Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution
Population viability analyses (PVA) are now routinely used during the consenting process for offshore wind energy developments to assess potential impacts to vulnerable species, such as seabirds. These models are typically based on mean vital rates, such as survival and fecundity, with some level of...
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ftunigloucesters:oai::10853 2023-05-15T15:44:57+02:00 Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution Horswill, Catharine Miller, Julie A. O. Wood, Matt J. 2022-04-12 text https://eprints.glos.ac.uk/10853/ https://eprints.glos.ac.uk/10853/1/10853-Reed-%282022%29-Impact-assessments-of-wind-farms-on-seabird-populations-that-overlook-existing-drivers.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12644 en eng Wiley https://eprints.glos.ac.uk/10853/1/10853-Reed-%282022%29-Impact-assessments-of-wind-farms-on-seabird-populations-that-overlook-existing-drivers.pdf Horswill, Catharine, Miller, Julie A. O. and Wood, Matt J. orcid:0000-0003-0920-8396 (2022) Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution. Conservation Science and Practice, 4 (4). e12644. doi:10.1111/csp2.12644 <https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12644> doi:10.1111/csp2.12644 cc_by_4 CC-BY QL671-699 Birds Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftunigloucesters https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12644 2022-04-14T22:39:24Z Population viability analyses (PVA) are now routinely used during the consenting process for offshore wind energy developments to assess potential impacts to vulnerable species, such as seabirds. These models are typically based on mean vital rates, such as survival and fecundity, with some level of environmental stochasticity (i.e., temporal variation). However, many species of sea-bird are experiencing population decline due to temporal (i.e., directional) trends in their vital rates. We assess the prevalence of temporal trends in rates of fecundity for a sentinel species of seabird, the black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, and examine how accounting for these relationships affects the predictive accuracy of PVA, as well as the projected population response to an extrinsic threat. We found that temporal trends in kittiwake rates of fecundity are widespread, and that including these trends in PVA assessments dramatically influences the projected rate of population decline. We advocate that model validation become a pre-requisite step in seabird PVA assessments to identify potential biases influencing the projected population response. We also argue that environmental factors driving current population dynamics need to be incorporated in PVA impact assessments as potential “worst-case” scenarios. These findings have immediate application for improving and reducing uncertainty in impact assessments conducted as part of the consenting process for offshore wind energy developments. Article in Journal/Newspaper Black-legged Kittiwake rissa tridactyla University of Gloucestershire: Research Repository Conservation Science and Practice |
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Open Polar |
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University of Gloucestershire: Research Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunigloucesters |
language |
English |
topic |
QL671-699 Birds |
spellingShingle |
QL671-699 Birds Horswill, Catharine Miller, Julie A. O. Wood, Matt J. Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
topic_facet |
QL671-699 Birds |
description |
Population viability analyses (PVA) are now routinely used during the consenting process for offshore wind energy developments to assess potential impacts to vulnerable species, such as seabirds. These models are typically based on mean vital rates, such as survival and fecundity, with some level of environmental stochasticity (i.e., temporal variation). However, many species of sea-bird are experiencing population decline due to temporal (i.e., directional) trends in their vital rates. We assess the prevalence of temporal trends in rates of fecundity for a sentinel species of seabird, the black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, and examine how accounting for these relationships affects the predictive accuracy of PVA, as well as the projected population response to an extrinsic threat. We found that temporal trends in kittiwake rates of fecundity are widespread, and that including these trends in PVA assessments dramatically influences the projected rate of population decline. We advocate that model validation become a pre-requisite step in seabird PVA assessments to identify potential biases influencing the projected population response. We also argue that environmental factors driving current population dynamics need to be incorporated in PVA impact assessments as potential “worst-case” scenarios. These findings have immediate application for improving and reducing uncertainty in impact assessments conducted as part of the consenting process for offshore wind energy developments. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Horswill, Catharine Miller, Julie A. O. Wood, Matt J. |
author_facet |
Horswill, Catharine Miller, Julie A. O. Wood, Matt J. |
author_sort |
Horswill, Catharine |
title |
Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
title_short |
Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
title_full |
Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
title_fullStr |
Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
title_sort |
impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://eprints.glos.ac.uk/10853/ https://eprints.glos.ac.uk/10853/1/10853-Reed-%282022%29-Impact-assessments-of-wind-farms-on-seabird-populations-that-overlook-existing-drivers.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12644 |
genre |
Black-legged Kittiwake rissa tridactyla |
genre_facet |
Black-legged Kittiwake rissa tridactyla |
op_relation |
https://eprints.glos.ac.uk/10853/1/10853-Reed-%282022%29-Impact-assessments-of-wind-farms-on-seabird-populations-that-overlook-existing-drivers.pdf Horswill, Catharine, Miller, Julie A. O. and Wood, Matt J. orcid:0000-0003-0920-8396 (2022) Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution. Conservation Science and Practice, 4 (4). e12644. doi:10.1111/csp2.12644 <https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12644> doi:10.1111/csp2.12644 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12644 |
container_title |
Conservation Science and Practice |
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1766379309442793472 |