Chaotic Variability of Ocean: Heat Content Climate-Relevant Features and Observational Implications

• Published in: Oceanography
• Main Authors: Penduff, Thierry, Sérazin, Guillaume, Leroux, Stephanie, Close, Sally, Molines, Jean-Marc, Barnier, Bernard, Bessières, Laurent, Terray, Laurent, Maze, Guillaume
• Other Authors: Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 )-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (Fédération OSUG), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (SIO), Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow (RAS), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ANR-13-BS06-0007,OCCIPUT,Chaos océanique – Impacts, structure, prévisibilité(2013)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: CCSD 2018
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03003501; https://hal.science/hal-03003501v1/document; https://hal.science/hal-03003501v1/file/31-2_penduff.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.210

International audience Global ocean models that admit mesoscale turbulence spontaneously generate a substantial interannual-to-multidecadal chaotic intrinsic variability in the absence of atmospheric forcing variability at these timescales. This phenomenon is substantially weaker in non-turbulent ocean models but provides a marked stochastic flavor to the low-frequency variability in eddying ocean models, which are being coupled to the atmosphere for next-generation climate projections. In order to disentangle the atmospherically forced and intrinsic ocean variabilities, the OCCIPUT (OceaniC Chaos – ImPacts, strUcture, predicTability) project performed a long (1960–2015), large ensemble (50 members) of global ocean/sea ice 1/4° simulations driven by the same atmospheric reanalysis, but with perturbed initial conditions. Subsequent ensemble statistics show that the ocean variability can be seen as a broadband “noise,” with characteristic scales reaching multiple decades and basin sizes, locally modulated by the atmospheric variability. In several mid-latitude regions, chaotic processes have more impact than atmospheric variability on both the low-frequency variability and the long-term trends of regional ocean heat content. Consequently, certain climate-relevant oceanic signals cannot be unambiguously attributed to atmospheric variability, raising new issues for the detection, attribution, and interpretation of oceanic heat variability and trends in the presence of mesoscale turbulence.