Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes
PII S0022143022001034 International audience This work proposes a holistic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment that evaluates, at reasonable computational costs and for various types of buildings, the impact of forest cover changes on the probability distribution of runout distances, impact...
Published in: | Journal of Glaciology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03924185 https://hal.science/hal-03924185/document https://hal.science/hal-03924185/file/diachronic-quantitative-snow-avalanche-risk-assessment-as-a-function-of-forest-cover-changes.pdf https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.103 |
id |
ftunigrenoble:oai:HAL:hal-03924185v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunigrenoble |
language |
English |
topic |
Avalanches glaciological natural hazards snow [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Avalanches glaciological natural hazards snow [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences Zgheib, Taline Giacona, Florie Morin, Samuel Granet-Abisset, Anne-Marie Favier, Philoméne Eckert, Nicolas Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes |
topic_facet |
Avalanches glaciological natural hazards snow [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences |
description |
PII S0022143022001034 International audience This work proposes a holistic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment that evaluates, at reasonable computational costs and for various types of buildings, the impact of forest cover changes on the probability distribution of runout distances, impact pressures and subsequent risk estimates. A typical case study of the French Alps shows that, from a completely deforested to a completely forested path, avalanche risk for a building located downslope decreases by 53–99%, depending on how forest cover is accounted for in avalanche statistical–dynamical modeling. Local forest cover data inferred from old maps and photographs further demonstrates that a 20–60% risk reduction actually occurred between 1825 and 2017 at the site because of the afforestation dynamics, with significant modulations according to the considered building technology. These results (1) assert the protective role of forests against snow avalanches, (2) highlight the potential of combining nature-based solutions with traditional structural measures to reduce risk to acceptable levels at reasonable costs, (3) suggest a significant decrease in risk to settlements in areas that encountered similar forest cover changes and (4) open the door to the quantification of long-term avalanche risk changes as a function of changes of all its hazard, vulnerability and exposure drivers in various mountain context. |
author2 |
Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches (UR ETGR (ETNA)) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Centre d'Etudes de la Neige (CEN) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG )-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Territoire, environnement, santé (LARHRA-TES) LAboratoire de Recherche Historique Rhône-Alpes - UMR5190 (LARHRA) École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 (UJML) Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 (UJML) Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne (UR LESSEM) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) - ANR-15-IDEX-02 : CDP-Trajectories frameworkin the framework of the ‘Investissements d’avenir’ program - ANR-20-Tremplin-ERC8-0001 SMARTEN program |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zgheib, Taline Giacona, Florie Morin, Samuel Granet-Abisset, Anne-Marie Favier, Philoméne Eckert, Nicolas |
author_facet |
Zgheib, Taline Giacona, Florie Morin, Samuel Granet-Abisset, Anne-Marie Favier, Philoméne Eckert, Nicolas |
author_sort |
Zgheib, Taline |
title |
Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes |
title_short |
Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes |
title_full |
Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes |
title_fullStr |
Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes |
title_sort |
diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03924185 https://hal.science/hal-03924185/document https://hal.science/hal-03924185/file/diachronic-quantitative-snow-avalanche-risk-assessment-as-a-function-of-forest-cover-changes.pdf https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.103 |
genre |
Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
ISSN: 0022-1430 EISSN: 1727-5652 Journal of Glaciology https://hal.science/hal-03924185 Journal of Glaciology, 2022, pp.1-19. ⟨10.1017/jog.2022.103⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/jog.2022.103 hal-03924185 https://hal.science/hal-03924185 https://hal.science/hal-03924185/document https://hal.science/hal-03924185/file/diachronic-quantitative-snow-avalanche-risk-assessment-as-a-function-of-forest-cover-changes.pdf doi:10.1017/jog.2022.103 WOS: 000897993600001 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.103 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
19 |
_version_ |
1810453608045477888 |
spelling |
ftunigrenoble:oai:HAL:hal-03924185v1 2024-09-15T18:15:40+00:00 Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes Zgheib, Taline Giacona, Florie Morin, Samuel Granet-Abisset, Anne-Marie Favier, Philoméne Eckert, Nicolas Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches (UR ETGR (ETNA)) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Centre d'Etudes de la Neige (CEN) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG )-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Territoire, environnement, santé (LARHRA-TES) LAboratoire de Recherche Historique Rhône-Alpes - UMR5190 (LARHRA) École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 (UJML) Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 (UJML) Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne (UR LESSEM) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) - ANR-15-IDEX-02 : CDP-Trajectories frameworkin the framework of the ‘Investissements d’avenir’ program - ANR-20-Tremplin-ERC8-0001 SMARTEN program 2022-12 https://hal.science/hal-03924185 https://hal.science/hal-03924185/document https://hal.science/hal-03924185/file/diachronic-quantitative-snow-avalanche-risk-assessment-as-a-function-of-forest-cover-changes.pdf https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.103 en eng HAL CCSD International Glaciological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/jog.2022.103 hal-03924185 https://hal.science/hal-03924185 https://hal.science/hal-03924185/document https://hal.science/hal-03924185/file/diachronic-quantitative-snow-avalanche-risk-assessment-as-a-function-of-forest-cover-changes.pdf doi:10.1017/jog.2022.103 WOS: 000897993600001 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0022-1430 EISSN: 1727-5652 Journal of Glaciology https://hal.science/hal-03924185 Journal of Glaciology, 2022, pp.1-19. ⟨10.1017/jog.2022.103⟩ Avalanches glaciological natural hazards snow [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftunigrenoble https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.103 2024-07-08T23:46:07Z PII S0022143022001034 International audience This work proposes a holistic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment that evaluates, at reasonable computational costs and for various types of buildings, the impact of forest cover changes on the probability distribution of runout distances, impact pressures and subsequent risk estimates. A typical case study of the French Alps shows that, from a completely deforested to a completely forested path, avalanche risk for a building located downslope decreases by 53–99%, depending on how forest cover is accounted for in avalanche statistical–dynamical modeling. Local forest cover data inferred from old maps and photographs further demonstrates that a 20–60% risk reduction actually occurred between 1825 and 2017 at the site because of the afforestation dynamics, with significant modulations according to the considered building technology. These results (1) assert the protective role of forests against snow avalanches, (2) highlight the potential of combining nature-based solutions with traditional structural measures to reduce risk to acceptable levels at reasonable costs, (3) suggest a significant decrease in risk to settlements in areas that encountered similar forest cover changes and (4) open the door to the quantification of long-term avalanche risk changes as a function of changes of all its hazard, vulnerability and exposure drivers in various mountain context. Article in Journal/Newspaper Journal of Glaciology Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL Journal of Glaciology 1 19 |