Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change
International audience Mountains are a sensitive indicator of climate change and these areas are an early glimpse of whatcould happen in lowland environments. Peaking at 4808 m asl, the Mont-Blanc summit, at the boundarybetween France and Italy, is the highest of the Alps, in Western Europe. Its Mas...
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-02074047 https://hal.science/hal-02074047/document https://hal.science/hal-02074047/file/2019_Pohl_Joly%20et%20al.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5 |
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ftunifranchecom:oai:HAL:hal-02074047v1 2024-01-14T10:09:54+01:00 Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change Pohl, Benjamin Joly, Daniel Pergaud, Julien Buoncristiani, Jean-François Soare, Paul Berger, Alexandre Biogéosciences UMR 6282 (BGS) Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Théoriser et modéliser pour aménager (UMR 6049) (ThéMA) Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC) Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté COMUE (UBFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté COMUE (UBFC) ANR-14-CE03-0006,VIP-Mont-Blanc,VItesses des Processus contrôlant les évolutions morphologiques et environnementales du massif du Mont Blanc(2014) 2019-12 https://hal.science/hal-02074047 https://hal.science/hal-02074047/document https://hal.science/hal-02074047/file/2019_Pohl_Joly%20et%20al.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5 en eng HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5 hal-02074047 https://hal.science/hal-02074047 https://hal.science/hal-02074047/document https://hal.science/hal-02074047/file/2019_Pohl_Joly%20et%20al.pdf doi:10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2045-2322 EISSN: 2045-2322 Scientific Reports https://hal.science/hal-02074047 Scientific Reports, 2019, 9 (1), pp.4919. ⟨10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5⟩ [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2019 ftunifranchecom https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5 2023-12-19T23:33:44Z International audience Mountains are a sensitive indicator of climate change and these areas are an early glimpse of whatcould happen in lowland environments. Peaking at 4808 m asl, the Mont-Blanc summit, at the boundarybetween France and Italy, is the highest of the Alps, in Western Europe. Its Massif is world-famous foroutdoor and extreme sport activities, especially since the 1924 Olympic games held in Chamonix. Here,we use a novel statistical downscaling approach to regionalize current and future climate change overthe Mont-Blanc Massif at an unequalled spatial resolution of 200 m. The algorithm is applied to dailyminimum and maximum temperature derived from global climate models used in the fifth assessmentreport of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This new high-resolution database allowsfor a precise quantification of frost occurrence and its evolution until 2100. In the winter season andby the end of the 21st century, under a pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), frost frequency in the morningcould decrease by 30–35 percentage points in the valley of Chamonix, and in the afternoon, similarchanges could occur for elevations comprised between 2000 and 3000 m. In summertime, changesare even larger, reaching a huge drop of 45–50 points in the afternoon between 3500 and 4500 m.These changes are much reduced under an optimistic scenario. They could have huge impacts on theenvironment (glacier shrinking, permafrost degradation, floods, changes in the distribution of speciesand ecosystems) and societies (summer tourism for climbing and hiking, and winter tourism for skiing). Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Université de Franche-Comté (UFC): HAL Mont Blanc ENVELOPE(69.468,69.468,-49.461,-49.461) Scientific Reports 9 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Université de Franche-Comté (UFC): HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunifranchecom |
language |
English |
topic |
[SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
[SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Pohl, Benjamin Joly, Daniel Pergaud, Julien Buoncristiani, Jean-François Soare, Paul Berger, Alexandre Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change |
topic_facet |
[SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
description |
International audience Mountains are a sensitive indicator of climate change and these areas are an early glimpse of whatcould happen in lowland environments. Peaking at 4808 m asl, the Mont-Blanc summit, at the boundarybetween France and Italy, is the highest of the Alps, in Western Europe. Its Massif is world-famous foroutdoor and extreme sport activities, especially since the 1924 Olympic games held in Chamonix. Here,we use a novel statistical downscaling approach to regionalize current and future climate change overthe Mont-Blanc Massif at an unequalled spatial resolution of 200 m. The algorithm is applied to dailyminimum and maximum temperature derived from global climate models used in the fifth assessmentreport of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This new high-resolution database allowsfor a precise quantification of frost occurrence and its evolution until 2100. In the winter season andby the end of the 21st century, under a pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), frost frequency in the morningcould decrease by 30–35 percentage points in the valley of Chamonix, and in the afternoon, similarchanges could occur for elevations comprised between 2000 and 3000 m. In summertime, changesare even larger, reaching a huge drop of 45–50 points in the afternoon between 3500 and 4500 m.These changes are much reduced under an optimistic scenario. They could have huge impacts on theenvironment (glacier shrinking, permafrost degradation, floods, changes in the distribution of speciesand ecosystems) and societies (summer tourism for climbing and hiking, and winter tourism for skiing). |
author2 |
Biogéosciences UMR 6282 (BGS) Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Théoriser et modéliser pour aménager (UMR 6049) (ThéMA) Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC) Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté COMUE (UBFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté COMUE (UBFC) ANR-14-CE03-0006,VIP-Mont-Blanc,VItesses des Processus contrôlant les évolutions morphologiques et environnementales du massif du Mont Blanc(2014) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pohl, Benjamin Joly, Daniel Pergaud, Julien Buoncristiani, Jean-François Soare, Paul Berger, Alexandre |
author_facet |
Pohl, Benjamin Joly, Daniel Pergaud, Julien Buoncristiani, Jean-François Soare, Paul Berger, Alexandre |
author_sort |
Pohl, Benjamin |
title |
Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change |
title_short |
Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change |
title_full |
Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change |
title_fullStr |
Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change |
title_sort |
huge decrease of frost frequency in the mont-blanc massif under climate change |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02074047 https://hal.science/hal-02074047/document https://hal.science/hal-02074047/file/2019_Pohl_Joly%20et%20al.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(69.468,69.468,-49.461,-49.461) |
geographic |
Mont Blanc |
geographic_facet |
Mont Blanc |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
ISSN: 2045-2322 EISSN: 2045-2322 Scientific Reports https://hal.science/hal-02074047 Scientific Reports, 2019, 9 (1), pp.4919. ⟨10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5 hal-02074047 https://hal.science/hal-02074047 https://hal.science/hal-02074047/document https://hal.science/hal-02074047/file/2019_Pohl_Joly%20et%20al.pdf doi:10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1788064490913267712 |