Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard
Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Betwe...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11585/883763 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04692-w |
id |
ftunibolognairis:oai:cris.unibo.it:11585/883763 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunibolognairis:oai:cris.unibo.it:11585/883763 2024-04-14T08:04:37+00:00 Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard Vousdoukas M. I. Mentaschi L. Voukouvalas E. Verlaan M. Jevrejeva S. Jackson L. P. Feyen L. Vousdoukas M.I. Mentaschi L. Voukouvalas E. Verlaan M. Jevrejeva S. Jackson L.P. Feyen L. 2018 ELETTRONICO http://hdl.handle.net/11585/883763 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04692-w eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/29915265 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000435451000001 volume:9 issue:1 firstpage:1 lastpage:12 numberofpages:12 journal:NATURE COMMUNICATIONS info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603864 http://hdl.handle.net/11585/883763 doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85048774847 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04692-w info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Climate Changes Coastal Hazard Sea Leve Rise Extreme Sea Level info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2018 ftunibolognairis https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w 2024-03-21T18:54:17Z Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34-76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58-172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) Greenland Nature Communications 9 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) |
op_collection_id |
ftunibolognairis |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate Changes Coastal Hazard Sea Leve Rise Extreme Sea Level |
spellingShingle |
Climate Changes Coastal Hazard Sea Leve Rise Extreme Sea Level Vousdoukas M. I. Mentaschi L. Voukouvalas E. Verlaan M. Jevrejeva S. Jackson L. P. Feyen L. Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard |
topic_facet |
Climate Changes Coastal Hazard Sea Leve Rise Extreme Sea Level |
description |
Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34-76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58-172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken. |
author2 |
Vousdoukas M.I. Mentaschi L. Voukouvalas E. Verlaan M. Jevrejeva S. Jackson L.P. Feyen L. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vousdoukas M. I. Mentaschi L. Voukouvalas E. Verlaan M. Jevrejeva S. Jackson L. P. Feyen L. |
author_facet |
Vousdoukas M. I. Mentaschi L. Voukouvalas E. Verlaan M. Jevrejeva S. Jackson L. P. Feyen L. |
author_sort |
Vousdoukas M. I. |
title |
Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard |
title_short |
Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard |
title_full |
Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard |
title_fullStr |
Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard |
title_sort |
global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11585/883763 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04692-w |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/29915265 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000435451000001 volume:9 issue:1 firstpage:1 lastpage:12 numberofpages:12 journal:NATURE COMMUNICATIONS info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603864 http://hdl.handle.net/11585/883763 doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85048774847 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04692-w |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1796301277818257408 |