Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese:Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming
Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population-dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting c...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2020
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11370/a7a2658e-c5da-4419-970a-a977bb09ccb7 https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/a7a2658e-c5da-4419-970a-a977bb09ccb7 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14773 https://pure.rug.nl/ws/files/118404402/Layton_Matthews_et_al_2020_Global_Change_Biology.pdf |
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ftunigroningenpu:oai:pure.rug.nl:publications/a7a2658e-c5da-4419-970a-a977bb09ccb7 2024-06-23T07:48:38+00:00 Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese:Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming Layton-Matthews, Kate Hansen, Brage Bremset Grotan, Vidar Fuglei, Eva Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. 2020-02 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11370/a7a2658e-c5da-4419-970a-a977bb09ccb7 https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/a7a2658e-c5da-4419-970a-a977bb09ccb7 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14773 https://pure.rug.nl/ws/files/118404402/Layton_Matthews_et_al_2020_Global_Change_Biology.pdf eng eng https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/a7a2658e-c5da-4419-970a-a977bb09ccb7 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Layton-Matthews , K , Hansen , B B , Grotan , V , Fuglei , E & Loonen , M J J E 2020 , ' Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese : Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming ' , Global Change Biology , vol. 26 , no. 2 , pp. 642-657 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14773 Arctic amplification Arctic geese barnacle goose carryover effects climate change migration population dynamics trophic interactions PINK-FOOTED GEESE GOOSE BRANTA-LEUCOPSIS LONG-DISTANCE MIGRANT BARNACLE GEESE POPULATION-DYNAMICS REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS PLANT PHENOLOGY SNOW GEESE ENVIRONMENTAL STOCHASTICITY article 2020 ftunigroningenpu https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14773 2024-06-10T16:52:52Z Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population-dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non-hunted population of high-arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual-based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age-specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green-up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non-breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density-dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density-dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Fox Arctic Barnacle goose Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard University of Groningen research database Arctic Norway Svalbard Global Change Biology 26 2 642 657 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Groningen research database |
op_collection_id |
ftunigroningenpu |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic amplification Arctic geese barnacle goose carryover effects climate change migration population dynamics trophic interactions PINK-FOOTED GEESE GOOSE BRANTA-LEUCOPSIS LONG-DISTANCE MIGRANT BARNACLE GEESE POPULATION-DYNAMICS REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS PLANT PHENOLOGY SNOW GEESE ENVIRONMENTAL STOCHASTICITY |
spellingShingle |
Arctic amplification Arctic geese barnacle goose carryover effects climate change migration population dynamics trophic interactions PINK-FOOTED GEESE GOOSE BRANTA-LEUCOPSIS LONG-DISTANCE MIGRANT BARNACLE GEESE POPULATION-DYNAMICS REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS PLANT PHENOLOGY SNOW GEESE ENVIRONMENTAL STOCHASTICITY Layton-Matthews, Kate Hansen, Brage Bremset Grotan, Vidar Fuglei, Eva Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese:Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming |
topic_facet |
Arctic amplification Arctic geese barnacle goose carryover effects climate change migration population dynamics trophic interactions PINK-FOOTED GEESE GOOSE BRANTA-LEUCOPSIS LONG-DISTANCE MIGRANT BARNACLE GEESE POPULATION-DYNAMICS REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS PLANT PHENOLOGY SNOW GEESE ENVIRONMENTAL STOCHASTICITY |
description |
Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population-dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non-hunted population of high-arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual-based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age-specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green-up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non-breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density-dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density-dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Layton-Matthews, Kate Hansen, Brage Bremset Grotan, Vidar Fuglei, Eva Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. |
author_facet |
Layton-Matthews, Kate Hansen, Brage Bremset Grotan, Vidar Fuglei, Eva Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. |
author_sort |
Layton-Matthews, Kate |
title |
Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese:Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming |
title_short |
Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese:Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming |
title_full |
Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese:Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming |
title_fullStr |
Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese:Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese:Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming |
title_sort |
contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese:predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11370/a7a2658e-c5da-4419-970a-a977bb09ccb7 https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/a7a2658e-c5da-4419-970a-a977bb09ccb7 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14773 https://pure.rug.nl/ws/files/118404402/Layton_Matthews_et_al_2020_Global_Change_Biology.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Norway Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Norway Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Fox Arctic Barnacle goose Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Fox Arctic Barnacle goose Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard |
op_source |
Layton-Matthews , K , Hansen , B B , Grotan , V , Fuglei , E & Loonen , M J J E 2020 , ' Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese : Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming ' , Global Change Biology , vol. 26 , no. 2 , pp. 642-657 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14773 |
op_relation |
https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/a7a2658e-c5da-4419-970a-a977bb09ccb7 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14773 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
26 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
642 |
op_container_end_page |
657 |
_version_ |
1802638975646564352 |