Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F
International audience The neXtSIM-F (neXtSIM forecast) forecasting system consists of a stand-alone sea ice model, neXtSIM (neXt-generation Sea Ice Model), forced by the TOPAZ ocean forecast and the ECMWF atmospheric forecast, combined with daily data assimilation of sea ice concentration. It uses...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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ftunigrenoble:oai:HAL:hal-03405386v1 2024-05-12T07:59:43+00:00 Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F Williams, Timothy Korosov, Anton Rampal, Pierre Ólason, Einar Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen (NERSC) Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) 2021 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386/document https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386/file/Willliams2021The_Cryosphere.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 hal-03405386 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386/document https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386/file/Willliams2021The_Cryosphere.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386 The Cryosphere, 2021, 15 (7), pp.3207 - 3227. ⟨10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021⟩ [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftunigrenoble https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 2024-04-18T03:13:27Z International audience The neXtSIM-F (neXtSIM forecast) forecasting system consists of a stand-alone sea ice model, neXtSIM (neXt-generation Sea Ice Model), forced by the TOPAZ ocean forecast and the ECMWF atmospheric forecast, combined with daily data assimilation of sea ice concentration. It uses the novel brittle Bingham-Maxwell (BBM) sea ice rheology, making it the first forecast based on a continuum model not to use the viscous-plastic (VP) rheology. It was tested in the Arctic for the time period November 2018-June 2020 and was found to perform well, although there are some shortcomings. Despite drift not being assimilated in our system, the sea ice drift is good throughout the year, being relatively unbiased, even for longer lead times like 5 d. The RMSE in speed and the total RMSE are also good for the first 3 or so days, although they both increase steadily with lead time. The thickness distribution is relatively good, although there are some regions that experience excessive thickening with negative implications for the summertime sea ice extent, particularly in the Greenland Sea. The neXtSIM-F forecasting system assimilates OSI SAF sea ice concentration products (both SSMIS and AMSR2) by modifying the initial conditions daily and adding a compensating heat flux to prevent removed ice growing back too quickly. The assimilation greatly improves the sea ice extent for the forecast duration. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL Arctic Bingham ENVELOPE(-63.400,-63.400,-69.400,-69.400) Greenland The Cryosphere 15 7 3207 3227 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunigrenoble |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography Williams, Timothy Korosov, Anton Rampal, Pierre Ólason, Einar Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
description |
International audience The neXtSIM-F (neXtSIM forecast) forecasting system consists of a stand-alone sea ice model, neXtSIM (neXt-generation Sea Ice Model), forced by the TOPAZ ocean forecast and the ECMWF atmospheric forecast, combined with daily data assimilation of sea ice concentration. It uses the novel brittle Bingham-Maxwell (BBM) sea ice rheology, making it the first forecast based on a continuum model not to use the viscous-plastic (VP) rheology. It was tested in the Arctic for the time period November 2018-June 2020 and was found to perform well, although there are some shortcomings. Despite drift not being assimilated in our system, the sea ice drift is good throughout the year, being relatively unbiased, even for longer lead times like 5 d. The RMSE in speed and the total RMSE are also good for the first 3 or so days, although they both increase steadily with lead time. The thickness distribution is relatively good, although there are some regions that experience excessive thickening with negative implications for the summertime sea ice extent, particularly in the Greenland Sea. The neXtSIM-F forecasting system assimilates OSI SAF sea ice concentration products (both SSMIS and AMSR2) by modifying the initial conditions daily and adding a compensating heat flux to prevent removed ice growing back too quickly. The assimilation greatly improves the sea ice extent for the forecast duration. |
author2 |
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen (NERSC) Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Williams, Timothy Korosov, Anton Rampal, Pierre Ólason, Einar |
author_facet |
Williams, Timothy Korosov, Anton Rampal, Pierre Ólason, Einar |
author_sort |
Williams, Timothy |
title |
Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F |
title_short |
Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F |
title_full |
Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F |
title_fullStr |
Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F |
title_full_unstemmed |
Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F |
title_sort |
presentation and evaluation of the arctic sea ice forecasting system nextsim-f |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386/document https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386/file/Willliams2021The_Cryosphere.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-63.400,-63.400,-69.400,-69.400) |
geographic |
Arctic Bingham Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Bingham Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386 The Cryosphere, 2021, 15 (7), pp.3207 - 3227. ⟨10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 hal-03405386 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386 https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386/document https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-03405386/file/Willliams2021The_Cryosphere.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
3207 |
op_container_end_page |
3227 |
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