Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet
International audience Abstract. We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional clim...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2014
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03778266 https://hal.science/hal-03778266/document https://hal.science/hal-03778266/file/tc-8-181-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 |
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Open Polar |
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Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunigrenoble |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology Edwards, T. Fettweis, X. Gagliardini, O. Gillet-Chaulet, F. Goelzer, H. Gregory, J. Hoffman, M. Huybrechts, P. Payne, A. Perego, M. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Ritz, C. Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
description |
International audience Abstract. We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB–elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77° N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four "SMB lapse rates", gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI: −0.22 to 1.33) kg m−3 a−1 for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kg m−3 a−1 for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (−0.03 to 0.23) kg m−3 a−1 in the north, and 0.07 (−0.07 to 0.59) kg m−3 a−1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically founded approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections (Edwards et al., 2014). |
author2 |
Département de Géographie Université de Liège Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) NCAS-Climate Reading Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR) University of Bristol Bristol |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Edwards, T. Fettweis, X. Gagliardini, O. Gillet-Chaulet, F. Goelzer, H. Gregory, J. Hoffman, M. Huybrechts, P. Payne, A. Perego, M. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Ritz, C. |
author_facet |
Edwards, T. Fettweis, X. Gagliardini, O. Gillet-Chaulet, F. Goelzer, H. Gregory, J. Hoffman, M. Huybrechts, P. Payne, A. Perego, M. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Ritz, C. |
author_sort |
Edwards, T. |
title |
Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_short |
Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full |
Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_fullStr |
Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_sort |
probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the greenland ice sheet |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03778266 https://hal.science/hal-03778266/document https://hal.science/hal-03778266/file/tc-8-181-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(9.642,9.642,63.170,63.170) |
geographic |
Ela Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Ela Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-03778266 The Cryosphere, 2014, 8 (1), pp.181-194. ⟨10.5194/tc-8-181-2014⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 hal-03778266 https://hal.science/hal-03778266 https://hal.science/hal-03778266/document https://hal.science/hal-03778266/file/tc-8-181-2014.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
181 |
op_container_end_page |
194 |
_version_ |
1798846800629596160 |
spelling |
ftunigrenoble:oai:HAL:hal-03778266v1 2024-05-12T08:04:35+00:00 Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet Edwards, T. Fettweis, X. Gagliardini, O. Gillet-Chaulet, F. Goelzer, H. Gregory, J. Hoffman, M. Huybrechts, P. Payne, A. Perego, M. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Ritz, C. Département de Géographie Université de Liège Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) NCAS-Climate Reading Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR) University of Bristol Bristol 2014 https://hal.science/hal-03778266 https://hal.science/hal-03778266/document https://hal.science/hal-03778266/file/tc-8-181-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 hal-03778266 https://hal.science/hal-03778266 https://hal.science/hal-03778266/document https://hal.science/hal-03778266/file/tc-8-181-2014.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-03778266 The Cryosphere, 2014, 8 (1), pp.181-194. ⟨10.5194/tc-8-181-2014⟩ [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2014 ftunigrenoble https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 2024-04-18T03:02:15Z International audience Abstract. We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB–elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77° N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four "SMB lapse rates", gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI: −0.22 to 1.33) kg m−3 a−1 for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kg m−3 a−1 for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (−0.03 to 0.23) kg m−3 a−1 in the north, and 0.07 (−0.07 to 0.59) kg m−3 a−1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically founded approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections (Edwards et al., 2014). Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL Ela ENVELOPE(9.642,9.642,63.170,63.170) Greenland The Cryosphere 8 1 181 194 |