The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)
The NEAMTsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedica...
Published in: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2021
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11585/838011 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.616594 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2020.616594/full |
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ftunibolognairis:oai:cris.unibo.it:11585/838011 |
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Open Polar |
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IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) |
op_collection_id |
ftunibolognairis |
language |
English |
topic |
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment earthquake-generated tsunami hazard uncertainty analysis ensemble modeling maximum inundation height NEAM |
spellingShingle |
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment earthquake-generated tsunami hazard uncertainty analysis ensemble modeling maximum inundation height NEAM Roberto Basili Beatriz Brizuela André Herrero Sarfraz Iqbal Stefano Lorito Francesco Emanuele Maesano Shane Murphy Paolo Perfetti Fabrizio Romano Antonio Scala Jacopo Selva Matteo Taroni Mara Monica Tiberti Hong Kie Thio Roberto Tonini Manuela Volpe Sylfest Glimsdal Carl Bonnevie Harbitz Finn Løvholt Maria Ana Baptista Fernando Carrilho Luis Manuel Matias Rachid Omira Andrey Babeyko Andreas Hoechner Mücahit Gürbüz Onur Pekcan Ahmet Yalçıner Miquel Canals Galderic Lastras Apostolos Agalos Gerassimos Papadopoulos Ioanna Triantafyllou Sabah Benchekroun Hedi Agrebi Jaouadi Samir Ben Abdallah Atef Bouallegue Hassene Hamdi Foued Oueslati Alessandro Amato Alberto Armigliato Jörn Behrens Gareth Davies Daniela Di Bucci Mauro Dolce Eric Geist Jose Manuel Gonzalez Vida Mauricio González Jorge Macías Sánchez Carlo Meletti Ceren Ozer Sozdinler Marco Pagani Tom Parsons Jascha Polet William Power Mathilde Sørensen Andrey Zaytsev The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) |
topic_facet |
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment earthquake-generated tsunami hazard uncertainty analysis ensemble modeling maximum inundation height NEAM |
description |
The NEAMTsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAMRegion, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website ... |
author2 |
Roberto Basili, Beatriz Brizuela, André Herrero, Sarfraz Iqbal, Stefano Lorito, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Shane Murphy, Paolo Perfetti, Fabrizio Romano, Antonio Scala, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Mara Monica Tiberti, Hong Kie Thio, Roberto Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Sylfest Glimsdal, Carl Bonnevie Harbitz, Finn Løvholt, Maria Ana Baptista, Fernando Carrilho, Luis Manuel Matias, Rachid Omira, Andrey Babeyko, Andreas Hoechner, Mücahit Gürbüz, Onur Pekcan, Ahmet Yalçıner, Miquel Canals, Galderic Lastras, Apostolos Agalos, Gerassimos Papadopoulos, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Sabah Benchekroun, Hedi Agrebi Jaouadi, Samir Ben Abdallah, Atef Bouallegue, Hassene Hamdi, Foued Oueslati, Alessandro Amato, Alberto Armigliato, Jörn Behrens, Gareth Davies, Daniela Di Bucci, Mauro Dolce, Eric Geist, Jose Manuel Gonzalez Vida, Mauricio González, Jorge Macías Sánchez, Carlo Meletti, Ceren Ozer Sozdinler, Marco Pagani, Tom Parsons, Jascha Polet, William Power, Mathilde Sørensen, Andrey Zaytsev |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Roberto Basili Beatriz Brizuela André Herrero Sarfraz Iqbal Stefano Lorito Francesco Emanuele Maesano Shane Murphy Paolo Perfetti Fabrizio Romano Antonio Scala Jacopo Selva Matteo Taroni Mara Monica Tiberti Hong Kie Thio Roberto Tonini Manuela Volpe Sylfest Glimsdal Carl Bonnevie Harbitz Finn Løvholt Maria Ana Baptista Fernando Carrilho Luis Manuel Matias Rachid Omira Andrey Babeyko Andreas Hoechner Mücahit Gürbüz Onur Pekcan Ahmet Yalçıner Miquel Canals Galderic Lastras Apostolos Agalos Gerassimos Papadopoulos Ioanna Triantafyllou Sabah Benchekroun Hedi Agrebi Jaouadi Samir Ben Abdallah Atef Bouallegue Hassene Hamdi Foued Oueslati Alessandro Amato Alberto Armigliato Jörn Behrens Gareth Davies Daniela Di Bucci Mauro Dolce Eric Geist Jose Manuel Gonzalez Vida Mauricio González Jorge Macías Sánchez Carlo Meletti Ceren Ozer Sozdinler Marco Pagani Tom Parsons Jascha Polet William Power Mathilde Sørensen Andrey Zaytsev |
author_facet |
Roberto Basili Beatriz Brizuela André Herrero Sarfraz Iqbal Stefano Lorito Francesco Emanuele Maesano Shane Murphy Paolo Perfetti Fabrizio Romano Antonio Scala Jacopo Selva Matteo Taroni Mara Monica Tiberti Hong Kie Thio Roberto Tonini Manuela Volpe Sylfest Glimsdal Carl Bonnevie Harbitz Finn Løvholt Maria Ana Baptista Fernando Carrilho Luis Manuel Matias Rachid Omira Andrey Babeyko Andreas Hoechner Mücahit Gürbüz Onur Pekcan Ahmet Yalçıner Miquel Canals Galderic Lastras Apostolos Agalos Gerassimos Papadopoulos Ioanna Triantafyllou Sabah Benchekroun Hedi Agrebi Jaouadi Samir Ben Abdallah Atef Bouallegue Hassene Hamdi Foued Oueslati Alessandro Amato Alberto Armigliato Jörn Behrens Gareth Davies Daniela Di Bucci Mauro Dolce Eric Geist Jose Manuel Gonzalez Vida Mauricio González Jorge Macías Sánchez Carlo Meletti Ceren Ozer Sozdinler Marco Pagani Tom Parsons Jascha Polet William Power Mathilde Sørensen Andrey Zaytsev |
author_sort |
Roberto Basili |
title |
The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) |
title_short |
The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) |
title_full |
The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) |
title_fullStr |
The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) |
title_sort |
making of the neam tsunami hazard model 2018 (neamthm18) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11585/838011 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.616594 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2020.616594/full |
genre |
North East Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North East Atlantic |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000630363500001 volume:8 firstpage:1 lastpage:29 numberofpages:29 journal:FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE http://hdl.handle.net/11585/838011 doi:10.3389/feart.2020.616594 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85102920630 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2020.616594/full |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.616594 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Earth Science |
container_volume |
8 |
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1810465200331030528 |
spelling |
ftunibolognairis:oai:cris.unibo.it:11585/838011 2024-09-15T18:24:46+00:00 The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) Roberto Basili Beatriz Brizuela André Herrero Sarfraz Iqbal Stefano Lorito Francesco Emanuele Maesano Shane Murphy Paolo Perfetti Fabrizio Romano Antonio Scala Jacopo Selva Matteo Taroni Mara Monica Tiberti Hong Kie Thio Roberto Tonini Manuela Volpe Sylfest Glimsdal Carl Bonnevie Harbitz Finn Løvholt Maria Ana Baptista Fernando Carrilho Luis Manuel Matias Rachid Omira Andrey Babeyko Andreas Hoechner Mücahit Gürbüz Onur Pekcan Ahmet Yalçıner Miquel Canals Galderic Lastras Apostolos Agalos Gerassimos Papadopoulos Ioanna Triantafyllou Sabah Benchekroun Hedi Agrebi Jaouadi Samir Ben Abdallah Atef Bouallegue Hassene Hamdi Foued Oueslati Alessandro Amato Alberto Armigliato Jörn Behrens Gareth Davies Daniela Di Bucci Mauro Dolce Eric Geist Jose Manuel Gonzalez Vida Mauricio González Jorge Macías Sánchez Carlo Meletti Ceren Ozer Sozdinler Marco Pagani Tom Parsons Jascha Polet William Power Mathilde Sørensen Andrey Zaytsev Roberto Basili, Beatriz Brizuela, André Herrero, Sarfraz Iqbal, Stefano Lorito, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Shane Murphy, Paolo Perfetti, Fabrizio Romano, Antonio Scala, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Mara Monica Tiberti, Hong Kie Thio, Roberto Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Sylfest Glimsdal, Carl Bonnevie Harbitz, Finn Løvholt, Maria Ana Baptista, Fernando Carrilho, Luis Manuel Matias, Rachid Omira, Andrey Babeyko, Andreas Hoechner, Mücahit Gürbüz, Onur Pekcan, Ahmet Yalçıner, Miquel Canals, Galderic Lastras, Apostolos Agalos, Gerassimos Papadopoulos, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Sabah Benchekroun, Hedi Agrebi Jaouadi, Samir Ben Abdallah, Atef Bouallegue, Hassene Hamdi, Foued Oueslati, Alessandro Amato, Alberto Armigliato, Jörn Behrens, Gareth Davies, Daniela Di Bucci, Mauro Dolce, Eric Geist, Jose Manuel Gonzalez Vida, Mauricio González, Jorge Macías Sánchez, Carlo Meletti, Ceren Ozer Sozdinler, Marco Pagani, Tom Parsons, Jascha Polet, William Power, Mathilde Sørensen, Andrey Zaytsev 2021 ELETTRONICO http://hdl.handle.net/11585/838011 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.616594 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2020.616594/full eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000630363500001 volume:8 firstpage:1 lastpage:29 numberofpages:29 journal:FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE http://hdl.handle.net/11585/838011 doi:10.3389/feart.2020.616594 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85102920630 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2020.616594/full info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment earthquake-generated tsunami hazard uncertainty analysis ensemble modeling maximum inundation height NEAM info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftunibolognairis https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.616594 2024-06-24T14:25:49Z The NEAMTsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAMRegion, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North East Atlantic IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) Frontiers in Earth Science 8 |