Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble
We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss ho...
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ftunibueairesbd:paper:paper_01650009_v98_n3_p359_Menendez 2023-05-15T13:42:26+02:00 Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble 2010 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p359_Menendez https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p359_Menendez unknown https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p359_Menendez http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p359_Menendez Anthropogenic climate change] Banded structures Dry spells Extratropics Frost days Future climate Midlatitudes Multi-model ensemble Non-uniform distribution Patagonia Potential change Precipitation intensity Ross Sea South America Southern Annular Mode Southern Ocean Subtropical anticyclone Temperature index Atmospheric pressure Drought Gas fuel analysis Global warming Greenhouse gases Oceanography Climate models anthropogenic effect anticyclone climate change climate modeling ensemble forecasting greenhouse gas Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature effect temporal period Bellingshausen Sea 2010 ftunibueairesbd https://doi.org/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p359_Menendez 2023-02-16T01:59:41Z We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss how the anthropogenic climate change under A1B scenario influences both the patterns of mean change of extreme indices and the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme indices. The likelihood of occurrence of a year with a large number of days with "warm" minimum temperatures is estimated to increase by a factor of 4 by the end of this century over most of the southern extratropics. By that time, the risk of "severe" precipitation intensity is projected to rise in most areas with the exception of the subtropical anticyclones, which experience particularly strong drying. Over the Southern Ocean this likelihood has increased to over 60%. Corresponding estimates of the changing likelihood for very long dry spells show a banded structure with positive ratios to the north of about 50° S and negative ratios in the sub Antarctic seas. In southern South America this risk about doubled between present and future climates. Then, we explore if the Southern Annular Mode influences the occurrence of severe extreme indices during the period 2070-2099. Its positive phase inhibits the extremely warm minimum temperatures in the Southern Ocean, with the exception of the eastern Bellingshausen Sea, and favors severe frost days to the north of the Ross Sea. Temperature indices show very little change induced by the SAM to the north of 50° S. Severe dry spells are inhibited during the positive phase along the sub Antarctic seas, while the mid-latitudes, including most of Patagonia, show the opposite behaviour. The Southern Ocean reveals a non-uniform distribution with both increases and decreases in the occurrence of heavier precipitation during positive SAM. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009. Other/Unknown Material Antarc* Antarctic Bellingshausen Sea Ross Sea Southern Ocean Biblioteca Digital FCEN-UBA (Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires) Antarctic Bellingshausen Sea Patagonia Ross Sea Southern Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Biblioteca Digital FCEN-UBA (Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires) |
op_collection_id |
ftunibueairesbd |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Anthropogenic climate change] Banded structures Dry spells Extratropics Frost days Future climate Midlatitudes Multi-model ensemble Non-uniform distribution Patagonia Potential change Precipitation intensity Ross Sea South America Southern Annular Mode Southern Ocean Subtropical anticyclone Temperature index Atmospheric pressure Drought Gas fuel analysis Global warming Greenhouse gases Oceanography Climate models anthropogenic effect anticyclone climate change climate modeling ensemble forecasting greenhouse gas Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature effect temporal period Bellingshausen Sea |
spellingShingle |
Anthropogenic climate change] Banded structures Dry spells Extratropics Frost days Future climate Midlatitudes Multi-model ensemble Non-uniform distribution Patagonia Potential change Precipitation intensity Ross Sea South America Southern Annular Mode Southern Ocean Subtropical anticyclone Temperature index Atmospheric pressure Drought Gas fuel analysis Global warming Greenhouse gases Oceanography Climate models anthropogenic effect anticyclone climate change climate modeling ensemble forecasting greenhouse gas Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature effect temporal period Bellingshausen Sea Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
topic_facet |
Anthropogenic climate change] Banded structures Dry spells Extratropics Frost days Future climate Midlatitudes Multi-model ensemble Non-uniform distribution Patagonia Potential change Precipitation intensity Ross Sea South America Southern Annular Mode Southern Ocean Subtropical anticyclone Temperature index Atmospheric pressure Drought Gas fuel analysis Global warming Greenhouse gases Oceanography Climate models anthropogenic effect anticyclone climate change climate modeling ensemble forecasting greenhouse gas Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature effect temporal period Bellingshausen Sea |
description |
We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss how the anthropogenic climate change under A1B scenario influences both the patterns of mean change of extreme indices and the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme indices. The likelihood of occurrence of a year with a large number of days with "warm" minimum temperatures is estimated to increase by a factor of 4 by the end of this century over most of the southern extratropics. By that time, the risk of "severe" precipitation intensity is projected to rise in most areas with the exception of the subtropical anticyclones, which experience particularly strong drying. Over the Southern Ocean this likelihood has increased to over 60%. Corresponding estimates of the changing likelihood for very long dry spells show a banded structure with positive ratios to the north of about 50° S and negative ratios in the sub Antarctic seas. In southern South America this risk about doubled between present and future climates. Then, we explore if the Southern Annular Mode influences the occurrence of severe extreme indices during the period 2070-2099. Its positive phase inhibits the extremely warm minimum temperatures in the Southern Ocean, with the exception of the eastern Bellingshausen Sea, and favors severe frost days to the north of the Ross Sea. Temperature indices show very little change induced by the SAM to the north of 50° S. Severe dry spells are inhibited during the positive phase along the sub Antarctic seas, while the mid-latitudes, including most of Patagonia, show the opposite behaviour. The Southern Ocean reveals a non-uniform distribution with both increases and decreases in the occurrence of heavier precipitation during positive SAM. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009. |
title |
Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
title_short |
Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
title_full |
Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
title_sort |
potential changes in extremes and links with the southern annular mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p359_Menendez https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p359_Menendez |
geographic |
Antarctic Bellingshausen Sea Patagonia Ross Sea Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Bellingshausen Sea Patagonia Ross Sea Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Bellingshausen Sea Ross Sea Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Bellingshausen Sea Ross Sea Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p359_Menendez http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p359_Menendez |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p359_Menendez |
_version_ |
1766167770390593536 |