Projections of the future disappearance of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Central Andes
International audience We analyze the future state of Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC), the world's largest tropical ice cap with a summit elevation of 5680 m a.s.l., which, in terms of its elevation range (~5300-5680 m a.s.l.), is representative of many low-elevation glacierized sites in the tropical A...
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-01901754 https://hal.science/hal-01901754/document https://hal.science/hal-01901754/file/Yarleque2018NatureSR.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-33698-z |
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ftunigrenoble:oai:HAL:hal-01901754v1 2024-05-19T07:41:56+00:00 Projections of the future disappearance of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Central Andes Yarleque, Christian Vuille, Mathias Hardy, Douglas, R Timm, Oliver, Elison de La Cruz, Jorge Ramos, Hugo Rabatel, Antoine State University of New York (SUNY) University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMass Amherst) University of Massachusetts System (UMASS) Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina (UNALM) Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) 2018 https://hal.science/hal-01901754 https://hal.science/hal-01901754/document https://hal.science/hal-01901754/file/Yarleque2018NatureSR.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-33698-z en eng HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-018-33698-z hal-01901754 https://hal.science/hal-01901754 https://hal.science/hal-01901754/document https://hal.science/hal-01901754/file/Yarleque2018NatureSR.pdf doi:10.1038/s41598-018-33698-z info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2045-2322 EISSN: 2045-2322 Scientific Reports https://hal.science/hal-01901754 Scientific Reports, 2018, 8 (1), pp.15564. ⟨10.1038/s41598-018-33698-z⟩ [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftunigrenoble https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-33698-z 2024-04-25T00:36:45Z International audience We analyze the future state of Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC), the world's largest tropical ice cap with a summit elevation of 5680 m a.s.l., which, in terms of its elevation range (~5300-5680 m a.s.l.), is representative of many low-elevation glacierized sites in the tropical Andes. CMIP5 model projections of air temperature (Ta) at QIC indicate a warming of about 2.4 °C and 5.4 °C (respectively) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the end of the 21 st century, resulting in a pronounced increase in freezing level height (FLH). The impact of this warming on the QIC was quantified using equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) projections. The change in the ELA was quantified based on an empirical ELA-FLH relationship, and calibrated with observations of the highest annual snowline altitude (SLA) derived from LANDSAT data. Results show that from the mid-2050s onwards, the ELA will be located above the QIC summit in the RCP8.5 scenario. At that time, surface mass balance at QIC and most tropical glaciers at similar elevations will become increasingly negative, leading to their eventual complete disappearance. Our analysis further corroborates that elevation-dependent warming (EDW) contributes significantly to the enhanced warming over the QIC, and that EDW at Quelccaya depends on the rate of anthropogenic forcing. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice cap Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL Scientific Reports 8 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunigrenoble |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Yarleque, Christian Vuille, Mathias Hardy, Douglas, R Timm, Oliver, Elison de La Cruz, Jorge Ramos, Hugo Rabatel, Antoine Projections of the future disappearance of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Central Andes |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience We analyze the future state of Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC), the world's largest tropical ice cap with a summit elevation of 5680 m a.s.l., which, in terms of its elevation range (~5300-5680 m a.s.l.), is representative of many low-elevation glacierized sites in the tropical Andes. CMIP5 model projections of air temperature (Ta) at QIC indicate a warming of about 2.4 °C and 5.4 °C (respectively) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the end of the 21 st century, resulting in a pronounced increase in freezing level height (FLH). The impact of this warming on the QIC was quantified using equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) projections. The change in the ELA was quantified based on an empirical ELA-FLH relationship, and calibrated with observations of the highest annual snowline altitude (SLA) derived from LANDSAT data. Results show that from the mid-2050s onwards, the ELA will be located above the QIC summit in the RCP8.5 scenario. At that time, surface mass balance at QIC and most tropical glaciers at similar elevations will become increasingly negative, leading to their eventual complete disappearance. Our analysis further corroborates that elevation-dependent warming (EDW) contributes significantly to the enhanced warming over the QIC, and that EDW at Quelccaya depends on the rate of anthropogenic forcing. |
author2 |
State University of New York (SUNY) University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMass Amherst) University of Massachusetts System (UMASS) Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina (UNALM) Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yarleque, Christian Vuille, Mathias Hardy, Douglas, R Timm, Oliver, Elison de La Cruz, Jorge Ramos, Hugo Rabatel, Antoine |
author_facet |
Yarleque, Christian Vuille, Mathias Hardy, Douglas, R Timm, Oliver, Elison de La Cruz, Jorge Ramos, Hugo Rabatel, Antoine |
author_sort |
Yarleque, Christian |
title |
Projections of the future disappearance of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Central Andes |
title_short |
Projections of the future disappearance of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Central Andes |
title_full |
Projections of the future disappearance of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Central Andes |
title_fullStr |
Projections of the future disappearance of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Central Andes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projections of the future disappearance of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Central Andes |
title_sort |
projections of the future disappearance of the quelccaya ice cap in the central andes |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01901754 https://hal.science/hal-01901754/document https://hal.science/hal-01901754/file/Yarleque2018NatureSR.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-33698-z |
genre |
Ice cap |
genre_facet |
Ice cap |
op_source |
ISSN: 2045-2322 EISSN: 2045-2322 Scientific Reports https://hal.science/hal-01901754 Scientific Reports, 2018, 8 (1), pp.15564. ⟨10.1038/s41598-018-33698-z⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-018-33698-z hal-01901754 https://hal.science/hal-01901754 https://hal.science/hal-01901754/document https://hal.science/hal-01901754/file/Yarleque2018NatureSR.pdf doi:10.1038/s41598-018-33698-z |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-33698-z |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1799481541657624576 |