Analiza temperaturnega režima vodotokov v Sloveniji

• Main Author: Matul, Nika
• Other Authors: Mikoš, Matjaž
• Format: Bachelor Thesis
• Language: Slovenian
• Published: N. Matul 2015
• Subjects: gradbeništvo; diplomska naloga; UNI; VKI; temperaturni trendi rek; podnebne spremembe; statistična analiza; hidrologija; graduation thesis; civil engineering; stream temperature; trend; climate change; statistical analysis; hydrology; info:eu-repo/classification/udc/519.23:551.583:556(497.4)(043.2); Kendall; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/IzpisGradiva.php?id=32738; https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?id=32749&dn=; https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?id=86118&dn=; https://plus.si.cobiss.net/opac7/bib/6972513?lang=sl

Glede na trende globalnega segrevanja zemeljskega ozračja pričakujemo trend segrevanja površinskih voda. V okviru diplomske naloge smo analizirali obstoječe podatke o temperaturi vode vodotokov v Sloveniji. Z uporabo Mann-Kendallovega statističnega testa je večina analiziranih vodomernih postaj izkazala statistično značilen naraščajoč trend. Pomanjkljivosti in nepravilnosti med nizi temperaturnih podatkov kot tudi antropogeni vplivi na vodotoke so vzroki za nekaj statistično neznačilnih rezultatov. Na temperaturo vode v vodotokih v veliki meri vplivajo vremenske razmere, ki jih najlažje opišemo s temperaturo zraka. Izbranim vodomernim postajam smo tako poiskali prostorsko primerljive meteorološke postaje s podatki o temperaturi zraka. Preverili smo Pearsonov koeficient korelacije med temperaturo vode in zraka, ki je kljub težavam s kakovostjo obravnavanih podatkov temperature vode in zraka zadovoljiva. Rezultat analize trendov temperature vode vodotokov po letnih časih je pokazal zaskrbljujočo rast temperature vode v poletnih mesecih. Temperatura vodotokov se ne spreminja le časovno, temveč tudi prostorsko. Preverili smo, kako se spreminja povprečna temperatura vode vzdolž vodotoka za reki Savo in Savinjo. Preverjali smo tudi povezavo temperature vode in zraka z indeksoma severnoatlantske in sredozemske oscilacije. Rezultati so pokazali slabo ujemanje. Indeksi korelacije med temperaturo vode in indeksi oscilacije so v veliki večini statistično neznačilni. Temperatura zraka z indeksi oscilacije korelira bolje kot temperatura vode, še posebej v zimskih mesecih. Ugotovili smo, da bi za večjo kakovost analiz potrebovali daljše, zvezne in homogenizirane časovne nize podatkov o temperaturi vode. In line with global warming trends, warming of surface waters is expected. As part of the thesis, we analysed existing data of river water temperature in Slovenia. Most analysed hydrological gauging stations proved statistically significant upward trend, using Mann–Kendall statistical test. We noted that causes for statistically insignificant results on some stations, are deficiencies and irregularities in sets of temperature data and anthropogenic impacts on watercourses. Water temperature in rivers is heavily influenced by weather conditions, in particular air temperature. Water temperature data of selected water gauging stations were compared with air temperature data of space comparable meteorological station. We examined the Pearson correlation coefficient between water and air temperature. Correlation is sufficient, despite the problems with different quality of the air and water temperature data. The results of seasonal analysis of stream water temperature trends, showed an alarming rise of water temperature in the summer months. The temperature of the water courses vary, not only temporally but also geographically. We examined how the average water temperature is changing along the stream of rivers Sava and Savinja. We also examined the connection of air and water temperatures with the index of North Atlantic and Mediterranean oscillations. The results showed poor matching. The majority of correlation indexes between water temperature and oscillation indexes are statistically insignificant. Air temperature data correlate with indexes of oscillations better than water temperature, especially in the winter months. We have found that for the higher quality of the analyses, we would need longer, connected and homogenized series of water temperature data.