Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea
Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological...
Published in: | Netherlands Journal of Geosciences |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2018
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11370/e91641c3-4ee8-421b-bf4c-7aa769944669 https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/e91641c3-4ee8-421b-bf4c-7aa769944669 https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2018.7 https://pure.rug.nl/ws/files/66805087/sealevel_change_in_the_dutch_wadden_sea.pdf |
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Open Polar |
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University of Groningen research database |
op_collection_id |
ftunigroningenpu |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change regional sea-level scenarios sea-level rise Wadden Sea GLACIAL-ISOSTATIC-ADJUSTMENT SOUTHERN NORTH-SEA ICE-SHEET DYNAMICS OCEAN HEAT-CONTENT RHINE-MEUSE DELTA SATELLITE ALTIMETRY CLIMATE-CHANGE BRITISH-ISLES WESTERN NETHERLANDS MASS-BALANCE |
spellingShingle |
climate change regional sea-level scenarios sea-level rise Wadden Sea GLACIAL-ISOSTATIC-ADJUSTMENT SOUTHERN NORTH-SEA ICE-SHEET DYNAMICS OCEAN HEAT-CONTENT RHINE-MEUSE DELTA SATELLITE ALTIMETRY CLIMATE-CHANGE BRITISH-ISLES WESTERN NETHERLANDS MASS-BALANCE Vermeersen, Bert L. A. Slangen, Aimee B. A. Gerkema, Theo Baart, Fedor Cohen, Kim M. Dangendorf, Sonke Duran-Matute, Matthias Frederikse, Thomas Grinsted, Aslak Hijma, Marc P. Jevrejeva, Svetlana Kiden, Patrick Kleinherenbrink, Marcel Meijles, Erik W. Palmer, Matthew D. Rietbroek, Roelof Riva, Riccardo E. M. Schulz, Elisabeth Slobbe, D. Cornelis Simpson, Matthew J. R. Sterlini, Paul Stocchi, Paolo van de Wal, Roderik S. W. van der Wegen, Mick Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea |
topic_facet |
climate change regional sea-level scenarios sea-level rise Wadden Sea GLACIAL-ISOSTATIC-ADJUSTMENT SOUTHERN NORTH-SEA ICE-SHEET DYNAMICS OCEAN HEAT-CONTENT RHINE-MEUSE DELTA SATELLITE ALTIMETRY CLIMATE-CHANGE BRITISH-ISLES WESTERN NETHERLANDS MASS-BALANCE |
description |
Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl. We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5. For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07 +/- 0.06 m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018-30 (uncertainties representing 5-95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01 m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6 mm a(-1) for ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vermeersen, Bert L. A. Slangen, Aimee B. A. Gerkema, Theo Baart, Fedor Cohen, Kim M. Dangendorf, Sonke Duran-Matute, Matthias Frederikse, Thomas Grinsted, Aslak Hijma, Marc P. Jevrejeva, Svetlana Kiden, Patrick Kleinherenbrink, Marcel Meijles, Erik W. Palmer, Matthew D. Rietbroek, Roelof Riva, Riccardo E. M. Schulz, Elisabeth Slobbe, D. Cornelis Simpson, Matthew J. R. Sterlini, Paul Stocchi, Paolo van de Wal, Roderik S. W. van der Wegen, Mick |
author_facet |
Vermeersen, Bert L. A. Slangen, Aimee B. A. Gerkema, Theo Baart, Fedor Cohen, Kim M. Dangendorf, Sonke Duran-Matute, Matthias Frederikse, Thomas Grinsted, Aslak Hijma, Marc P. Jevrejeva, Svetlana Kiden, Patrick Kleinherenbrink, Marcel Meijles, Erik W. Palmer, Matthew D. Rietbroek, Roelof Riva, Riccardo E. M. Schulz, Elisabeth Slobbe, D. Cornelis Simpson, Matthew J. R. Sterlini, Paul Stocchi, Paolo van de Wal, Roderik S. W. van der Wegen, Mick |
author_sort |
Vermeersen, Bert L. A. |
title |
Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea |
title_short |
Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea |
title_full |
Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea |
title_fullStr |
Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea |
title_sort |
sea-level change in the dutch wadden sea |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11370/e91641c3-4ee8-421b-bf4c-7aa769944669 https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/e91641c3-4ee8-421b-bf4c-7aa769944669 https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2018.7 https://pure.rug.nl/ws/files/66805087/sealevel_change_in_the_dutch_wadden_sea.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Sea ice |
op_source |
Vermeersen , B L A , Slangen , A B A , Gerkema , T , Baart , F , Cohen , K M , Dangendorf , S , Duran-Matute , M , Frederikse , T , Grinsted , A , Hijma , M P , Jevrejeva , S , Kiden , P , Kleinherenbrink , M , Meijles , E W , Palmer , M D , Rietbroek , R , Riva , R E M , Schulz , E , Slobbe , D C , Simpson , M J R , Sterlini , P , Stocchi , P , van de Wal , R S W & van der Wegen , M 2018 , ' Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea ' , Netherlands journal of geosciences-Geologie en mijnbouw , vol. 97 , no. 3 , pp. 79-127 . https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2018.7 |
op_relation |
https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/e91641c3-4ee8-421b-bf4c-7aa769944669 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2018.7 |
container_title |
Netherlands Journal of Geosciences |
container_volume |
97 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
79 |
op_container_end_page |
127 |
_version_ |
1809826798371864576 |
spelling |
ftunigroningenpu:oai:pure.rug.nl:publications/e91641c3-4ee8-421b-bf4c-7aa769944669 2024-09-09T19:11:08+00:00 Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea Vermeersen, Bert L. A. Slangen, Aimee B. A. Gerkema, Theo Baart, Fedor Cohen, Kim M. Dangendorf, Sonke Duran-Matute, Matthias Frederikse, Thomas Grinsted, Aslak Hijma, Marc P. Jevrejeva, Svetlana Kiden, Patrick Kleinherenbrink, Marcel Meijles, Erik W. Palmer, Matthew D. Rietbroek, Roelof Riva, Riccardo E. M. Schulz, Elisabeth Slobbe, D. Cornelis Simpson, Matthew J. R. Sterlini, Paul Stocchi, Paolo van de Wal, Roderik S. W. van der Wegen, Mick 2018-09 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11370/e91641c3-4ee8-421b-bf4c-7aa769944669 https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/e91641c3-4ee8-421b-bf4c-7aa769944669 https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2018.7 https://pure.rug.nl/ws/files/66805087/sealevel_change_in_the_dutch_wadden_sea.pdf eng eng https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/e91641c3-4ee8-421b-bf4c-7aa769944669 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Vermeersen , B L A , Slangen , A B A , Gerkema , T , Baart , F , Cohen , K M , Dangendorf , S , Duran-Matute , M , Frederikse , T , Grinsted , A , Hijma , M P , Jevrejeva , S , Kiden , P , Kleinherenbrink , M , Meijles , E W , Palmer , M D , Rietbroek , R , Riva , R E M , Schulz , E , Slobbe , D C , Simpson , M J R , Sterlini , P , Stocchi , P , van de Wal , R S W & van der Wegen , M 2018 , ' Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea ' , Netherlands journal of geosciences-Geologie en mijnbouw , vol. 97 , no. 3 , pp. 79-127 . https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2018.7 climate change regional sea-level scenarios sea-level rise Wadden Sea GLACIAL-ISOSTATIC-ADJUSTMENT SOUTHERN NORTH-SEA ICE-SHEET DYNAMICS OCEAN HEAT-CONTENT RHINE-MEUSE DELTA SATELLITE ALTIMETRY CLIMATE-CHANGE BRITISH-ISLES WESTERN NETHERLANDS MASS-BALANCE article 2018 ftunigroningenpu https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2018.7 2024-06-17T16:14:17Z Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl. We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5. For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07 +/- 0.06 m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018-30 (uncertainties representing 5-95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01 m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6 mm a(-1) for ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Sea ice University of Groningen research database Netherlands Journal of Geosciences 97 3 79 127 |