Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea
Marine cold-air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (a) the ability of a seasonal prediction system...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11585/821589 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.4038 |
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ftunibolognairis:oai:cris.unibo.it:11585/821589 2024-04-14T08:07:50+00:00 Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea Polkova, Iuliia Afargan‐Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna Polkova*, Iuliia Afargan‐Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Pano Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna 2021 ELETTRONICO https://hdl.handle.net/11585/821589 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.4038 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000653678700001 volume:147 issue:738 firstpage:2638 lastpage:2656 numberofpages:19 journal:QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY https://hdl.handle.net/11585/821589 doi:10.1002/qj.4038 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85106280091 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.4038 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Arctic climate causal driver marine cold air outbreak polar low seasonal prediction info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftunibolognairis https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 2024-03-21T18:37:04Z Marine cold-air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (a) the ability of a seasonal prediction system to predict MCAOs and (b) the possibilities to improve predictions through large-scale causal drivers. Our results show that the seasonal ensemble predictions have high prediction skill for MCAOs over the Nordic Seas for about 20 days starting from November initial conditions. To study causal drivers of MCAOs, we utilize a causal effect network approach applied to the atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim and identify local sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns over Scandinavia as valuable predictors. Prediction skill for MCAOs is further improved up to 40 days by including MCAO predictors in the analysis. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Barents Sea Nordic Seas IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) Arctic Barents Sea Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) |
op_collection_id |
ftunibolognairis |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic climate causal driver marine cold air outbreak polar low seasonal prediction |
spellingShingle |
Arctic climate causal driver marine cold air outbreak polar low seasonal prediction Polkova, Iuliia Afargan‐Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
topic_facet |
Arctic climate causal driver marine cold air outbreak polar low seasonal prediction |
description |
Marine cold-air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (a) the ability of a seasonal prediction system to predict MCAOs and (b) the possibilities to improve predictions through large-scale causal drivers. Our results show that the seasonal ensemble predictions have high prediction skill for MCAOs over the Nordic Seas for about 20 days starting from November initial conditions. To study causal drivers of MCAOs, we utilize a causal effect network approach applied to the atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim and identify local sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns over Scandinavia as valuable predictors. Prediction skill for MCAOs is further improved up to 40 days by including MCAO predictors in the analysis. |
author2 |
Polkova*, Iuliia Afargan‐Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Pano Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Polkova, Iuliia Afargan‐Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna |
author_facet |
Polkova, Iuliia Afargan‐Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna |
author_sort |
Polkova, Iuliia |
title |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_short |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_full |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_fullStr |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_sort |
predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the barents sea |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11585/821589 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.4038 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea Nordic Seas |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Nordic Seas |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000653678700001 volume:147 issue:738 firstpage:2638 lastpage:2656 numberofpages:19 journal:QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY https://hdl.handle.net/11585/821589 doi:10.1002/qj.4038 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85106280091 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.4038 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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1796305230898397184 |