Permafrost and infrastructure in the Usa Basin (Northeast European Russia):Possible impacts of global warming

• Published in: AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment
• Main Authors: Mazhitova, G., Karstkarel, N., Oberman, N., Romanovsky, V., Kuhry, P.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2004
• Subjects: GCM; permafrost
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/11370/287656d9-8c22-404d-a474-1b7864ffe9fd; https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/287656d9-8c22-404d-a474-1b7864ffe9fd; https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-33.6.289

The relationship between permafrost conditions and the distribution of infrastructure in the Usa Basin, Northeast European Russia, is analyzed. About 75% of the Basin is underlain by permafrost terrain with various degrees of continuity (isolated patches to continuous permafrost). The region has a high level of urban and industrial development (e.g., towns, coal mines, hydrocarbon extraction sites, railway, pipelines). GIS-analyses indicate that about 60% of all infrastructure is located in the 'high risk' perma-frost area, here defined as the zones of isolated to discontinuous permafrost (3-90% coverage) with 'warm' ground temperatures (0 to -2degreesC). Ground monitoring, aerial photo interpretation, and permafrost modeling suggest a differential response to future global warming. Most of the permafrost-affected terrain will likely start to thaw within a few decades to a century. This forecast poses serious challenges to permafrost engineering and calls for long-term investments in adequate infrastructure that will payback overtime.