Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability
International audience Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are...
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ftunimontpellier:oai:HAL:hal-01983751v1 2024-05-19T07:45:08+00:00 Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability Lenton, Timothy Dakos, Vasilis Bathiany, Sebastian Scheffer, Marten University of Exeter Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2017-12 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/document https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/file/41598_2017_Article_6382.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x en eng HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/28725011 hal-01983751 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/document https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/file/41598_2017_Article_6382.pdf doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x PUBMED: 28725011 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC5517648 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2045-2322 EISSN: 2045-2322 Scientific Reports https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751 Scientific Reports, 2017, 7 (1), ⟨10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2017 ftunimontpellier https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x 2024-05-01T00:32:10Z International audience Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are subjects of ongoing debate. Increases in the amplitude and persistence of temperature fluctuations have been detected in some regions, e.g. the North Pacific, but there is no agreed global signal. Here we systematically scan monthly surface temperature indices and spatial datasets to look for trends in variance and autocorrelation (persistence). We show that monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation increased over 1957-2002 across large parts of the North Pacific, North Atlantic, North America and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, (multi)decadal internal climate variability appears to influence trends in monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation. Historically-forced climate models do not reproduce the observed trends in temperature variance and autocorrelation, consistent with the models poorly capturing (multi)decadal internal climate variability. Based on a review of established spatial correlations and corresponding mechanistic 'teleconnections' we hypothesise that observed slowing down of sea surface temperature variability contributed to observed increases in land temperature variability and autocorrelation, which in turn contributed to persistent droughts in North America and the Mediterranean. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Université de Montpellier: HAL Scientific Reports 7 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Montpellier: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunimontpellier |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology Lenton, Timothy Dakos, Vasilis Bathiany, Sebastian Scheffer, Marten Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
description |
International audience Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are subjects of ongoing debate. Increases in the amplitude and persistence of temperature fluctuations have been detected in some regions, e.g. the North Pacific, but there is no agreed global signal. Here we systematically scan monthly surface temperature indices and spatial datasets to look for trends in variance and autocorrelation (persistence). We show that monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation increased over 1957-2002 across large parts of the North Pacific, North Atlantic, North America and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, (multi)decadal internal climate variability appears to influence trends in monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation. Historically-forced climate models do not reproduce the observed trends in temperature variance and autocorrelation, consistent with the models poorly capturing (multi)decadal internal climate variability. Based on a review of established spatial correlations and corresponding mechanistic 'teleconnections' we hypothesise that observed slowing down of sea surface temperature variability contributed to observed increases in land temperature variability and autocorrelation, which in turn contributed to persistent droughts in North America and the Mediterranean. |
author2 |
University of Exeter Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lenton, Timothy Dakos, Vasilis Bathiany, Sebastian Scheffer, Marten |
author_facet |
Lenton, Timothy Dakos, Vasilis Bathiany, Sebastian Scheffer, Marten |
author_sort |
Lenton, Timothy |
title |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_short |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_full |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_fullStr |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_sort |
observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/document https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/file/41598_2017_Article_6382.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 2045-2322 EISSN: 2045-2322 Scientific Reports https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751 Scientific Reports, 2017, 7 (1), ⟨10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/28725011 hal-01983751 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/document https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/file/41598_2017_Article_6382.pdf doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x PUBMED: 28725011 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC5517648 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1799485086866866176 |