay, Yves El Adlouni, S. Servat, Éric Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries |
topic_facet |
MAGHREB [SPI.GCIV.RISQ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Maghreb countries are highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, driven by the strong variability of precipitation. While several studies have analyzed the presence of trends in precipitation records for the Euro-Mediterranean basin, this study provides a regional assessment of trends on its southernmost shores. A database of 22 stations located in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia with between 33 and 59 yr of daily precipitation records is considered. The change points and trends are analyzed for eleven climate indices, describing several features of the precipitation regime. The issue of conducting multiple hypothesis tests is addressed through the implementation of a false discovery rate procedure. The spatial and interannual variability of the precipitation indices at the different stations are analyzed and compared with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), western Mediterranean Oscillation (WEMO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show a strong tendency towards a decrease of precipitation totals and wet days together with an increase in the duration of dry periods, mainly for Morocco and western Algeria. On the other hand, only a few significant trends are detected for heavy precipitation indices. The NAO and MO patterns are well correlated with precipitation indices describing precipitation amounts, the number of dry days and the length of wet and dry periods, whereas heavy precipitation indices exhibit a strong spatial variability and are only moderately correlated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. |
author2 |
Hydrosciences Montpellier (HSM) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) The publication of this article is financed by CNRS-INSU. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tramblay, Yves El Adlouni, S. Servat, Éric |
author_facet |
Tramblay, Yves El Adlouni, S. Servat, Éric |
author_sort |
Tramblay, Yves |
title |
Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries |
title_short |
Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries |
title_full |
Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries |
title_fullStr |
Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries |
title_sort |
trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over maghreb countries |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02414975 https://hal.science/hal-02414975/document https://hal.science/hal-02414975/file/nhess-13-3235-2013.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ISSN: 1561-8633 EISSN: 1684-9981 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences https://hal.science/hal-02414975 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2013, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13 (12), pp.3235-3248. ⟨10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 hal-02414975 https://hal.science/hal-02414975 https://hal.science/hal-02414975/document https://hal.science/hal-02414975/file/nhess-13-3235-2013.pdf doi:10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 IRD: fdi:010061447 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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13 |
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12 |
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3235 |
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3248 |
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