Improving Peary Caribou Presence Predictions in MaxEnt Using Spatialized Snow Simulations
International audience The Arctic has warmed at twice the global average over recent decades, which has led to a reduction in the spatial extent and mass balance of snow. The increase in occurrence of winter extreme events such as rain-on-snow, blizzards, and heat waves has a significant impact on s...
Published in: | ARCTIC |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2022
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Online Access: | https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133/file/Martineau_2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic74868 |
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Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL |
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English |
topic |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Ecosystems [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Ecosystems [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Martineau, Chloé Langlois, Alexandre Gouttevin, Isabelle Neave, Erin Johnson, Cheryl Improving Peary Caribou Presence Predictions in MaxEnt Using Spatialized Snow Simulations |
topic_facet |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Ecosystems [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience The Arctic has warmed at twice the global average over recent decades, which has led to a reduction in the spatial extent and mass balance of snow. The increase in occurrence of winter extreme events such as rain-on-snow, blizzards, and heat waves has a significant impact on snow thickness and density. Dense snowpack conditions can decrease or completely prevent foraging by Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) by creating “locked pastures,” a situation where forage is present but not accessible under snow or ice. Prolonged and severe weather events have been linked to poor body condition, malnutrition, high adult mortality, calf losses, and major population die-offs in Peary caribou. Previous work has established the link between declines in Peary caribou numbers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and snow conditions, however these efforts have been limited by the quality and resolution of data describing snow physical properties in the Arctic. Here, we 1) investigate whether a snow model adapted for the Antarctic (SNOWPACK) can produce snow simulations relevant to Canadian High Arctic conditions, and 2) test snow model outputs to determine their utility in predicting Peary caribou occurrence with MaxEnt modelling software. We model Peary caribou occurrence across three seasons: July – October (summer forage and rut), November – March (fall movement and winter forage), and April – June (spring movement and calving). Results of snow simulations using the Antarctic SNOWPACK model demonstrated that both top and bottom density values were greatly improved when compared to simulations using the original version developed for alpine conditions. Results were also more consistent with field measurements using the Antarctic model, though it underestimated the top layer density compared to on-site measurements. Modelled outputs including snow depth and CT350 (cumulative thickness of snow layers surpassing the critical density value of 350 kg·m-3; a density threshold relevant to caribou) proved ... |
author2 |
Département de géomatique appliquée Sherbrooke (UdeS) Université de Sherbrooke (UdeS) Centre d'Etudes Nordiques (CEN) Université Laval Québec (ULaval) Centre d'Etudes de la Neige (CEN) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG )-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Organisation Mondiale de la Santé / World Health Organization Office Genève, Suisse (OMS / WHO) London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Martineau, Chloé Langlois, Alexandre Gouttevin, Isabelle Neave, Erin Johnson, Cheryl |
author_facet |
Martineau, Chloé Langlois, Alexandre Gouttevin, Isabelle Neave, Erin Johnson, Cheryl |
author_sort |
Martineau, Chloé |
title |
Improving Peary Caribou Presence Predictions in MaxEnt Using Spatialized Snow Simulations |
title_short |
Improving Peary Caribou Presence Predictions in MaxEnt Using Spatialized Snow Simulations |
title_full |
Improving Peary Caribou Presence Predictions in MaxEnt Using Spatialized Snow Simulations |
title_fullStr |
Improving Peary Caribou Presence Predictions in MaxEnt Using Spatialized Snow Simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improving Peary Caribou Presence Predictions in MaxEnt Using Spatialized Snow Simulations |
title_sort |
improving peary caribou presence predictions in maxent using spatialized snow simulations |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133/file/Martineau_2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic74868 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Arctic Archipelago Canadian Arctic Archipelago Rangifer tarandus |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Arctic Archipelago Canadian Arctic Archipelago Rangifer tarandus |
op_source |
ISSN: 0004-0843 Arctic https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133 Arctic, 2022, 75 (1), pp.55-71. ⟨10.14430/arctic74868⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.14430/arctic74868 meteo-03930133 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133/file/Martineau_2022.pdf doi:10.14430/arctic74868 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic74868 |
container_title |
ARCTIC |
container_volume |
75 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
55 |
op_container_end_page |
71 |
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1810488721952210944 |
spelling |
ftunigrenoble:oai:HAL:meteo-03930133v1 2024-09-15T17:42:13+00:00 Improving Peary Caribou Presence Predictions in MaxEnt Using Spatialized Snow Simulations Martineau, Chloé Langlois, Alexandre Gouttevin, Isabelle Neave, Erin Johnson, Cheryl Département de géomatique appliquée Sherbrooke (UdeS) Université de Sherbrooke (UdeS) Centre d'Etudes Nordiques (CEN) Université Laval Québec (ULaval) Centre d'Etudes de la Neige (CEN) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG )-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Organisation Mondiale de la Santé / World Health Organization Office Genève, Suisse (OMS / WHO) London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) 2022-03-14 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133/file/Martineau_2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic74868 en eng HAL CCSD Arctic Institute of North America info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.14430/arctic74868 meteo-03930133 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133/file/Martineau_2022.pdf doi:10.14430/arctic74868 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0004-0843 Arctic https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03930133 Arctic, 2022, 75 (1), pp.55-71. ⟨10.14430/arctic74868⟩ [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Ecosystems [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftunigrenoble https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic74868 2024-07-08T23:46:06Z International audience The Arctic has warmed at twice the global average over recent decades, which has led to a reduction in the spatial extent and mass balance of snow. The increase in occurrence of winter extreme events such as rain-on-snow, blizzards, and heat waves has a significant impact on snow thickness and density. Dense snowpack conditions can decrease or completely prevent foraging by Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) by creating “locked pastures,” a situation where forage is present but not accessible under snow or ice. Prolonged and severe weather events have been linked to poor body condition, malnutrition, high adult mortality, calf losses, and major population die-offs in Peary caribou. Previous work has established the link between declines in Peary caribou numbers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and snow conditions, however these efforts have been limited by the quality and resolution of data describing snow physical properties in the Arctic. Here, we 1) investigate whether a snow model adapted for the Antarctic (SNOWPACK) can produce snow simulations relevant to Canadian High Arctic conditions, and 2) test snow model outputs to determine their utility in predicting Peary caribou occurrence with MaxEnt modelling software. We model Peary caribou occurrence across three seasons: July – October (summer forage and rut), November – March (fall movement and winter forage), and April – June (spring movement and calving). Results of snow simulations using the Antarctic SNOWPACK model demonstrated that both top and bottom density values were greatly improved when compared to simulations using the original version developed for alpine conditions. Results were also more consistent with field measurements using the Antarctic model, though it underestimated the top layer density compared to on-site measurements. Modelled outputs including snow depth and CT350 (cumulative thickness of snow layers surpassing the critical density value of 350 kg·m-3; a density threshold relevant to caribou) proved ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Arctic Archipelago Canadian Arctic Archipelago Rangifer tarandus Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL ARCTIC 75 1 55 71 |