Permafrost Favorability Index: Spatial Modeling in the French Alps Using a Rock Glacier Inventory
International audience In the present study we used the first rock glacier inventory for the entire French Alpsto model spatial permafrost distribution in the region. Climatic and topographic dataevaluated at the rock glacier locations were used as predictor variables in a GeneralizedLinearModel.Mod...
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ftunigrenoble:oai:HAL:hal-01880559v1 2024-05-19T07:46:57+00:00 Permafrost Favorability Index: Spatial Modeling in the French Alps Using a Rock Glacier Inventory Marcer, Marco Bodin, Xavier Brenning, Alexander Schoeneich, Philippe Charvet, Raphaële Gottardi, Frédéric Environnements, Dynamiques et Territoires de Montagne (EDYTEM) Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Department of Geography and Environmental Management Waterloo University of Waterloo Waterloo Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales (PACTE) Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) 2017-12-15 https://sde.hal.science/hal-01880559 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00105 en eng HAL CCSD Frontiers Media info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3389/feart.2017.00105 hal-01880559 https://sde.hal.science/hal-01880559 doi:10.3389/feart.2017.00105 ISSN: 2296-6463 Frontiers in Earth Science https://sde.hal.science/hal-01880559 Frontiers in Earth Science, 2017, 5, pp.1-17. ⟨10.3389/feart.2017.00105⟩ rock glaciers mountain permafrost statistical modeling permafrost modeling French Alps [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2017 ftunigrenoble https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00105 2024-05-02T00:37:29Z International audience In the present study we used the first rock glacier inventory for the entire French Alpsto model spatial permafrost distribution in the region. Climatic and topographic dataevaluated at the rock glacier locations were used as predictor variables in a GeneralizedLinearModel.Model performances are strong, suggesting that, in agreement with severalprevious studies, this methodology is able to model accurately rock glacier distribution. Amethodology to estimate model uncertainties is proposed, revealing that the subjectivityin the interpretation of rock glacier activity and contours may substantially bias the model.Themodel highlights a North-South trend in the regional pattern of permafrost distributionwhich is attributed to the climatic influences of the Atlantic and Mediterranean climates.Further analysis suggest that lower amounts of precipitation in the early winter and athinner snow cover, as typically found in the Mediterranean area, could contribute tothe existence of permafrost at higher temperatures compared to the Northern Alps. Acomparison with the Alpine Permafrost Index Map (APIM) shows no major differenceswith our model, highlighting the very good predictive power of the APIM despite itstendency to slightly overestimate permafrost extension with respect to our database. Theuse of rock glaciers as indicators of permafrost existence despite their time response toclimate change is discussed and an interpretation key is proposed in order to ensure theproper use of the model for research as well as for operational purposes. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL Frontiers in Earth Science 5 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunigrenoble |
language |
English |
topic |
rock glaciers mountain permafrost statistical modeling permafrost modeling French Alps [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography |
spellingShingle |
rock glaciers mountain permafrost statistical modeling permafrost modeling French Alps [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography Marcer, Marco Bodin, Xavier Brenning, Alexander Schoeneich, Philippe Charvet, Raphaële Gottardi, Frédéric Permafrost Favorability Index: Spatial Modeling in the French Alps Using a Rock Glacier Inventory |
topic_facet |
rock glaciers mountain permafrost statistical modeling permafrost modeling French Alps [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography |
description |
International audience In the present study we used the first rock glacier inventory for the entire French Alpsto model spatial permafrost distribution in the region. Climatic and topographic dataevaluated at the rock glacier locations were used as predictor variables in a GeneralizedLinearModel.Model performances are strong, suggesting that, in agreement with severalprevious studies, this methodology is able to model accurately rock glacier distribution. Amethodology to estimate model uncertainties is proposed, revealing that the subjectivityin the interpretation of rock glacier activity and contours may substantially bias the model.Themodel highlights a North-South trend in the regional pattern of permafrost distributionwhich is attributed to the climatic influences of the Atlantic and Mediterranean climates.Further analysis suggest that lower amounts of precipitation in the early winter and athinner snow cover, as typically found in the Mediterranean area, could contribute tothe existence of permafrost at higher temperatures compared to the Northern Alps. Acomparison with the Alpine Permafrost Index Map (APIM) shows no major differenceswith our model, highlighting the very good predictive power of the APIM despite itstendency to slightly overestimate permafrost extension with respect to our database. Theuse of rock glaciers as indicators of permafrost existence despite their time response toclimate change is discussed and an interpretation key is proposed in order to ensure theproper use of the model for research as well as for operational purposes. |
author2 |
Environnements, Dynamiques et Territoires de Montagne (EDYTEM) Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Department of Geography and Environmental Management Waterloo University of Waterloo Waterloo Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales (PACTE) Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marcer, Marco Bodin, Xavier Brenning, Alexander Schoeneich, Philippe Charvet, Raphaële Gottardi, Frédéric |
author_facet |
Marcer, Marco Bodin, Xavier Brenning, Alexander Schoeneich, Philippe Charvet, Raphaële Gottardi, Frédéric |
author_sort |
Marcer, Marco |
title |
Permafrost Favorability Index: Spatial Modeling in the French Alps Using a Rock Glacier Inventory |
title_short |
Permafrost Favorability Index: Spatial Modeling in the French Alps Using a Rock Glacier Inventory |
title_full |
Permafrost Favorability Index: Spatial Modeling in the French Alps Using a Rock Glacier Inventory |
title_fullStr |
Permafrost Favorability Index: Spatial Modeling in the French Alps Using a Rock Glacier Inventory |
title_full_unstemmed |
Permafrost Favorability Index: Spatial Modeling in the French Alps Using a Rock Glacier Inventory |
title_sort |
permafrost favorability index: spatial modeling in the french alps using a rock glacier inventory |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://sde.hal.science/hal-01880559 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00105 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
ISSN: 2296-6463 Frontiers in Earth Science https://sde.hal.science/hal-01880559 Frontiers in Earth Science, 2017, 5, pp.1-17. ⟨10.3389/feart.2017.00105⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3389/feart.2017.00105 hal-01880559 https://sde.hal.science/hal-01880559 doi:10.3389/feart.2017.00105 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00105 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Earth Science |
container_volume |
5 |
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1799487208813494272 |