Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions
This study investigates the role of different areas of the ocean in driving the climate variability. The impact of both global and regional ocean nudging on the climate reconstruction obtained with the climate model EC-Earth v2.3 is studied over the period 1960–2012. Ocean temperature and salinity b...
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ftunibolognairis:oai:cris.unibo.it:11585/842296 2024-02-11T10:08:32+01:00 Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions Carrassi A. Guemas V. Doblas-Reyes F. J. Volpi D. Asif M. Carrassi A. Guemas V. Doblas-Reyes F.J. Volpi D. Asif M. 2016 STAMPA http://hdl.handle.net/11585/842296 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3036-4 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000389605700006 volume:47 issue:12 firstpage:3693 lastpage:3712 numberofpages:20 journal:CLIMATE DYNAMICS http://hdl.handle.net/11585/842296 doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3036-4 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84960092003 Climate dynamic Initialization method Seasonal-to-decadal prediction info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2016 ftunibolognairis https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3036-4 2024-01-24T17:59:59Z This study investigates the role of different areas of the ocean in driving the climate variability. The impact of both global and regional ocean nudging on the climate reconstruction obtained with the climate model EC-Earth v2.3 is studied over the period 1960–2012. Ocean temperature and salinity below the mixed layer are relaxed toward the monthly averages from the ORAS4 ocean reanalysis. Three coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations are considered: (1) global ocean nudging, (2) nudging in the global upper ocean (above 2000m) and (3) nudging in the mid-latitude ocean and at full ocean depth. The experimental setup allows for identifying local and remote effects of nudging on different geographical areas. The validation is based on the correlation coefficients and the root mean square error skill score and concerns the following variables: ocean heat content, ocean barotropic streamfunction, intensity of the ocean gyres and indexes of convection, sea ice extension, near-surface air and sea surface temperature, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation 3.4 index. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) the positive impact on the reconstruction of the ocean state is found almost everywhere and for most of the analyzed variables, including unconstrained variables and/or regions, (2) deep-ocean nudging shows low impact on sea-surface temperature but a significant impact on the ocean circulation, (3) mid-latitude ocean nudging shows systematically the worst performance pointing at the importance of the poles and tropics in reconstructing the global ocean. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) Climate Dynamics 47 12 3693 3712 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) |
op_collection_id |
ftunibolognairis |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate dynamic Initialization method Seasonal-to-decadal prediction |
spellingShingle |
Climate dynamic Initialization method Seasonal-to-decadal prediction Carrassi A. Guemas V. Doblas-Reyes F. J. Volpi D. Asif M. Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions |
topic_facet |
Climate dynamic Initialization method Seasonal-to-decadal prediction |
description |
This study investigates the role of different areas of the ocean in driving the climate variability. The impact of both global and regional ocean nudging on the climate reconstruction obtained with the climate model EC-Earth v2.3 is studied over the period 1960–2012. Ocean temperature and salinity below the mixed layer are relaxed toward the monthly averages from the ORAS4 ocean reanalysis. Three coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations are considered: (1) global ocean nudging, (2) nudging in the global upper ocean (above 2000m) and (3) nudging in the mid-latitude ocean and at full ocean depth. The experimental setup allows for identifying local and remote effects of nudging on different geographical areas. The validation is based on the correlation coefficients and the root mean square error skill score and concerns the following variables: ocean heat content, ocean barotropic streamfunction, intensity of the ocean gyres and indexes of convection, sea ice extension, near-surface air and sea surface temperature, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation 3.4 index. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) the positive impact on the reconstruction of the ocean state is found almost everywhere and for most of the analyzed variables, including unconstrained variables and/or regions, (2) deep-ocean nudging shows low impact on sea-surface temperature but a significant impact on the ocean circulation, (3) mid-latitude ocean nudging shows systematically the worst performance pointing at the importance of the poles and tropics in reconstructing the global ocean. |
author2 |
Carrassi A. Guemas V. Doblas-Reyes F.J. Volpi D. Asif M. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Carrassi A. Guemas V. Doblas-Reyes F. J. Volpi D. Asif M. |
author_facet |
Carrassi A. Guemas V. Doblas-Reyes F. J. Volpi D. Asif M. |
author_sort |
Carrassi A. |
title |
Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions |
title_short |
Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions |
title_full |
Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions |
title_fullStr |
Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions |
title_sort |
sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11585/842296 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3036-4 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000389605700006 volume:47 issue:12 firstpage:3693 lastpage:3712 numberofpages:20 journal:CLIMATE DYNAMICS http://hdl.handle.net/11585/842296 doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3036-4 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84960092003 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3036-4 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
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47 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
3693 |
op_container_end_page |
3712 |
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1790607921604722688 |