Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events
Marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the northeastern North Atlantic occur due to the advection of extremely cold air over an ice-free ocean. MCAOs are associated with a range of severe weather phenomena, such as polar lows, strong surface winds and intense cooling of the ocean surface. Given these...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11585/782399 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/1/541/2020/ |
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ftunibolognairis:oai:cris.unibo.it:11585/782399 2024-04-14T08:08:21+00:00 Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events Hilla Afargan-Gerstman Iuliia Polkova Lukas Papritz Paolo Ruggieri Martin P. King Panos J. Athanasiadis Johanna Baehr Daniela I. V. Domeisen Hilla Afargan-Gerstman Iuliia Polkova Lukas Papritz Paolo Ruggieri Martin P. King Panos J. Athanasiadi Johanna Baehr Daniela I. V. Domeisen 2020 ELETTRONICO https://hdl.handle.net/11585/782399 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/1/541/2020/ eng eng volume:1 issue:2 firstpage:541 lastpage:553 numberofpages:13 journal:WEATHER AND CLIMATE DYNAMICS (ONLINE) https://hdl.handle.net/11585/782399 doi:10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85103210378 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/1/541/2020/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess cold air outbreaks info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2020 ftunibolognairis https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020 2024-03-21T18:29:55Z Marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the northeastern North Atlantic occur due to the advection of extremely cold air over an ice-free ocean. MCAOs are associated with a range of severe weather phenomena, such as polar lows, strong surface winds and intense cooling of the ocean surface. Given these extreme impacts, the identification of precursors of MCAOs is crucial for improved long-range prediction of associated impacts on Arctic infrastructure and human lives. MCAO frequency has been linked to the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex, but the study of connections to the occurrence of extreme stratospheric events, known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), has been limited to cold extremes over land. Here, the influence of SSW events on MCAOs over the North Atlantic ocean is studied using reanalysis datasets. Overall, SSW events are found to be associated with more frequent MCAOs in the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea compared to climatology and less frequent MCAOs in the Labrador Sea. In particular, SSW events project onto an anomalous dipole pattern of geopotential height 500 hPa, which consists of a ridge anomaly over Greenland and a trough anomaly over Scandinavia. By affecting the variability of the large-scale circulation patterns in the North Atlantic, SSW events contribute to the strong northerly flow over the Barents and Norwegian seas and thereby increase the likelihood of MCAOs in these regions. In contrast, the positive geopotential height anomaly over Greenland reduces the probability of MCAOs in the Labrador Sea after SSW events. As SSW events tend to have a long-term influence on surface weather, these results are expected to benefit the predictability of MCAOs in the Nordic Seas for winters with SSW events. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Barents Sea Greenland Labrador Sea Nordic Seas North Atlantic Norwegian Sea IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) Arctic Barents Sea Greenland Norwegian Sea Weather and Climate Dynamics 1 2 541 553 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) |
op_collection_id |
ftunibolognairis |
language |
English |
topic |
cold air outbreaks |
spellingShingle |
cold air outbreaks Hilla Afargan-Gerstman Iuliia Polkova Lukas Papritz Paolo Ruggieri Martin P. King Panos J. Athanasiadis Johanna Baehr Daniela I. V. Domeisen Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events |
topic_facet |
cold air outbreaks |
description |
Marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the northeastern North Atlantic occur due to the advection of extremely cold air over an ice-free ocean. MCAOs are associated with a range of severe weather phenomena, such as polar lows, strong surface winds and intense cooling of the ocean surface. Given these extreme impacts, the identification of precursors of MCAOs is crucial for improved long-range prediction of associated impacts on Arctic infrastructure and human lives. MCAO frequency has been linked to the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex, but the study of connections to the occurrence of extreme stratospheric events, known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), has been limited to cold extremes over land. Here, the influence of SSW events on MCAOs over the North Atlantic ocean is studied using reanalysis datasets. Overall, SSW events are found to be associated with more frequent MCAOs in the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea compared to climatology and less frequent MCAOs in the Labrador Sea. In particular, SSW events project onto an anomalous dipole pattern of geopotential height 500 hPa, which consists of a ridge anomaly over Greenland and a trough anomaly over Scandinavia. By affecting the variability of the large-scale circulation patterns in the North Atlantic, SSW events contribute to the strong northerly flow over the Barents and Norwegian seas and thereby increase the likelihood of MCAOs in these regions. In contrast, the positive geopotential height anomaly over Greenland reduces the probability of MCAOs in the Labrador Sea after SSW events. As SSW events tend to have a long-term influence on surface weather, these results are expected to benefit the predictability of MCAOs in the Nordic Seas for winters with SSW events. |
author2 |
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman Iuliia Polkova Lukas Papritz Paolo Ruggieri Martin P. King Panos J. Athanasiadi Johanna Baehr Daniela I. V. Domeisen |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman Iuliia Polkova Lukas Papritz Paolo Ruggieri Martin P. King Panos J. Athanasiadis Johanna Baehr Daniela I. V. Domeisen |
author_facet |
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman Iuliia Polkova Lukas Papritz Paolo Ruggieri Martin P. King Panos J. Athanasiadis Johanna Baehr Daniela I. V. Domeisen |
author_sort |
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman |
title |
Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events |
title_short |
Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events |
title_full |
Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events |
title_fullStr |
Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events |
title_sort |
stratospheric influence on north atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11585/782399 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/1/541/2020/ |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea Greenland Norwegian Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Greenland Norwegian Sea |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea Greenland Labrador Sea Nordic Seas North Atlantic Norwegian Sea |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Greenland Labrador Sea Nordic Seas North Atlantic Norwegian Sea |
op_relation |
volume:1 issue:2 firstpage:541 lastpage:553 numberofpages:13 journal:WEATHER AND CLIMATE DYNAMICS (ONLINE) https://hdl.handle.net/11585/782399 doi:10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85103210378 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/1/541/2020/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
1 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
541 |
op_container_end_page |
553 |
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