A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change
Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability studies tend to confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. However, this approach ignores cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact and that may sev...
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ftunibolognairis:oai:cris.unibo.it:11585/835007 2024-02-11T10:01:34+01:00 A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change Carter, Timothy R. Benzie, Magnus Campiglio, Emanuele Carlsen, Henrik Fronzek, Stefan Hildén, Mikael Reyer, Christopher P. O. West, Chris Carter, Timothy R. Benzie, Magnu Campiglio, Emanuele Carlsen, Henrik Fronzek, Stefan Hildén, Mikael Reyer, Christopher P.O. West, Chris 2021 STAMPA https://hdl.handle.net/11585/835007 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102307 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021000868 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000683333100006 volume:69 firstpage:1 lastpage:14 numberofpages:14 journal:GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821010 https://hdl.handle.net/11585/835007 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102307 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85107753532 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021000868 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Risk propagation Adaptation Response Climate trigger Cascading impacts Complex system info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftunibolognairis https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102307 2024-01-24T17:59:50Z Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability studies tend to confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. However, this approach ignores cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact and that may severely disrupt societies and livelihoods. We propose a conceptual framework and accompanying nomenclature for describing and analysing such cross-border impacts. The conceptual framework distinguishes an initial impact that is caused by a climate trigger within a specific region. Downstream consequences of that impact propagate through an impact transmission system while adaptation responses to deal with the impact propagate through a response transmission system. A key to understanding cross-border impacts and responses is a recognition of different types of climate triggers, categories of cross-border impacts, the scales and dynamics of impact transmission, the targets and dynamics of responses and the socio-economic and environmental context that also encompasses factors and processes unrelated to climate change. These insights can then provide a basis for identifying relevant causal relationships. We apply the framework to the floods that affected industrial production in Thailand in 2011, and to projected Arctic sea ice decline, and demonstrate that the framework can usefully capture the complex system dynamics of cross-border climate impacts. It also provides a useful mechanism to identify and understand adaptation strategies and their potential consequences in the wider context of resilience planning. The cross-border dimensions of climate impacts could become increasingly important as climate changes intensify. We conclude that our framework will allow for these to be properly accounted for, help to identify new areas of empirical and model-based research and thereby support climate risk management. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Sea ice IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) Arctic Global Environmental Change 69 102307 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) |
op_collection_id |
ftunibolognairis |
language |
English |
topic |
Risk propagation Adaptation Response Climate trigger Cascading impacts Complex system |
spellingShingle |
Risk propagation Adaptation Response Climate trigger Cascading impacts Complex system Carter, Timothy R. Benzie, Magnus Campiglio, Emanuele Carlsen, Henrik Fronzek, Stefan Hildén, Mikael Reyer, Christopher P. O. West, Chris A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change |
topic_facet |
Risk propagation Adaptation Response Climate trigger Cascading impacts Complex system |
description |
Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability studies tend to confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. However, this approach ignores cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact and that may severely disrupt societies and livelihoods. We propose a conceptual framework and accompanying nomenclature for describing and analysing such cross-border impacts. The conceptual framework distinguishes an initial impact that is caused by a climate trigger within a specific region. Downstream consequences of that impact propagate through an impact transmission system while adaptation responses to deal with the impact propagate through a response transmission system. A key to understanding cross-border impacts and responses is a recognition of different types of climate triggers, categories of cross-border impacts, the scales and dynamics of impact transmission, the targets and dynamics of responses and the socio-economic and environmental context that also encompasses factors and processes unrelated to climate change. These insights can then provide a basis for identifying relevant causal relationships. We apply the framework to the floods that affected industrial production in Thailand in 2011, and to projected Arctic sea ice decline, and demonstrate that the framework can usefully capture the complex system dynamics of cross-border climate impacts. It also provides a useful mechanism to identify and understand adaptation strategies and their potential consequences in the wider context of resilience planning. The cross-border dimensions of climate impacts could become increasingly important as climate changes intensify. We conclude that our framework will allow for these to be properly accounted for, help to identify new areas of empirical and model-based research and thereby support climate risk management. |
author2 |
Carter, Timothy R. Benzie, Magnu Campiglio, Emanuele Carlsen, Henrik Fronzek, Stefan Hildén, Mikael Reyer, Christopher P.O. West, Chris |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Carter, Timothy R. Benzie, Magnus Campiglio, Emanuele Carlsen, Henrik Fronzek, Stefan Hildén, Mikael Reyer, Christopher P. O. West, Chris |
author_facet |
Carter, Timothy R. Benzie, Magnus Campiglio, Emanuele Carlsen, Henrik Fronzek, Stefan Hildén, Mikael Reyer, Christopher P. O. West, Chris |
author_sort |
Carter, Timothy R. |
title |
A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change |
title_short |
A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change |
title_full |
A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change |
title_fullStr |
A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change |
title_sort |
conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11585/835007 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102307 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021000868 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000683333100006 volume:69 firstpage:1 lastpage:14 numberofpages:14 journal:GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821010 https://hdl.handle.net/11585/835007 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102307 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85107753532 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021000868 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102307 |
container_title |
Global Environmental Change |
container_volume |
69 |
container_start_page |
102307 |
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1790597360040017920 |