A proposal for a basis to consider future island closures, taking account especially of the current results from the island closure experiment
This document provides proposals for a basis to consider future island closures, first taking account of the results to date for estimates of the impact of closure parameter δ from the island closure experiment obtained using the 2016 Panel algorithm. A pragmatic approach is adopted, given difficult...
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ftunicapetownfig:oai:figshare.com:article/13669646 2024-09-15T18:29:15+00:00 A proposal for a basis to consider future island closures, taking account especially of the current results from the island closure experiment Doug Butterworth 2021-02-05T10:45:08Z https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.13669646.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/report/A_proposal_for_a_basis_to_consider_future_island_closures_taking_account_especially_of_the_current_results_from_the_island_closure_experiment/13669646 unknown doi:10.25375/uct.13669646.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/report/A_proposal_for_a_basis_to_consider_future_island_closures_taking_account_especially_of_the_current_results_from_the_island_closure_experiment/13669646 CC BY 4.0 Biological mathematics Applied statistics Biostatistics penguin island closure experiment future analyses island closures penguin 2016 International Stock Assessment Workshop Text Report 2021 ftunicapetownfig https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.13669646.v1 2024-06-27T05:23:39Z This document provides proposals for a basis to consider future island closures, first taking account of the results to date for estimates of the impact of closure parameter δ from the island closure experiment obtained using the 2016 Panel algorithm. A pragmatic approach is adopted, given difficulties arising from outstanding matters of interpretation of the input data, which require further discussion. In essence, based only on the indications (which currently remain unclear) of whether or not biologically meaningful effects of closure on the penguin populations concerned have been demonstrated, suggestions are made to open Dassen island, to increase the relative frequency of closures at Robben island, and to maintain the current experimental closure schedule at St Croix and Bird islands with a possible increase in closure frequency at the former and decrease at the latter. In this situation, with important aspects of uncertainty still remaining concerning whether and to what extent closures might benefit penguins, final decisions will need to be based on trade-offs. These need to be quantified to the extent possible; they relate to the potential benefits to the penguins and the losses to the fishing industry in terms of financial returns and employment under different future closure proposals. The PWG will need to provide a summary of those benefits and losses, and some suggestions are made in that regard. Furthermore, continuation of the experiment in some form so as to better estimate closure impact parameter values obviously requires continuation of monitoring of at least some of the penguin response variables considered to date at all four islands; hence, plans to do so need to be confirmed. Report Penguin Island University of Cape Town: Figshare |
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University of Cape Town: Figshare |
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ftunicapetownfig |
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Biological mathematics Applied statistics Biostatistics penguin island closure experiment future analyses island closures penguin 2016 International Stock Assessment Workshop |
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Biological mathematics Applied statistics Biostatistics penguin island closure experiment future analyses island closures penguin 2016 International Stock Assessment Workshop Doug Butterworth A proposal for a basis to consider future island closures, taking account especially of the current results from the island closure experiment |
topic_facet |
Biological mathematics Applied statistics Biostatistics penguin island closure experiment future analyses island closures penguin 2016 International Stock Assessment Workshop |
description |
This document provides proposals for a basis to consider future island closures, first taking account of the results to date for estimates of the impact of closure parameter δ from the island closure experiment obtained using the 2016 Panel algorithm. A pragmatic approach is adopted, given difficulties arising from outstanding matters of interpretation of the input data, which require further discussion. In essence, based only on the indications (which currently remain unclear) of whether or not biologically meaningful effects of closure on the penguin populations concerned have been demonstrated, suggestions are made to open Dassen island, to increase the relative frequency of closures at Robben island, and to maintain the current experimental closure schedule at St Croix and Bird islands with a possible increase in closure frequency at the former and decrease at the latter. In this situation, with important aspects of uncertainty still remaining concerning whether and to what extent closures might benefit penguins, final decisions will need to be based on trade-offs. These need to be quantified to the extent possible; they relate to the potential benefits to the penguins and the losses to the fishing industry in terms of financial returns and employment under different future closure proposals. The PWG will need to provide a summary of those benefits and losses, and some suggestions are made in that regard. Furthermore, continuation of the experiment in some form so as to better estimate closure impact parameter values obviously requires continuation of monitoring of at least some of the penguin response variables considered to date at all four islands; hence, plans to do so need to be confirmed. |
format |
Report |
author |
Doug Butterworth |
author_facet |
Doug Butterworth |
author_sort |
Doug Butterworth |
title |
A proposal for a basis to consider future island closures, taking account especially of the current results from the island closure experiment |
title_short |
A proposal for a basis to consider future island closures, taking account especially of the current results from the island closure experiment |
title_full |
A proposal for a basis to consider future island closures, taking account especially of the current results from the island closure experiment |
title_fullStr |
A proposal for a basis to consider future island closures, taking account especially of the current results from the island closure experiment |
title_full_unstemmed |
A proposal for a basis to consider future island closures, taking account especially of the current results from the island closure experiment |
title_sort |
proposal for a basis to consider future island closures, taking account especially of the current results from the island closure experiment |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.13669646.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/report/A_proposal_for_a_basis_to_consider_future_island_closures_taking_account_especially_of_the_current_results_from_the_island_closure_experiment/13669646 |
genre |
Penguin Island |
genre_facet |
Penguin Island |
op_relation |
doi:10.25375/uct.13669646.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/report/A_proposal_for_a_basis_to_consider_future_island_closures_taking_account_especially_of_the_current_results_from_the_island_closure_experiment/13669646 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.13669646.v1 |
_version_ |
1810470660653187072 |