Seasonal and regional contrasts of future trends in interannual arctic climate variability
Future changes in interannual variability (IAV) of Arctic climate indicators such as sea ice and precipitation are still fairly uncertain. Alongside global warming-induced changes in means, a thorough understanding of IAV is needed to more accurately predict sea ice variability, distinguish trends a...
Published in: | Climate Dynamics |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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2023
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11370/669911c6-f67e-421d-ba2e-af3342c3fc75 https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/669911c6-f67e-421d-ba2e-af3342c3fc75 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06766-y https://pure.rug.nl/ws/files/790623899/s00382-023-06766-y.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85151526506&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftunigroningenpu:oai:pure.rug.nl:publications/669911c6-f67e-421d-ba2e-af3342c3fc75 2024-09-15T17:50:46+00:00 Seasonal and regional contrasts of future trends in interannual arctic climate variability Kolbe, Marlen Bintanja, Richard van der Linden, Eveline C. 2023-10 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11370/669911c6-f67e-421d-ba2e-af3342c3fc75 https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/669911c6-f67e-421d-ba2e-af3342c3fc75 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06766-y https://pure.rug.nl/ws/files/790623899/s00382-023-06766-y.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85151526506&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/669911c6-f67e-421d-ba2e-af3342c3fc75 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Kolbe , M , Bintanja , R & van der Linden , E C 2023 , ' Seasonal and regional contrasts of future trends in interannual arctic climate variability ' , Climate dynamics , vol. 61 , no. 7-8 , pp. 3673-3706 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06766-y Arctic climate Interannual variability Precipitation Sea ice Surface temperature article 2023 ftunigroningenpu https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06766-y 2024-07-01T14:49:22Z Future changes in interannual variability (IAV) of Arctic climate indicators such as sea ice and precipitation are still fairly uncertain. Alongside global warming-induced changes in means, a thorough understanding of IAV is needed to more accurately predict sea ice variability, distinguish trends and natural variability, as well as to reduce uncertainty around the likelihood of extreme events. In this study we rank and select CMIP6 models based on their ability to replicate observations, and quantify simulated IAV trends (1981–2100) of Arctic surface air temperature, evaporation, precipitation, and sea ice concentration under continued global warming. We argue that calculating IAV on grid points before area-averaging allows for a more realistic picture of Arctic-wide changes. Large model ensembles suggest that on shorter time scales (30 years), IAV of all variables is strongly dominated by natural variability (e.g. 93% for sea ice area in March). Long-term trends of IAV are more robust, and reveal strong seasonal and regional differences in their magnitude or even sign. For example, IAV of surface temperature increases in the Central Arctic, but decreases in lower latitudes. Arctic precipitation variability increases more in summer than in winter; especially over land, where in the future it will dominantly fall as rain. Our results emphasize the need to address such seasonal and regional differences when portraying future trends of Arctic climate variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Sea ice University of Groningen research database Climate Dynamics 61 7-8 3673 3706 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Groningen research database |
op_collection_id |
ftunigroningenpu |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic climate Interannual variability Precipitation Sea ice Surface temperature |
spellingShingle |
Arctic climate Interannual variability Precipitation Sea ice Surface temperature Kolbe, Marlen Bintanja, Richard van der Linden, Eveline C. Seasonal and regional contrasts of future trends in interannual arctic climate variability |
topic_facet |
Arctic climate Interannual variability Precipitation Sea ice Surface temperature |
description |
Future changes in interannual variability (IAV) of Arctic climate indicators such as sea ice and precipitation are still fairly uncertain. Alongside global warming-induced changes in means, a thorough understanding of IAV is needed to more accurately predict sea ice variability, distinguish trends and natural variability, as well as to reduce uncertainty around the likelihood of extreme events. In this study we rank and select CMIP6 models based on their ability to replicate observations, and quantify simulated IAV trends (1981–2100) of Arctic surface air temperature, evaporation, precipitation, and sea ice concentration under continued global warming. We argue that calculating IAV on grid points before area-averaging allows for a more realistic picture of Arctic-wide changes. Large model ensembles suggest that on shorter time scales (30 years), IAV of all variables is strongly dominated by natural variability (e.g. 93% for sea ice area in March). Long-term trends of IAV are more robust, and reveal strong seasonal and regional differences in their magnitude or even sign. For example, IAV of surface temperature increases in the Central Arctic, but decreases in lower latitudes. Arctic precipitation variability increases more in summer than in winter; especially over land, where in the future it will dominantly fall as rain. Our results emphasize the need to address such seasonal and regional differences when portraying future trends of Arctic climate variability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kolbe, Marlen Bintanja, Richard van der Linden, Eveline C. |
author_facet |
Kolbe, Marlen Bintanja, Richard van der Linden, Eveline C. |
author_sort |
Kolbe, Marlen |
title |
Seasonal and regional contrasts of future trends in interannual arctic climate variability |
title_short |
Seasonal and regional contrasts of future trends in interannual arctic climate variability |
title_full |
Seasonal and regional contrasts of future trends in interannual arctic climate variability |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal and regional contrasts of future trends in interannual arctic climate variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal and regional contrasts of future trends in interannual arctic climate variability |
title_sort |
seasonal and regional contrasts of future trends in interannual arctic climate variability |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11370/669911c6-f67e-421d-ba2e-af3342c3fc75 https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/669911c6-f67e-421d-ba2e-af3342c3fc75 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06766-y https://pure.rug.nl/ws/files/790623899/s00382-023-06766-y.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85151526506&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
genre |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Kolbe , M , Bintanja , R & van der Linden , E C 2023 , ' Seasonal and regional contrasts of future trends in interannual arctic climate variability ' , Climate dynamics , vol. 61 , no. 7-8 , pp. 3673-3706 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06766-y |
op_relation |
https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/669911c6-f67e-421d-ba2e-af3342c3fc75 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06766-y |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
61 |
container_issue |
7-8 |
container_start_page |
3673 |
op_container_end_page |
3706 |
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1810292568946114560 |