Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures
The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 degrees C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulatio...
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ftunicolboulder:oai:scholar.colorado.edu:atoc_facpapers-1027 2023-05-15T15:12:45+02:00 Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures Sanderson, Benjamin M. Xu, Yangyang Tebaldi, Claudia Wehner, Michael O'Neill, Brian Jahn, Alexandra Pendergrass, Angeline G. Lehner, Flavio Strand, Warren G. Lamarque, Jean Francois Knutti, Reto 2017-01-01T08:00:00Z application/pdf https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_facpapers/21 https://scholar.colorado.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1027&context=atoc_facpapers unknown CU Scholar https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_facpapers/21 https://scholar.colorado.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1027&context=atoc_facpapers http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ CC-BY Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences Faculty Contributions text 2017 ftunicolboulder 2018-10-07T09:09:56Z The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 degrees C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. In this study, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 degrees C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 and 2 degrees C levels and an overshoot 1.5 degrees C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. Here we describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60% greater frequency in the 2 degrees C climate than in a 1.5 degrees C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 degrees C climate than a 1.5 degrees C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 degrees C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 degrees C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed. Text Arctic University of Colorado, Boulder: CU Scholar Arctic |
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The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 degrees C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. In this study, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 degrees C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 and 2 degrees C levels and an overshoot 1.5 degrees C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. Here we describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60% greater frequency in the 2 degrees C climate than in a 1.5 degrees C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 degrees C climate than a 1.5 degrees C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 degrees C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 degrees C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed. |
format |
Text |
author |
Sanderson, Benjamin M. Xu, Yangyang Tebaldi, Claudia Wehner, Michael O'Neill, Brian Jahn, Alexandra Pendergrass, Angeline G. Lehner, Flavio Strand, Warren G. Lamarque, Jean Francois Knutti, Reto |
spellingShingle |
Sanderson, Benjamin M. Xu, Yangyang Tebaldi, Claudia Wehner, Michael O'Neill, Brian Jahn, Alexandra Pendergrass, Angeline G. Lehner, Flavio Strand, Warren G. Lamarque, Jean Francois Knutti, Reto Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures |
author_facet |
Sanderson, Benjamin M. Xu, Yangyang Tebaldi, Claudia Wehner, Michael O'Neill, Brian Jahn, Alexandra Pendergrass, Angeline G. Lehner, Flavio Strand, Warren G. Lamarque, Jean Francois Knutti, Reto |
author_sort |
Sanderson, Benjamin M. |
title |
Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures |
title_short |
Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures |
title_full |
Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures |
title_fullStr |
Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures |
title_full_unstemmed |
Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures |
title_sort |
community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees c futures |
publisher |
CU Scholar |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_facpapers/21 https://scholar.colorado.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1027&context=atoc_facpapers |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences Faculty Contributions |
op_relation |
https://scholar.colorado.edu/atoc_facpapers/21 https://scholar.colorado.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1027&context=atoc_facpapers |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
_version_ |
1766343399276806144 |