The gravitationally consistent sea-level fingerprint of future terrestrial ice loss
[1] We solve the sea-level equation to investigate the pattern of the gravitationally self-consistent sea-level variations (fingerprints) corresponding to modeled scenarios of future terrestrial ice melt. These were obtained from separate ice dynamics and surface mass balance models for the Greenlan...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11585/771771 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053000 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL053000/abstract;jsessionid=C01BD607B1D46455AB79C9009CD4C072.f01t04?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false |
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ftunibolognairis:oai:cris.unibo.it:11585/771771 2024-05-19T07:31:31+00:00 The gravitationally consistent sea-level fingerprint of future terrestrial ice loss SPADA, GIORGIO J. L. Bamber R. T. W. L. Hurkmans SPADA, GIORGIO J. L. Bamber R. T. W. L. Hurkmans 2013 STAMPA http://hdl.handle.net/11585/771771 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053000 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL053000/abstract;jsessionid=C01BD607B1D46455AB79C9009CD4C072.f01t04?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000317831000004 volume:40 issue:3 firstpage:482 lastpage:486 numberofpages:5 journal:GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS http://hdl.handle.net/11585/771771 doi:10.1029/2012GL053000 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84874482451 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL053000/abstract;jsessionid=C01BD607B1D46455AB79C9009CD4C072.f01t04?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false Engineering controlled terms: Glacial geology Sea level Thermal expansion Antarctic ice sheet Equatorial Pacific Ocean Ice lo Mass balance model Ocean circulation Regional pattern Sealevel change Surface mass balance Engineering main heading: Ice GEOBASE Subject Index: glacier mass balance glacioisostasy ice cap oceanic circulation population density sea level change thermal expansion Regional Index: Antarctica Arctic Arctic Ocean Gre info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2013 ftunibolognairis https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053000 2024-04-26T00:22:03Z [1] We solve the sea-level equation to investigate the pattern of the gravitationally self-consistent sea-level variations (fingerprints) corresponding to modeled scenarios of future terrestrial ice melt. These were obtained from separate ice dynamics and surface mass balance models for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and by a regionalized mass balance model for glaciers and ice caps. For our mid-range scenario, the ice melt component of total sea-level change attains its largest amplitude in the equatorial oceans, where we predict a cumulative sea-level rise of ~ 25 cm and rates of change close to 3 mm/yr from ice melt alone by 2100. According to our modeling, in low-elevation densely populated coastal zones, the gravitationally consistent sea-level variations due to continental ice loss will range between 50 and 150% of the global mean. This includes the effects of glacial-isostatic adjustment, which mostly contributes across the lateral forebulge regions in North America. While the mid range ocean-averaged elastic-gravitational sea-level variations compare with those associated with thermal expansion and ocean circulation, their combination shows a complex regional pattern, where the former component dominates in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the latter in the Arctic Ocean. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Arctic Ocean glacier Greenland Ice cap Ice Sheet IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) Geophysical Research Letters 40 3 482 486 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IRIS Università degli Studi di Bologna (CRIS - Current Research Information System) |
op_collection_id |
ftunibolognairis |
language |
English |
topic |
Engineering controlled terms: Glacial geology Sea level Thermal expansion Antarctic ice sheet Equatorial Pacific Ocean Ice lo Mass balance model Ocean circulation Regional pattern Sealevel change Surface mass balance Engineering main heading: Ice GEOBASE Subject Index: glacier mass balance glacioisostasy ice cap oceanic circulation population density sea level change thermal expansion Regional Index: Antarctica Arctic Arctic Ocean Gre |
spellingShingle |
Engineering controlled terms: Glacial geology Sea level Thermal expansion Antarctic ice sheet Equatorial Pacific Ocean Ice lo Mass balance model Ocean circulation Regional pattern Sealevel change Surface mass balance Engineering main heading: Ice GEOBASE Subject Index: glacier mass balance glacioisostasy ice cap oceanic circulation population density sea level change thermal expansion Regional Index: Antarctica Arctic Arctic Ocean Gre SPADA, GIORGIO J. L. Bamber R. T. W. L. Hurkmans The gravitationally consistent sea-level fingerprint of future terrestrial ice loss |
topic_facet |
Engineering controlled terms: Glacial geology Sea level Thermal expansion Antarctic ice sheet Equatorial Pacific Ocean Ice lo Mass balance model Ocean circulation Regional pattern Sealevel change Surface mass balance Engineering main heading: Ice GEOBASE Subject Index: glacier mass balance glacioisostasy ice cap oceanic circulation population density sea level change thermal expansion Regional Index: Antarctica Arctic Arctic Ocean Gre |
description |
[1] We solve the sea-level equation to investigate the pattern of the gravitationally self-consistent sea-level variations (fingerprints) corresponding to modeled scenarios of future terrestrial ice melt. These were obtained from separate ice dynamics and surface mass balance models for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and by a regionalized mass balance model for glaciers and ice caps. For our mid-range scenario, the ice melt component of total sea-level change attains its largest amplitude in the equatorial oceans, where we predict a cumulative sea-level rise of ~ 25 cm and rates of change close to 3 mm/yr from ice melt alone by 2100. According to our modeling, in low-elevation densely populated coastal zones, the gravitationally consistent sea-level variations due to continental ice loss will range between 50 and 150% of the global mean. This includes the effects of glacial-isostatic adjustment, which mostly contributes across the lateral forebulge regions in North America. While the mid range ocean-averaged elastic-gravitational sea-level variations compare with those associated with thermal expansion and ocean circulation, their combination shows a complex regional pattern, where the former component dominates in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the latter in the Arctic Ocean. |
author2 |
SPADA, GIORGIO J. L. Bamber R. T. W. L. Hurkmans |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
SPADA, GIORGIO J. L. Bamber R. T. W. L. Hurkmans |
author_facet |
SPADA, GIORGIO J. L. Bamber R. T. W. L. Hurkmans |
author_sort |
SPADA, GIORGIO |
title |
The gravitationally consistent sea-level fingerprint of future terrestrial ice loss |
title_short |
The gravitationally consistent sea-level fingerprint of future terrestrial ice loss |
title_full |
The gravitationally consistent sea-level fingerprint of future terrestrial ice loss |
title_fullStr |
The gravitationally consistent sea-level fingerprint of future terrestrial ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
The gravitationally consistent sea-level fingerprint of future terrestrial ice loss |
title_sort |
gravitationally consistent sea-level fingerprint of future terrestrial ice loss |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11585/771771 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053000 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL053000/abstract;jsessionid=C01BD607B1D46455AB79C9009CD4C072.f01t04?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Arctic Ocean glacier Greenland Ice cap Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Arctic Ocean glacier Greenland Ice cap Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000317831000004 volume:40 issue:3 firstpage:482 lastpage:486 numberofpages:5 journal:GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS http://hdl.handle.net/11585/771771 doi:10.1029/2012GL053000 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84874482451 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL053000/abstract;jsessionid=C01BD607B1D46455AB79C9009CD4C072.f01t04?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053000 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
482 |
op_container_end_page |
486 |
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1799469384059584512 |